Ashton Jeanty: High Expectations
Ashton Jeanty has a value of 7,100 on Fantasycalc.com's Dynasty Trade Calculator. That's more than De'Von Achane (6,705), who has two and a half years of proven production as a starter with high-end RB1 upside if the Miami Dolphins can figure out the rest of its offense.
It's also higher than Malik Nabers (6,826), a receiver technically as talented as his LSU classmates Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase but who has to contend with an ACL rehab and a young quarterback whose vertical accuracy needs work. If the rehab proves successful, the 21-year-old Nabers likely has another 8-10 years of starter value -- a lot of it on the high end of that range.
The closest players to Ashton Jeanty on the site's curated list are veteran receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (7,863) and CeeDee Lamb (7,843) -- both receivers are 26 years old and likely have another 3-5 years of strong starter value ahead.
Achane, Nabers, St. Brown, and Lamb are players where no one would have a problem drafting them in the first round -- in some cases, as top-five picks -- in a dynasty format last April. You might have been accused of being bold to take one of these options in the top five, but you wouldn't have been laughed out of your league.
To match the expected careers of Nabers, Lamb, and St. Brown -- four receivers who have delivered seasons between 270-400 PPR points -- Ashton Jeanty must deliver 4-6 years of fantasy RB1 production, and 3-4 of those years must match the expected value seen from the top 3-5 backs, which is often 300-395 PPR points.
Ashton Jeanty's investors have lofty expectations for the rookie. So does Pete Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders, who selected him with the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.
Their decision sent the message to fans that Ashton Jeanty is a franchise cornerstone to build around. It's a bold statement considering the current state of the running back position.
Running backs often have the shortest career spans, thanks in part to high injury rates and the strain of the position. For the past 10-12 years, running backs have been seen as cheap and replaceable labor -- top talents don't matter as much as top talents at other positions.
That has been the party line in football and major media. Raiders fans are concerned that if his view of running back talent is true, Pete Carroll went to the market and returned with Ashton Jeanty -- magic beans when the fanbase expected a cow.
Ashton Jeanty: "The" Truth or "A" Truth?
Just like everything else regarding the affairs of humanity, we want to make "a" truth "the" truth. It feels good to keep things simple, especially when a truth happens to be convenient for us. We want to make it the truth for everyone.
The problem is that in many aspects of life, multiple things can be simultaneously true. It's true that running backs have the shortest career spans.
It's also true that running backs have career lengths that are as productive and lengthy as starting receivers. This is what Carroll and the Raiders are banking on with Ashton Jeanty.
Here are runners from recent years who have delivered top-24 starter production -- much of it high-end starter production for at least five seasons -- over the course of careers with at least seven seasons, which is double the average career span of an NFL player.
- Frank Gore (12) - third round
- Adrian Peterson (9) - first round
- Matt Forte (9) - second round
- Ladainian Tomlinson (8) - first round
- LeSean McCoy (8) - second round
- Alvin Kamara (8) - third round
- Marshawn Lynch (7) - first round
- Ezekiel Elliott (7) - first round
- David Montgomery (7)* - third round
- Derrick Henry (7)* - second round
- Joe Mixon (6) - second round
- Christian McCaffrey (6)* - first round
- Josh Jacobs (6)* - second round
- Saquon Barkley (6)* - first round
- Aaron Jones Sr. (6) - fifth round
- Todd Gurley (6) - first round
- James Conner (6) - third round
- Nick Chubb (5) - second round
- Mark Ingram II (5) - first round
- Jamaal Charles (5) - third round
- Le'Veon Bell (5) - second round
- DeMarco Murray (5) - fifth round
- Melvin Gordon III (5) - first round
*I've counted their current standing for 2025 on the presumption that they continue producing as they have for the second half of the year. Even if they don't, it wouldn't impact their listing here.
We often lament about what it used to be like with stud running backs roaming the turf, but half of these runners are still active and productive. Good running backs from the current era would have performed well in the previous era.
Presuming Ashton Jeanty is worth the value the Raiders and dynasty leagues are giving him, does it matter when considering that wide receivers have longer careers?
Let's just see how many more wide receivers fit the same parameters as the running backs I listed above. As it turns out, I only found the same number of receivers as runners.
While I might have missed some, but I also might have missed some with the running backs, too...
- Larry Fitzgerald (11) - first round
- Mike Evans (10) - first round
- Steve Smith (9) - third round
- Davante Adams (9)* - second round
- Tyreek Hill (8) - fifth round
- Keenan Allen (8)* - fourth round
- Julio Jones (8) - first round
- Anquan Boldin (8) - second round
- DeAndre Hopkins (7) - first round
- Stefon Diggs (7) - seventh round
- Antonio Brown (7) - sixth round
- Brandon Marshall (7) - fourth round
- T.Y. Hilton (7) - third round
- A.J. Green (6) - first round
- DJ Moore (6) - first round
- Brandin Cooks (6) - first round
- Amari Cooper (6) - first round
- Demaryius Thomas (6) - first round
- DK Metcalf (5)* - second round
- A.J. Brown (5) - second round
- Tyler Lockett (5) - third round
- Jarvis Landry (5) - second round
- Julian Edelman (5) - seventh round
In addition, if I didn't count Metcalf's 2025 season as a presumption, there'd be more runners than receivers.
How does this apply to Ashton Jeanty? I don't hear nearly as many people complaining about taking wide receivers in the first round of the NFL Draft. It's one of the positions the media touts as a permissible choice in the first round.
Of the 23 RBs on the list, 9 were first-round picks. The majority -- 16 -- were taken in the first and second rounds.
Only 2 of the 23 were taken after the third round. Sure, you can always find a worthwhile running back later -- not necessarily one proven to handle a heavy workload for at least five seasons and deliver worthwhile production. Have fun with that crapshoot instead of prioritizing a talent like Ashton Jeanty.
It's telling that of the 23 WRs on this list, only 9 were first-round picks -- the same as the running backs!
The majority -- 14 -- were taken in the first and second rounds. That's right, two fewer than the running backs.
Of those 23 WRs, the NFL selected 6 of them after the third round. Relative to the RB list, we can joke that maybe folks have this idea about running backs and wide receivers reversed.
I am joking, though. The real point is that if an NFL team has evidence to believe Ashton Jeanty is a franchise-caliber player at running back and a first-round pick -- at least according to the realistic parameters I laid out above -- the lists above justify the pick relative to receivers.
Wide receivers are not the higher value proposition that the NFL media believes they are. Offensive linemen? That's where Raiders fans have a compelling argument.
There are exceptional circumstances where excellent linemen fall in the NFL Draft and become stalwarts for the offense, but body type and athletic testing matter more for linemen. There is a much wider range of body types and combinations of athletic traits that receivers and running backs can possess and still deliver in the league. The requirements to play along the line are tighter, and it makes the supply of viable linemen lower.
Ashton Jeanty as a first-round pick versus a lineman in the first round feels like putting the cart before the horse for Raiders' fans. I can't give you a definitive argument against this sentiment.
Again, "the" truth vs. "a" truth. The truth is that it's difficult to find good linemen, and fans would love to see their teams attempt to hit on one in the first round and have a Joe Thomas-level career, delivering 11 years of production -- 10 of them as a Pro-Bowl talent.
Building inside-out along the trenches as the priority is seen as the truth. The Lions did it this way. They also didn't have to draft a first-round quarterback as part of the process.
A truth is that there is no single method for building a successful franchise. The Chargers didn't have the offensive line when they drafted LaDainian Tomlinson. They also didn't have the quarterback -- they traded the rights to Michael Vick for Tomlinson and a pick that would land them Drew Brees. The line came later.
The Raiders believe they have a LaDainian Tomlinson-type talent that they can build around.
At this point, Raiders fans and dynasty GMs must hope that Ashton Jeanty is good enough for his game to expand as Pete Carroll and company add pieces. This is what the Chargers did with Tomlinson, who was more impressive on film to those who study the game than those who did the equivalent of watching NFL Red Zone and red box scores.
The Raiders are banking on the idea that the tandem of Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers will help them draw free agent talent to Las Vegas as they continue building through the draft.
Tyler Lindenbaum (technically, but unlikely), Alijah Vera-Tucker, Wyatt Teller, and Colton McKivitz could be available to bolster the Raiders by this time next year. The bigger question is whether they are right about Ashton Jeanty.
I think they are.