Kyle Pitts: The Target Volume is Undeniable

RELATED: See all of our 2026 Player Spotlights here

Better Late Than Never

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. What’s the response when you fool me four times? That’s the exact dilemma fantasy managers faced with Kyle Pitts. After failing to live up to his ADP in each of his first four seasons, he was virtually left for dead in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Then came last year, and the narrative shifted dramatically.

Just as the fantasy community finally surrendered its faith, Pitts delivered. He finished as the overall TE2 (TE6 on a per-game basis), handily outperforming the likes of Travis Kelce, Harold Fannin Jr., Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid. What made his breakout even more impressive was the environment: Atlanta finished 24th in scoring at a meager 20.8 points per game.

Despite finally fulfilling his promise, drafters remain hesitant. Pitts is currently coming off the board at TE6, which is essentially the same price tag he carried in 2023 and 2024. While that skepticism is understandable given his early-career travails, it presents a compelling buying opportunity. Pitts represents an elite fallback option if you choose not to pay the premium price for Trey McBride or Brock Bowers in the second or third rounds.

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Changes Are Afoot in Atlanta

The Falcons overhauled their organizational structure following another losing season. Former star quarterback Matt Ryan assumed the role of President of Football Operations in January, promptly parting ways with GM Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris.

In step new GM Ian Cunningham (formerly Chicago’s assistant GM) and head coach Kevin Stefanski, fresh off a six-year tenure in Cleveland.

While public opinion on Stefanski varies given Cleveland's ups and downs, his resume speaks for itself: he’s a two-time AP Coach of the Year Winner. What isn't up for debate is his tactical adaptability. Stefanski and new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees favor an offense featuring far more balanced shotgun and under-center passing, heavy play-action, and multi-tight-end sets. That's in stark contrast to outgoing OC Zac Robinson's shotgun-heavy system. All three shifts are tailor-made for Pitts.

Stefanski’s TE-Centric Passing Game

From 2020 to 2025, Stefanski’s Browns consistently operated as one of the most tight end-friendly schemes in football.

Team Tight End Usage (2020–2025) — Top 10 Sorted by Targets

During Stefanski's tenure in Cleveland, the Browns ranked:

• 2nd in Tight End Targets (907)
• 3rd in Tight End Receptions (618)
• 4th in Tight End Touchdowns (52)
• 6th in Tight End Receiving Yards (6,026)

Organizational Commitment

Prior to last season, it was fair to question whether Atlanta viewed Pitts as a foundational piece. Those doubts were put to rest when the front office applied the franchise tag to secure him for 2026.

While some speculated the tag was merely a bridge measure for the new regime to evaluate him, Pitts put those rumors to rest by signing a massive three-year, $53 million extension. The deal solidifies him as one of the highest-paid tight ends in NFL history:

• 1st in fully guaranteed money ($36 million)
• 2nd in total guarantees ($36 million)
• 3rd in average annual value ($17.7 million)

Opportunity Abounds

Historically, elite fantasy tight ends share a distinct profile. They are almost universally the No. 1 or No. 2 passing option on their team. Offenses with two dominant fantasy wide receivers rarely feature a tight end capable of pushing for top-5 overall output.

Kyle Pitts enters 2026 in an absolute target sweet spot.

Kevin Stefanski’s Team Passing Attempts per Season (2020–2025)

While Cleveland's annual volume varied based on game script and quarterback play, 573 attempts provide a solid baseline for analysis.

Atlanta recognizes it's in Year One of a multi-year rebuilding plan, and the front office allocated its offseason resources accordingly—leaving the wide receiver room full of questions beyond star Drake London. Outside of London, the depth chart is one of the least compelling units in the league.

Atlanta’s Top 7 Wide Receivers — Best Single Seasons

Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus are the clear frontrunners to round out the starting receiver slots. However, both players recorded their career-best seasons back in 2022 (garnering just 61 targets apiece) and have not approached those numbers since.

Even if every wide receiver on the roster replicates their personal career-high output, the entire wide receiver corps accounts for just 293 targets.

Add in running back Bijan Robinson, who commands a high pass-catching workload:

Bijan Robinson Target History

If we project Robinson to match his peak workload (103 targets) alongside a career-year performance from every single wide receiver (293 targets), that totals 396 targets.

Subtracting that 396 from a baseline 573 team pass attempts leaves 177 unallocated targets.

Given the structural lack of proven wide receiver depth, Pitts seeing 100–120+ targets isn't just plausible, it's mathematically necessary.

Does It Matter Who Wins QB1?

Michael Penix Jr. is still recovering from a November torn ACL and played quite poorly before getting hurt. The Falcons acquired Tua Tagovailoa this offseason as an alternative, setting up a full-blown camp competition between the two. While it’s too early to call, the reality is both quarterbacks are likely to see game action.

Some may point out that Pitts’ numbers were worse with Penix in the huddle, and that’s true. But I’m loath to make too much of that. Penix simply has to be better, or he won’t be the starter. If he isn't capable of elevating his play, it becomes a moot debate: Tagovailoa will be the guy.

Footballguys Projections

Final Thoughts

It takes a rare blend of traits to disappoint fantasy managers for four straight years and still demand attention, but Kyle Pitts’ elite athletic profile and 1,000-yard rookie campaign kept the door cracked open.

When drafters finally turned away in 2025, Pitts delivered a TE2 overall finish behind only Trey McBride. Now backed by a lucrative contract extension and an offensive staff historically devoted to heavy tight end usage, his TE6 ADP represents a viable buying opportunity.

While quarterback stability remains a risk factor, Pitts proved last season that he can produce regardless of suboptimal conditions. Atlanta’s primary path to offensive efficiency runs through three focal points: London, Robinson, and Pitts. With a locked-in target floor and top-tier talent, Pitts belongs squarely in the top-five conversation. Draft him with confidence at cost.

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