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We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
San Francisco 49ers Coin-Toss Questions:
- How many games do you expect George Kittle to play?
- Where do you rank Mike Evans this year?
- Who do you rank higher: Ricky Pearsall or Christian Kirk?
Q: How many games do you expect George Kittle to play?
Meng Song: Kittle is a tough competitor, so it wouldn't shock me if he were to be active and play all 17 games. That said, a likely scenario seems to be missing the first six games on PUP and returning in Week 7. Beyond that, there's a difference between games played and having elite fantasy production. Achilles tears sap explosiveness, so returning from such a major injury at 32 is worrisome. We may not see as many big YAC plays from Kittle even if he plays most of the 2026 season. His early best ball ADP in the 10th round seems about right to me, given risk vs. reward.
Maurile Tremblay: Kittle's January 14 surgery places a realistic return window between Week 1 and Week 5 of the 2026 season. Given his age and the possibility of further complications, a reasonable estimate would be somewhere between 11 and 15 regular-season games.
Andy Hicks: Kittle has played a full season just once in his nine-year career, and he missed six games last year. With him turning 33 early in the season, some decline is to be expected, though he should still make an impact. Any in-season injury is also likely to bring a longer recovery timeline, with the team taking a more cautious approach. I would project 13 games, but that may be wishful forecasting.
VERDICT: I'm expecting Kittle to play 13 games this year, based solely on the Achilles recovery.
My colleagues and I are generally aligned. It's unreasonable for anyone coming back from an Achilles tear to play a full season, but Kittle's age and injury history further compound the likelihood of missed time. The 13-game projection assumes no additional injuries. My projections have Kittle at TE15 on a total points basis but TE5 on a per-game basis; still worth targeting as long as you plan accordingly with a viable alternative in September.
