The old saying goes, "You can't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it."
It's one thing to lose your top pick to injury. It's tough to overcome, but you can work the waiver wire and try to get back into the championship race.
It's a whole different climb when your Round 1 selection severely underperforms. You can't bench them, but they are often outproduced by other players on your bench. That's the kind of bust that is hard to battle.
In an effort to avoid that kind of player, we asked the Footballguys staff for their 1st-round bust.
Two players dominated their answers.
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A quick note on staff opinions: One of the strengths of Footballguys is the range of opinions across our staff. Features like this one are designed to show you where individual analysts differ. But we don't waffle. For our final say on where we see a player, check the Footballguys Consensus Rankings, where we bring the staff together and plant a flag on how we think the players should be ranked.
Receiving 7 Votes
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota
Jason Wood: Of the players in the consensus top-12 ADP, I'd highlight Justin Jefferson as the most likely to fall short. While last year's disappointing season should be considered an outlier, expecting him to return to the top four or five at his position also feels shortsighted. Kyler Murray is better than what Minnesota had at quarterback last year, but he's still far less efficient than what Kevin O'Connell's prior quarterbacks have been. Add in a deeper bench of alternative targets, and Jefferson fits better as your WR2 than as your roster cornerstone.
Jeff Tefertiller: Ashton Jeanty was my selection before the ankle injury. While Justin Jefferson is a tremendous player, his situation is fraught with risk. The Minnesota quarterback situation is tenuous, at best. For Jefferson to reward fantasy managers' faith, he will need Kyler Murray to have a career year. Last season's poor fantasy finish was primarily due to the low touchdown count (2). But Jefferson will need to score double-digit touchdowns to live up to his ADP. The addition of Jauan Jennings will result in fewer scoring opportunities, limiting Jefferson's fantasy upside.
Maurile Tremblay: Drafting Justin Jefferson in the first round is paying for the 2020-24 version, but the 2025 line was career lows across the board, and 2026 might be frustratingly similar. The Vikings are intent on emphasizing the running game in 2026, having brought in a fullback, wide-zone staples, and a quarterback who will get designed runs while learning a complicated passing offense. Jauan Jennings was signed after tying for third in the league with seven red-zone touchdowns, so Jefferson's monopoly on targets around the goal line is in doubt as well.
Sean Settle: Justin Jefferson is simply in a bad situation right now. The inability of any quarterback to accurately throw him the ball in Minnesota is mind-boggling. The addition of Kyler Murray and his off-script play-making is going to hurt Jefferson and his traditional route-running ability. Jefferson is likely to finish with 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns with anyone under center, but paying a first-round pick for that production is not advisable.
Ben Cummins: Justin Jefferson is awesome, but his offensive environment won't improve as much this year as the masses believe. In five games last season, Kyler Murray ranked 29th in passing yards per game (192.4), 26th in pass touchdowns per game (1.2), 21st in EPA/Play (0.109), 29th in Success Rate (44.8%), 26th in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-1.5), 41st in Big Time Throw Rate (2.3), 40th in Pressure to Sack Percentage (23.9%), and 42nd in Average Depth of Target (6.4). Jefferson feels refreshed right now because JJ McCarthy is out of his life. But Murray's lackluster passing talent could quickly change his attitude when the real games begin.
Jeff Blaylock: Since De'Von Achane's average draft position has taken him out of the first round, I'll point to Justin Jefferson as this year's bust. Kyler Murray has supported exactly one fantasy WR1 in his career: DeAndre Hopkins in 2020. Otherwise, his wide receivers' best performances in the weeks he's played have barely cracked WR2 territory. If Murray isn't playing, then fantasy managers are left hoping Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy can muster enough targets to pay off Jefferson's ADP. He recorded career lows in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, catch percentage, and touchdowns with that duo as his quarterback.
Bob Harris: This isn't about talent. It's about circumstances. Even though Justin Jefferson's overall situation is better than it was last year, it's a low bar. Jefferson finished 2025 as WR20, but his 11.9-point-per-game average -- which ranked 30th -- better reflects his struggles. Sure, the ceiling is high. We've seen Jefferson deliver as a fantasy WR1 with and without quality QB play. What he does need is a quarterback he can connect with. Is Kyler Murray that guy? I remain skeptical. As Footballguy Jason Wood pointed out, Murray isn't a proven commodity and almost never produced top-10 fantasy receivers in Arizona.
Receiving 6 Votes
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
Hutchinson Brown: Christian McCaffrey is a screaming bust pick in fantasy football this season. Entering year 10 at age 30, he's coming off a career high in rush attempts and a second-place career high in targets. Adding on, he has taken a serious beating, with multiple devastating injuries, and lots and lots of touches. The odds are very much against him this season to avoid serious injury or dramatic loss of effectiveness, and he already dealt with a worrisome injury in camp. The first round is just too rich a price for a player with his level of risk.
Dave Kluge: No player in Round 1 carries more risk than Christian McCaffrey. Already dealing with "tightness" through the preseason, last year's outrageous workload is historically working against him. If healthy, he's probably going to be the top-scoring running back, as he is almost every year. But getting older, coming off a preseason injury, and facing historical usage trends make his path to recapturing that title as narrow as it's ever been.
Meng Song: I have a ton of reasons why I'm wary about drafting a 30-year-old running back 6th overall, specifically, 413 reasons. That's the number of touches Christian McCaffrey had last year, a career high. History shows that running backs who've eclipsed that 400-touch mark tend to break down the following year, whether it's due to missed time with injury or a general decline in efficiency. There are more than a few players being drafted just behind McCaffrey's current ADP who I'm more confident can carry my fantasy team in 2026 without breaking their backs -- or something else.
Jeff Haseley: Selecting Christian McCaffrey in the top half of the first round forces you to pay for elite upside while ignoring major age and workload red flags. Now 30 years old, his heavy career workload creates a high risk of unexpected injuries and efficiency drops typical of aging running backs. Spending a top-five pick on a veteran with that much wear-and-tear and lingering health concerns leaves zero margin for error if his body breaks down. Last year, he logged over 400 total touches across 311 carries and 102 receptions, adding over 900 snaps to a body that missed almost all of 2024 with Achilles and knee issues.
Will Grant: If I had the sixth or seventh pick in the 1st round this year, I'd be hoping and praying that Christian McCaffrey would be taken before I picked. When healthy, his upside is Tier 1, and in PPR leagues, he's better than most of the top receivers in the league. He's been a top five fantasy RB in three of the last four seasons, but taking him in the top five means passing on guys like Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. I'd personally take any of those three ahead of McCaffrey this season because of his downside risk.
Gary Davenport: Who to pick, who to pick? There are so many options (12 of them, in fact). But just one screams "biggest bust in fantasy football" in 2026—and that's Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers. We're talking a 30-year-old running back who just led the league in touches. The last time McCaffrey had 400 touches (2019), the next two years of his career were wiped out. Last year McCaffrey topped 2,000 total yards—the third time he has accomplished that feat. In the season following the first two occurrences, McCaffrey missed 14 games. Both times. Drafting McCaffrey in Round 1 is the equivalent of the NASA folks in Armageddon seeing the asteroid hurtling toward Earth, shrugging and saying, "Well, you never know, guys. Maybe it will be OK." It will not be OK.
