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We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Seattle Seahawks Coin-Toss Questions:
- Do you expect the Seahawks offense to improve, remain the same, or decline?
- Do you expect the Seahawks to add a running back in the draft?
- How do you foresee the rushing attempt split between the backs?
- Where do you rank Rashid Shaheed this year?
- Who do you rank higher: Rashid Shaheed or Cooper Kupp?
Q: We often underestimate the significance of coaching changes. Do you expect the Seahawks offense to improve, remain the same, or decline versus last year now that Klint Kubiak is gone?
Meng Song: Consider me skeptical of Sam Darnold's resurgence, first with Kevin O'Connell and then with Klint Kubiak. While Brian Fleury will allow some continuity coming from Kyle Shanahan's tree, he's never called plays before. On top of that, Seattle's offense struggled for much of the second half of 2025. Now, with Zach Charbonnet coming off a major injury and Ken Walker III gone, there may not be as strong a run game to relieve pressure from Darnold.
Maurile Tremblay: My expectation is a modest decline, though perhaps not as steep as you might fear given the degree of staff turnover. The case for concern starts with the sheer volume of change. Seattle is now on its third offensive coordinator in three years under Macdonald (Grubb in 2024, Kubiak in 2025, and now Fleury in 2026), compounded by the loss of quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko, who followed Kubiak to Las Vegas. Losing both the play-caller and the QB coach simultaneously is a significant hit.
The case for stability is that the Seahawks appear to have been deliberate about scheme continuity. Fleury's scheme should closely mirror Kubiak's system, given Fleury's years in Shanahan's coaching tree with the 49ers. John Benton returning as OL coach is also important, since the offensive line was a strength during the championship run and that unit benefits from coaching continuity. Still, scheme similarity on paper and execution on the field are different things. This will be Fleury's first time calling plays at the NFL level, and he's likely to have some growing pains even in a familiar system.
Andy Hicks: It should decline. A big factor in that will be the running game after losing Ken Walker III in free agency. Zach Charbonnet is also unlikely to be ready anytime soon from his torn ACL. Unless the Seahawks add a game-changing weapon in the draft, their 2026 offense risks being one-dimensional, even with players ready to contribute immediately. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's heavy usage was almost entirely attributable to Kubiak, so replicating or even approaching those numbers is nearly impossible.
VERDICT: The offense will regress.
It's not a bold call to expect the No. 3 offense to regress; that's just the natural order of things in the NFL. Even teams with coaching and roster continuity tend to regress based on shifts in schedule strength and injury luck alone. Add a new play-caller who will almost certainly be a step down from Klint Kubiak, plus the roster attrition that comes with every post-Super Bowl offseason, and the Seattle offense looks far more likely to land near league average than at the top of the standings.
Q: Do you expect the Seahawks to add a running back in the draft?
Meng Song: They have to, right? Zach Charbonnet is coming off an ACL tear, so all they have to open the season right now are Emanuel Wilson and George Holani.
Maurile Tremblay: Yes, I'd expect the Seahawks to draft a running back, potentially as early as the second or third round. Ken Walker III is gone to Kansas City. Charbonnet tore his ACL in the divisional round and may not be available until mid-to-late season, depending on how the rehab goes. That leaves Seattle entering 2026 with Emanuel Wilson, George Holani, and Cam Akers. Wilson and Holani both have appealing traits, but neither has an established track record as a lead back over a full NFL season. Kenny McIntosh is interesting if healthy, but he's coming off his own torn ACL from August, so banking on him is risky. Given that this is a team coming off a Super Bowl win with a new offensive coordinator trying to run the same wide-zone scheme, GM John Schneider almost certainly wants to give Brian Fleury a reliable early-down back who can carry the load while Charbonnet recovers. I'd guess they target a back on Day 2 with size and zone-running ability who fits the Kubiak/Shanahan mold.
Andy Hicks: Yes, and it should be with their first or second pick if it is going to be of any use in 2026. That said, they won't reach for a guy just for the sake of it. Reliable running backs can easily be obtained through trade if so required.
VERDICT: They absolutely should add a rookie back, preferably as the starter.
I completely agree with my colleagues on this one. I currently project Charbonnet to lead the backfield with 140 carries in 10 games played, but that still leaves a significant workload, particularly in the first six games, that needs to be accounted for. While I agree with Maurile that Emanuel Wilson has deep sleeper appeal, it's hard to imagine the team feeling comfortable going into the season with Wilson, a restricted free agent the Packers opted not to tender, and Holani, who has just 25 carries over two seasons.
