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Over the past three weeks, things that seemed like flukes are starting to become trends. The Los Angeles Chargers have not rebounded. The Las Vegas Raiders continue winning. We can hold onto preseason opinions, but at a certain point, realities start to overtake expectations.
Week 4 Risers
QB Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns
Going into the season, many viewed Watson as a lame duck who would get a ceremonial Week 1 start, then be promptly benched. But he's won two straight. The Browns are above .500 for the first time since 2023. Watson, while far from the player he was in Houston, is showing some of the traits that made him the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history. The slippery maneuverability and confident arm have been showing up the last couple of weeks. It's translating to fantasy production, as he's the per-game QB12 through Week 3, with his two best fantasy outings since 2022. Watson could hold this job a bit longer than expected and return strong fantasy production. He's worth a pickup in deep leagues, especially as bye weeks approach.
RB Bhayshul Tuten - Jacksonville Jaguars
This backfield may remain mercurial all season, but Tuten's pulling away and has the profile to become an elite fantasy asset. Tuten has played 49% of the offensive snaps this year compared to Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 24.7%. LeQuint Allen Jr. and Ameer Abdullah also rotate in for about 10-15% each. That depth could cap everyone's ceiling. But Tuten is an elite athlete, possessing a 97th-percentile Relative Athletic Score among running backs. His per-carry EPA, missed tackles forced, yards after contact, success, and breakaway run rates all lead the backfield. He’s reached 15-plus miles per hour on 15 of his carries, more than any other running back in the league. Rodriguez is going to vulture touchdowns. Allen and Abdullah will eat up an annoying number of targets. But Tuten's role, athleticism, and efficiency push him into the high-end RB2 conversation going forward.
TE Kenyon Sadiq - New York Jets
Tight end historically has one of the steepest learning curves of any rookie, and rookies who miss significant time in training camp often struggle to reach NFL speed. I was enamored with Sadiq's athleticism and skill set when the Jets selected him 16th overall in this year's draft. But an offseason hernia surgery caused him to miss most of training camp, and I came to terms with the idea that his rookie season would likely be a wash. I was intrigued by his Week 1 activation and even more so after he got a goal-line rushing touchdown. But when he re-injured himself later in that game, I figured that was it. He missed Week 2, and then returned in Week 3 and immediately dominated. He caught seven of eight targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. He highlighted Week 3 with an unbelievable diving touchdown grab. Sadiq is a unique prospect. He measured in a bit undersized for a typical NFL tight end, but his broad jump, vertical jump, 40-yard dash, and 10-yard split all ranked in the 99th percentile all-time. He's a positionless player who can line up attached to the line, out wide, from the slot, or in the backfield. Frank Reich and the rest of the staff are finding ways to get the ball in Sadiq's hands, and he is trending towards a potentially huge breakout.
Week 4 Fallers
QB Drake Maye - New England Patriots
The quarterback we've seen through the first three weeks of the 2026 season looks nothing like the Year 2 guy in MVP conversations who led his team to a Super Bowl last year. And while poor play can sometimes be masked by rushing and touchdowns, that hasn't been the case for Maye. He's passed for just one touchdown while throwing six interceptions. He's been sacked nine times and fumbled twice, losing one. Rushing padded his floor last year, but he is averaging just 27.3 scoreless yards per game this year. Advanced metrics tell a similar story. Only Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, and Cooper Rush have a lower passing EPA. He ranks 23rd of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in success rate. Maye is a young quarterback with a promising pedigree who has shown plenty of promise in his career. But he's the per-game QB35 in fantasy. Until the Patriots can right the ship, Maye is benchable.
WR Brian Thomas Jr. - Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 3 for the Jaguars opened with rookie Josh Cameron on the field over Thomas. They finished the game tied with 23 snaps each. Each caught just one pass, and Cameron's was a touchdown. The passing offense is funneling through Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, and Thomas is stuck in a rotation with Cameron, Brenton Strange, and rookie tight end Nate Boerkircher. To put it bluntly, he’s a part-time receiver who has been inefficient with his few opportunities. The red-hot finish to Thomas' rookie season feels like it was decades ago. He cannot find footing in Liam Coen's offense. Thomas is benchable in all leagues and droppable in shallow formats, with a trade seeming like the only thing that could resuscitate his value.
WR Quentin Johnston - Los Angeles Chargers
Johnston's usage profile isn't all that different from what we've seen through his first few years. A 19.8% target share is slightly above last year's 19% and just below his career-best 21.5%. The biggest problem has been the offense as a whole and getting the ball to him properly. Historically, targets thrown to Johnston have been on target between 67.2% and 69.2% every year he's been in the league. Through the first three weeks, that on-target percentage is 47.1%. Of 98 receivers to run ten-plus routes this year, that ranks 94th. And he's not running a new variety of downfield routes. His average target depth is actually the lowest of his career. There is something fundamentally wrong with this Chargers offense. Until they can prove to be an effective offense, Johnston is a liability in fantasy lineups.
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