Ashton Jeanty: Solid Starter or Emerging Star?
The NFL Draft capital and college tape set the expectations for Ashton Jeanty to become an emerging star. The most productive rookie running back from the 2025 class, Jeanty delivered fantasy RB11 production.
The way I heard analysts talk about Jeanty, you'd think he was a fantasy RB4. Ryan Clark said Jeanty didn't "have it." Then there's the slew of running back analysis still stuck in Yards Per Carry Land as their primary argument. Let's not go there.
Last year, I studied Jeanty and posed the question: Is Ashton Jeanty a LaDainian Tomlinson-Tier Talent? The short answer: Not yet, but there are meaningful signs that Ashton Jeanty is a good starting running back who will get better as the Raiders get better -- specifically, the Raiders offensive line, one of the worst run-blocking units we've seen in football for a long time.
I told readers if you happen upon a dynasty GM who believes there are more top-end wide receivers with longer careers with more meaningful production, and they're ready to part ways with Ashton Jeanty for a relative discount to his initial rookie value, make that deal.
I also assured readers that if you have Ashton Jeanty and you're nervous about him, don't be. The expectations for him are high, but if you have the right historical perspective, you'll find the middle ground with his valuation in 2025 and have a balanced understanding of when to act and when to wait.
To begin the 2026 offseason, we saw the Raiders add the excellent run-blocking center, Tyler Linderbaum, and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins while drafting the talented Fernando Mendoza as the future of the franchise. Starting left guard Spencer Burford was signed to bolster the ground game.
Most of Las Vegas' free agent additions were on defense. They only drafted one offensive lineman, Trey Zuhn III, a guard-center who has a reputation as a physical run-blocker, but before a knee injury in Week 4, Zuhn was relegated to heavy sets and not the starting lineup.
After four games in 2026, Ashton Jeanty is once again fantasy RB11 Is there a reason to believe he'll take another step this year, or are the additions of Linderbaum and Burford not enough?
Ashton Jeanty Data: 2025 vs Early 2026
After the first quarter of the season, Ashton Jeanty is projected to earn 297 fantasy points -- 49 more than his RB11 total from 2025. This would have placed Jeanty above Derrick Henry at RB7 in 2025.
Ashton Jeanty's Seasons and Projected Totals
| Stat | 2025 | 2026 | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Routes | 22 | 12 | 51 |
| Explosives | 25 | 6 | 26 |
| Long | 64, 60, 51 | 28,22,19 | N/A |
| Fumble | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yd/Att | 3.6 | 3.5 | N/A |
| Yd/Rec | 6.2 | 8.7 | N/A |
| RATT | 279 | 81 | 344.25 |
| RTDs | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| RYDs | 1012 | 265 | 1122 |
| Targ | 74 | 26 | 111 |
| Rec | 56 | 19 | 81 |
| Rec Yds | 348 | 165 | 701 |
| Rec Tds | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| Drops | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| Fpts | 248 | 60 | 297 |
The positive from this tale of the tape is that Jeanty's projected 49-point increase happens even if he doesn't score a single rushing touchdown. It's likely Ashton Jeanty will see a positive regression in rushing scores during the final three quarters of the season, which could get him into the top five at his position.
Ashton Jeanty's rushing production is only projected for a modest uptick, but he's on path to double his receiving yardage, earn a 45 percent increase in receiving touchdowns, and generate a 31 percent increase in receptions.
The most important variable with these Ashton Jeanty projections is volume. Jeanty is on track to earn 65 more carries and 37 more targets in 2026.
Volume is king with fantasy data analysis, so this is a good sign. The potential trap door is production efficiency. If the Raiders decide that Jeanty is a part of the running game's problem, they might give Mike Washington Jr. more touches and the volume projections take a hit.
A lot of teams have difficulty analyzing running back play and get tangled in the committee or bell cow question. With Ashton Jeanty as a short player, there are going to be analytics people or even football coaches in the NFL who may not be as enamored with Jeanty as a full-time back, and they'll travel to Yards Per Carry Land to support their argument.