You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Stick With Isaiah Crowell?
That's the question of the week for fantasy owners enjoying the Browns runner's first-month productivity. Crowell has made good on Hue Jackson's summer proclamation that the Browns' tandem of runners is as good as any that he's coached. Crowell's 6.5 yards per touch on 61 totes is an impressive data point considering that the Browns have gone through three starting quarterbacks in four weeks.
But what about his season-long outlook? Washington's defense isn't a powerhouse. Cian Fahey's feature "Pushing The Pocket" examines Crowell's season-long sustainability based on Fahey's eye in the sky:
...the Browns are better than they appear. The caveat for fantasy purposes it that their positives are almost exclusively on the offensive side of the ball.
Althuogh his fantasy value is limited by his involvement in the passing game, Crowell has just six receptions for 53 yards, Crowell's consistency as a runner in an offense that is setting him up for success should allow him to sustain his production.
The Browns have a good offensive line. The departures of Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwartz in the offseason downgraded the unit but its reputation suffered too much for losing those pieces. The left side of the line remains particularly impressive with Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio being two of the best players at their respective positions.
The clip is a textbook example of a cutback run on an off-tackle zone play. Crowell has three choices: "cram" it behind the fullback, "bounce" it outside the end, or "cutback" as he did.
One of the reasons why Crowell and the Browns offensive line have a good chance to sustain its success is the versatility of the ground game. Fahey explains that Cleveland is not just a zone-heavy team; they run a lot of power (man/gap blocking) with success.
Jackson's offense aims to keep the defense off balance. He uses different formations and different play designs to attack the defense in different ways. In the above play you can see Crowell run from shotgun with a pulling lineman out in front. On the front side of the play the Browns use a double tema before one blocker leaves the lineman to account for a linebacker. The Washington defense reacts to this play well and fills the designed running lane outsid. Crowell recognzies this and adjusts accordingly.
Crowell's lead blocker was met aggressively at the line of scrimmage. The defender ploughed into the pulling guard but in doing so gave up his balance for a split second. This allowed Crowell to attack the space inside of him with his acceleration. He was through the running lane before any defender could react.
For the long term, these four games have given us a glimpse of Crowell's potential at just 23 years of age. For the short-term, his production is the result of a combination of good individual play, quality execution on the offensive line and diverse play calling. His opponents haven't been stellar but they haven't been feeble either.
RSP subscribers know that I had Isaiah Crowell as the most talented running back in the 2014 class. If you examine Crowell's season thus far, the only "down games" in terms of yards came as a result of the Browns not giving him the ball enough. The Eagles are getting a lot of love as a tough defense but Crowell had a combined 78 yards on 14 touches in this game. After this game, Hue Jackson told the media that they needed to keep Crowell involved in the game.
One of the strengths of Crowell's game that we haven't seen this year is his ability to wear down a defense and put the dagger in the opponent with big runs at the end of the game. Crowell's highest watermark in terms of touches is 19. If the Browns can stay in games and get him in the range of 22-28, this team is likely winning the contest.
Of course, the immediate question is Crowell's fantasy outlook against the New England Patriots celebrating Tom Brady's return. Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant note that the Patriots gave up 32-134 on the ground to the Bills last week and "to date, New England averages 101.2 rushing yards allowed per game (15th in the NFL), but they have only given out two rushing scores." Those opponents include Houston, Miami, and Arizona. Of those ground games, the talent level of the Browns is closest to that of the Cardinals.
The Cardinals David Johnson earned 89 yards on 16 carries and a score and Lamar Miller earned 80 yards on 21 carries. I'm a fan of Miller's talent but if I were to place Crowell on a continuum between these two backs, I'd say that the Browns runner is a smarter runner and a more physical runner than Miller but not as physically talented as Johnson. Crowell's line is also better than both units.
My Advice: Don't overthink the "will Brady be sharp and on fire" angle in regards to Crowell. Unless the Browns make multiple mistakes in the first half of this game and they're down by more than 3 touchdowns before the first quarter is over, the offense remain patient with the run.
Look for Crowell to earn around 80 yards rushing with a ceiling of 120 yards if the Browns can stay within 14 points of the Patriots for at least 3.5 quarters of this contest. If this game goes off the rails early, Crowell's floor is 60 rushing yards. It makes him a reasonable RB2 with RB1 upside.
2. Book a Coast-to-Coast Flight This weekend on Air-Beckham, DJaX Express, U.S. Demaryius, Amari Pacific, Or Wallace Atlantic
One recurring theme I noted as I read this week's content were the smart recommendations for wide receiver-corner matchups that promised big plays. Aaron Rudnicki's "Exposed" recommends one of my faves, "DJax Express"
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS (@ BAL)
Neither Ravens cornerback is particularly intimidating, but Shareece Wright has been particularly vulnerable on the left side. Michael Crabtree, Allen Robinson, and Corey Coleman have each posted multi-TD games against this secondary the past 3 weeks. The Ravens also typically defend the TE well, so if they keep Jordan Reed in check, Jackson should rebound in a big way from last week’s low output.
Sigmund Bloom's Sleepers also has us upgrading our tickets and running to the gate while adding Mike Wallace as an equally good airline deal for a long trip:
DeSean Jackson (at BAL) - Scott Barrett of PFF pointed out on Twitter this week that Ravens corner Shareece Wright has been torched for five scores the past three weeks, and that Jackson had the second-biggest game any receiver has had against Wright back in 2013. The Ravens have given up eight scores to wide receivers in the past three weeks, and in Week 1 they faced Tyrod Taylor and a banged up Sammy Watkins. Jackson has been up and down this year, and Week 5 is pointing up.
Mike Wallace (vs WAS) - Wallace scored three times in the first two games, but failed to score in Weeks 3 and 4. Some of that is because of the re-emergence of Steve Smith, but against Washington this week, Smith and Wallace could both get fed. Wallace had a season-high nine targets against Oakland last week, and that should translate to production against a Washington pass defense that had allowed six wide outs to go for 70 or more yards before facing Cody Kessler and the Browns last week. Joe Flacco also made some noise about more deep passing this week, and Wallace has a good chance of being in the crosshairs if the Ravens dial up the long ball more this week.
While Ari Ingel doesn't like the potential for a big dose of Josh Norman on Wallace, he agrees with Rudnicki and Bloom about Jackson and makes strong points about the viability of Odell Beckham, Demaryius Thomas, and Amari Cooper in Week 5's The Docket:
- Odell Beckham Jr/a>. – It’s been a rough start to the season, but as my man Adam Harstad mentioned, through the first 4 games in 2015 he went 24/307/2 and through the first 4 games this year, he sits at 22/303/0. Essentially two touchdowns are all that separates him from last years numbers, and he’s actually dropped two easy TDs this year that he should have caught. With CB Sam Shields still out with a concussion, and with the Giants having to keep pace, look for ODB to get back to business this week. If you need more ammo … as Rich Hribar from Rotoworld mentioned in his fantastic weekly Worksheet column, “27.3 percent of the completions against the Packers have gone for 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.” ODB will get deep in this one.
- Emmanuel Sanders & Demaryius Thomas –The Falcons only good cornerback, Desmond Trufant, should see time on both of these guys as they move around the formation. He typically lines up on Sanders side of the field, but Sanders is a movable chess piece. Look for both of them to put up solid WR2 numbers with upside for much more.
- Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper –With shut down CB Jason Verrett out, fire up both of these guys as WR1 plays this week at home. Crabtree actually has the tougher matchup against PFF’s second-best CB Casey Hayward, so this could be the game Cooper finally goes off.
My Advice: I love the Odell Beckham call. Too much has been made of his emotional outbursts and not enough has been stated about the fact that he faced Josh Norman and Xavier Rhodes. Beckham won't face a cornerback of this caliber again until Week 17. I'd book a flight this week in Air-Beckham.
I also like the DeSean Jackson recommendation. He's a far more complete receiver than characterized. The bigger question to me is how healthy he is. There's a difference between healthy enough to play and healthy enough to star and he was dealing with some issues a couple of weeks ago. That said, I'd roll the dice on Jackson because of the matchup. This should be a game with 35-45 combined points.
If Paxton Lynch starts, I like the Demaryius Thomas recommendation a lot more than I do with Trevor Siemian—and I'd still start Thomas with Siemian. The reason for the difference in enthusiasm is Lynch's arm strength. While there are numerous reasons why arm strength is overrated, one of the viable reasons to like it is how a strong-armed quarterback extends the depth and width of the field in the quick game.
I noted that route depths and greater and the defense has to cover a wide part of the field against Lynch in Monday's Top 10.
When a quarterback can squeeze the ball in fast to a physical, fast receiver like Thomas, it's worth upgrading his fantasy stock—especially if Trufant isn't always on Thomas.
I agree with Ingel about Cooper because he's not just a one-dimensional deep threat and I envision yards after the catch as a big part of his game this weekend.
I'm not as enthusiastic about Wallace. Of the five, he's my least favorite. He's not a physical player and I think a player like Josh Norman won't have as much trouble against him as he did on a physical Terrelle Pryor.
3 &4. Dust off Julian Edelman, Continue riding Martellus Bennett
It has been a disappointing two weeks for fantasy owners of the Patriots receiver, who has a combined 5 receptions for 54 yards. Tom Brady's return is a reason for optimism, but how much? Sigmund Bloom and I spent most of the preseason touting the likelihood of a two-tight end, "multiple" offense that suppressed the talents of Wes Welker as in 2012 while rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez dominated.
But Gronkowski still doesn't look healthy and Joe Bryant and Mark Wimer noted in their matchups feature that Gronkowski's Wednesday Q&A with the media hints that we should remain cautious: "When I can get rolling, I'll get rolling."
Matchups highlights salient points about the Browns' passing defense:
Cleveland is currently ranked 16th in the NFL averaging 259.8 net passing yards allowed per game, and they have given out 10 passing scores in four games, vs. five interceptions and just six sacks generated (tied for fourth- and 24th-ranked in the NFL to date, respectively). Last week Kirk Cousins threw 21/27 for 156 net yards passing, three TDs and one interception thrown, with three sacks taken for -27 yards against the Browns. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has averaged 22.5 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (ninth-most in the NFL); and 23.8 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (15th in the league).
Jeff Tefertiller has listed Edelman as one of his top Value Plays this weekend:
- Top 200 ranking: 19
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: +8
Few are happier than the veteran slot receiver to have Tom Brady back under center for the Patriots. With New England still stinging from the shutout by Buffalo in Week 4, the game against Cleveland is a great one for the Patriots offense. In particular, Edelman should have a nice game. The Browns struggle against slot receivers and Edelman will be highly targeted with Gronkowski still limited by the hamstring injury.
Wimer and Bryant also note that the Browns allow the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
My Advice: And I would expect Edelman in the slot more often this week because I don't think Gronkowski will be "ready to roll" as a receiver. Keep in mind that prior to Jacoby Brissett's starts, Edelman earned 17 targets, 14 receptions, and 142 yards against the Cardinals and Dolphins with Jimmy Garoppolo. Bennett has performed well regardless of the quarterback targeting him and Brady spent a ton of time working with Bennett in training camp. Start them both.
5. Bench Matthew Stafford against the Eagles?
I'll let our upgrade/downgrade report from Sigmund Bloom and company give you the setup:
Stafford's early season run as a top three quarterback came to a screeching halt in Week 4 against a Bears defense that had been one of the easiest to solve against the pass. Golden Tate caused an interception with a miscommunication and the Lions lack of a running game caught up with them. After looking like a strong QB1 entering Week 4, Stafford should be on your bench for the matchup against the Eagles in Week 5.
It's a definitive statement and a U-Turn on a player off to a great start on the basis of one game against a bad defense and an upcoming matchup with a statistically sound unit. Wimer and Bryant add more detail in support:
Golden Tate (four targets for 1/1/0 receiving) was benched for the second half of the game against Chicago due to running the wrong route and causing a Matthew Stafford interception early in the game on Sunday (23/36 for 213 yards passing, zero TDs and two interceptions thrown, with two sacks taken for -16 yards). Tate is in the doghouse entering Week Five...
Marvin Jones has become the featured wide receiver for the Lions (seven targets for 5/74/0 receiving). Though Eric Ebron missed some time against Chicago due to his ankle and knee woes, he did return to the game and posted five targets for 4/42/0 receiving. Anquan Boldin continues to move the chains for the Lions (eight targets for 6/31/0 receiving).
The Steelers were held to three points during Week Three, and the Eagles limited Ben Roethlisberger and company to a mere 24/44 for 222 net yards, zero TDs, one interception and four sacks taken for -35 yards. After three games, the Eagles were ranked eighth in the NFL in net passing yards allowed per game (203.3), first with zero passing scores given out, tied for third with three interceptions and 10 sacks.
This defense is playing really well in both phases of the game, folks. [Over the past two games] the Eagles have averaged 11.7 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks (second-least in the NFL); and 20.9 fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers (10th-least); with 2.2 fantasy points given up per game to tight ends (second-least). This is a bad matchup for Stafford and company, as they try to get their passing game back on track after a rough outing last weekend.
Looks bad, but Ari Ingel raises some good points worth further exploration about the Lions at home, the Eagles cornerbacks, and why he considers it a neutral matchup as opposed to a bad one:
- Matthew Stafford – This Eagles defense is ferocious and bring tons of pressure and have great safety play. That said, I wouldn’t count him out at home where he always plays better, so more of a Top 15 guy this week.
- Marvin Jones – He’s supposedly banged up and didn’t practice on Wednesday, so watch his status. That said, the Eagles cornerbacks are the teams’ weakness, so he should continue to be a target hog and put up numbers in this offense.
- Anquan Boldin – With Ebron likely out, he could catch another 6 passes out of the slot and dominate the middle of the field against beatable CB Ron Brooks.
- Theo Riddick – Should catch a lot of dump-offs this week since they won’t be able to run the ball against the Eagles, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the league this year. Locked in as his usual PPR flex play, but upside limited.
Let's examine the Eagles defense in context. They've played the Browns, the Bears, and the Steelers. Philadelphia deserves the credit due them for limiting Roethlisberger to 257 yards and an interception, but the rest of the schedule includes Robert Griffin in his first live action in a long time, a struggling Jay Cutler on the outs with his organization and a less-prepared Brian Hoyer in mop-up duty when Cutler went down.
And to be honest, I still have some low-level doubts about Pittsburgh's opposition that makes the Eagles defense having a "statement game" something I'm not sure I've completely bought into.
Look at our team pages and the Eagles' defensive logs and you'll see that Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor earned big plays despite Griffin missing wide open looks (I watched this game) for more. Alshon Jeffery had a 96-yard week and Antonio Brown had 12-140.
What this tells me is that the Eagle corners struggle against route runners or receivers who win the ball in the air. Marvin Jones is both of those players combined. As long as Jones is healthy, I would not downgrade him and I'd expect 100 yards (WR1 production) from him because Stafford will earn enough drop backs where he can take 3 or 5 steps, plant, and throw on time and in rhythm to the precise Jones.
Another encouraging sign is the production of a complementary receiver for these three opponents. One receiver other than the primary earned at least 50 yards each week. Between Ebron, Boldin, and Riddick, I think the Lions can earn 150-170 yards among the three options with a viable short passing game to quell the Eagles' pass rush.
It puts Stafford's production in the range of 250-270 yards with these four receivers and that's about the same as Maurile Tremblay's more data-intensive projections of Stafford (25 of 39 for 267 yards and 1.5 TDs) as his 10th-ranked starter this week. That said, Bloom and David Dodds have Stafford outside their top 15 with 208 yards and 250-ish yards, respectively.
My Advice: If you have the luxury of playing the matchups and benching Stafford for Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, and Derek Carr, I'd consider it. Otherwise, I would not overreact to one bad game from the Lions against a division rival and throw Stafford off your bandwagon.
I still remember Stafford and the Lions at home pasting the Eagles defense for 337 yards and 5 touchdowns on Thanksgiving Day last year. Although that Eagles defense had to deal with the blowback of a Chip Kelly offense that kept it on the field a lot and it was playing a 3-4 that put Brandon Graham out of position at outside linebacker, the base personnel is still similar to last year's version.
Some teams match up better than others and at the risk of drastically overthinking this one, I think the Lions match up better than it appears on paper. If Stafford has been your best starter and you are considering a lesser player with a better matchup, I'd consider sticking with the Lions quarterback despite the advice of many that I respect who see otherwise.