Despite the low odds, most of us love the idea of uncovering that unknown and riding his meteoric ascent to fantasy glory: Dominic Rhodes, Mike Anderson, Patrick Jeffers, Alfred Morris, and even Tim Wright to a lesser extent. Wright wasn't one of the rookie unknowns I mentioned last year, but I did tell you to watch out for Marlon Brown and Kenbrell Thompkins.
With the prohibitive odds of uncovering an unknown gem from the UDFA heap, naming one that was successful and another that had moments of success is pretty good, even if I say so myself.
I'm not sticking to rookies this year, because there are still second and third-year unknowns even to many diehard fantasy owners. Who says sleepers are dead...
The players below are listed in no particular order. Unless I explicitedly say so, do not add these prospects to your re-draft or dynasty roster. When I say "monitor," I mean it in the strictest sense: watch from afar and take notes. If you think it's time to strike, do so at your own risk.
Detroit WR Jeremy Ross
Ross has been my "pet experiment" for my first Rookie Scouting Portfolio Writers Project team. The Lions' receiver was a star running back that the Cal Bears moved to receiver when Ross had to compete with the likes of Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen for a spot on the RB depth chart. Here was my take on Ross when the New England Patriots initially signed Ross as a UDFA:
Jeremy Ross, Cal (6-0, 209) Ross looks (and runs) like the star high school RB that was converted to a WR. He has a thick lower body and he runs with the power and balance of a halfback in the open field. He flashes a good stiff arm against linebackers and safeties and he runs with a nice pad level to get under contact and uses his powerful legs to run through it.
With his strong open field moves when the ball is in his hands that includes an assortment of stutter steps, jukes, spins, and lateral cuts to get an angle on defenders, I wonder if he shouldn’t be switched back to running back at the NFL level. The fact he didn’t beat out Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen (if given a chance) isn’t necessarily a reflection that he can’t play the position.
If he remains a receiver, Ross has the raw skills to excel. His acceleration is noticeably good and he has the explosiveness to get airborne and highpoint the football. He makes quick turns out of his breaks and he can adjust to the ball high or low.
Ross demonstrates the ability to work back to the quarterback and he understands zone coverage well enough to find openings. His routes against single coverage need more work. He tends to tip off the direction of his breaks and at this point he doesn't set up or make breaks with the precision of a pro receiver .
Ross catches the football with his hands, but he has a tendency to juggle the ball. This becomes more pronounced when he has to catch the ball with his back to the quarterback and in tighter coverage.
Although a dangerous open field runner, Ross tends to rely too much on the hurdle move, which could get him to trouble. He has enough confidence to use this move in areas where there are too many defenders around to get a shot on him before he lands.
Although very athletic, he doesn't have the size advantage over most NFL cornerbacks that make other receivers potential assets on the outside. Yet, Ross’ 39-inch vertical leap does compensate for his average height. If he fulfills his potential, he could be a sturdier Steve Smith or Santana Moss.
Ross is second all-time to DeSean Jackson in punt return average at Cal and he has earned five strength and conditioning records. The receiver/runner is an impressive athlete and an intriguing offensive project with a ton of upside. When I see him run, read that he can squat 500 pounds, leap 39 inches, and run a 4.39-40, I see Ross as a halfback. Regardless, he’s a player to remember even if his best chance is initially earn a spot is on special teams.
Ross surfaced on the collective NFL fan's radar in Green Bay when he flashed his skills as a return specialist and reserve slot man when Randall Cobb got hurt. However, his stock submerged just as fast when he had some costly fumbles down the stretch.
The Lions acquired Ross last year and this week, the Detroit media reported that Ross has a strong chance to earn the slot receiver role in the starting rotation. One way to think about Ross' journeyman career is this: the Patriots have a mediocre to bad track record with young wide receivers and the Green Bay Packers have a fine eye for this type of talent. It's no surprise to me New England let Ross go too early and the Packers had the luxury not to tolerate mistakes.
But Ross made some plays in Detroit that make him worth monitoring. He might have had a less than inspiring start to his NFL career, but the playmaking ability continues to shine at various moments.
Remember, Wes Welker played for San Diego and Miami before joining the Patriots and Danny Amendola was with the Cowboys, Eagles, and Rams. Many good slot receivers don't arrive in the NFL as proven commodities; they earn it the hard way (Lance Moore and Andrew Hawkins are two others).
The one concern I have for Ross is that his hands have been shaky in the NFL compared to his years at Cal. He still catches the ball with his hands like he did at the college level, but has bobbled more than a few targets. It could be the jitters of limited opportunities, but Ross has to grow past this fast.
Ross is worth monitoring in dynasty leagues and possibly worth adding in deep leagues if yet another Ryan Broyles comeback falters. Re-draft owners should keep an eye on him just to know if he's worth a waiver wire selection during the season if Calvin Johnson and/or Golden Tate get hurt.
Kansas City WR Albert Wilson
Wilson is the RSP pre-draft publication's No.29 rookie receiver, rated above the likes of Devin Street, L'Damian Washington, Brandon Coleman, Josh Huff, Dri Archer, De'Anthony Thomas, and Ryan Grant. The ranking might not seem great, but in a deep class of talented rookies it's a pretty good place for a likely UDFA from an infant program like Georgia State.
Wilson was indeed a UDFA in May, but a popular one as draft day ended. Wilson says he received calls from most NFL teams, but Andy Reid's recruitment conversation was the most appealing. With OTAs in the books, Reid praised Wilson for his speed and strength despite his somewhat diminutive 5-9, 202-pound stature.
Here's how I described Wilson's game in the 2014 RSP:
Wilson is a player that I hope earns a tryout and an extended look in training camp. He has the speed to beat defenders down field and he shields defenders on vertical routes with good attention to the boundary.
A the same time, he has to get his hands to the ball early enough to keep it off his body. He drops easy passes on short routes where he 's looking down field to run before securing the ball.
Wilson makes plays with contact coming and tracks the ball when running away from the line of scrimmage. He has some shiftiness to set up double moves and he can sell them with his upper body.
He's a patient return specialist. he follows his blocks and displays a downhill mentality even when changing direction.
He can sell the comeback wtih a good drive off the line of scrimmage, but Wilson has to prove he can execute hard breaks and defeat press coverage.
He has decent, but not great NFL speed, yet he plays bigger than his size. If he can earn a role as a return specialist or reserve receiver, he has potential to grow into a a contributor in the passing game.
Kansas City lacks any proven talent at receiver beyond Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery -- and Avery has only proven that he's not a strong bet as anything more than a supporting player in an offense. Wilson's knack for winning the ball in tight coverage and his skill as a ball carrier in the open field could turn into a nice surprise for the Chiefs offense. Just remember, Alex Smith does not whip the ball around the field with the production of a quality fantasy quarterback. Now if Tyler Bray manages to with the backup role and makes strides, he has the gunsligner mentality and the arm to elevate the fantasy production of this offense--even if the downside is reckless decision-making.
If Smith stays healthy and Wilson earns the slot role, the rookie could earn 400-600 yards and 3-4 touchdowns--enough to make him a bye-week option in some leagues.
Kansas City Tight End Demetrius Harris
Travis Kelce was one of my favorite skill players in the 2013 draft, but his knee injury and recovery from microfracture surgery are legitimate concerns. Enter the 6'7, 257-pound Demetrius Harris a second-year free agent from University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee with a basketball background and an ascending skill set as a tight end-convert.
Harris has made good plays in camp, demonstrating his range, hand-eye coordination, and concentration as a receiver in the middle of the field. With Kelce hurt, Anthony Fasano older (but still unspectacularly steady), and Sean McGrath nothing special as a receiver, Harris has flashed the athleticism to make a quick rise up the depth chart and earn some opportunities as a package player.
Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Marcus Pollard, and Tony Gonzalez are all examples of basketball players-turned gridiron stars. The fact that Harris arrived as a 225-pound prospect and worked his tail off in the weight room is an excellent sign.
There's still hope for Kelce to be ready this year, but it's a fluid situation. Watch for Harris' name and game this summer and determine if he should be on your waiver wire short list or end-of-draft flier radar. He's worth adding to a deep dynasty league with PPR premium scoring and cutting him or stashing him to a taxi squad if he doesn't emerge this year.
Indianapolis Tight end Erik Swoope
Sigmund Bloom credits me all the time for my admiration for Colts tight end Dwayne Allen's game. I have to return the favor with reserve tight end Swoope, who coach Chuck Pagano says is light years ahead of where they expected him as a UDFA this year.
Swoope has a few things in common with Jimmy Graham: He's a freakish athlete with size, explosiveness, and fluidity; Swoope was also a basketball player at the Unversity of Miami; and he has demonstrated a lot of comfort with contact.
The big question beyond "can he improve fast enough to have an impact in the offense within the next year or two?" is "Whose job does he take? Coby Fleener's or Dwayne Allen's?"
My bet is Fleener, becuase I doubt Swoope can develop into a blocker near Allen's level of play. Monitor Swoope's development throughout camp when the pads come on. In a deep dynasty league with premium PPR scoring, I'd take a flier on Swoope like I would with Harris.
PIttsburgh Wide Receiver Justin Brown
I was somewhat underwhelmed by Justin Brown in 2012-2013. The former Oklahoma Sooner by way of Penn State looked like a decent player with reserve upside:
Brown often plays like a big receiver who does a good job of makign plays in tight coverage by using his body to earn position or he'll work with his quarterback in the underneath zone to get open. He catches the ball after contact on several plays and he has some build-up speed to get into the deep-intermediate seam or along the sideline on play-action passes.
He gets good depth on his routes and breaks past the first down marker. He also can shield the ball from the defender with his body after breaks. he find the open zone and he is willing to lay out and adjust to teh ball in any direction away from his frame.
Brown demonstrates good strength as a runner and he can be physical with defensive backs. Willing to use his hands as a blocker, Brown demonstrates good technique as a cut blocker.
Brown has the potential to develop into a possession receivers. What concerns me is that Brown currently looks like a slower Michael Jenkins. For an NFL team there is nothing wrong with acquiring a player with Jenkins' skill as depth. Like Jenkins, Brown can make plays in tight quarters and be where the offense dictates at the right time.
However, like Jenkins, Brown lacks that extra notch of physical skill. He also has to develop more polish to even approach Jenkins' game at this point.
Brown is inconsistent at catching the ball in tight coverage or after contact. I like that Brown catches the ball with his hands, but he tends to make these receptions with the ball tight to his torso rather than his arms extended. This behavior heightens the likelihood of the ball rebounding off his body and making control of the ball more difficult.
He lacks deep speed and is only effective on vertical routes of play action or in a mismatch with a slower safety or linebacker cheating to defend the run. Brown is a straight-linish player and detracts from his skill as a runner, blocker, and vertical player.
He might thrive as a possession receiver if he gets more consistent with his routes and hands, but he'll also have to get quicker, faster, and more agile so he's not constantly looking over his shoulder for a spot on the depth chart.
According to the Steelers' beat writers, Brown has improved enough in the offseason that he has earned reps with the starters in OTAs. Steelers' wide receiver coach Richard Mann says Brown "looks like a different player."
What fantasy owners need to see in training camp is if the difference is physical as well as mental. If Brown has improved his speed in addition to running better routes, he could surprise. However, the pivotal part of his game will be making catches in tight, physical coverage.
If Brown is more consistent in 2014 than he was as a collegian, the Michael Jenkins comparisons might be worth making. Jenkins was never better than a top-40 fantasy receiver during his nine-year career, but it's worth monitoring how different of a player Brown has become.
New England RB Roy Finch
Shane Vereen was supposed to be the Aaron Hernandez-hybrid player in this Patriots offense who could dictate mismatches at the line of scrimmage dependig on where Tom Brady positioned Vereen in the formation. When Vereen hurt his wrist, the Patriots no longer had this advantage. When the running back returned to the field, he had to wear protective gear that inhibited his known skill for making plays on vertical routes in tight coverage.
If Vereen can finally stay healthy, UDFA Roy Finch will not be much of an offensive factor this year. However, I believe Finch still has a good chance of making the team because of his skill as a return specialist and Vereen playing out the final year of his contract.
While Vereen and Danny Woodhead before him are larger players than the 5-7, 170-pound Finch, plug the 5-7, 180-pound Darren Sproles into the Patriots offense and it would be a success. Sproles entered the league at 168 pounds and gradually added weight. I expect Finch to do the same.
Like Sproles, Finch is a good receiver and an aggressive inside runner with fine balance. He won't give a team more than 5-7 touches per game as a runner, but he has the potential to develop into a contributor capable of a combined 10-12 touches per game.
What I value from Finch as a prospect is his quickness. I believe his stop-start moves, head fakes, and hip flexibility will make him an asset in the open field. Many of the runs that you'll see from his highlight film don't go the distance, but the number of cut backs across the field that Finch makes and is still in position to threaten taking the carry all the way is a testament to his speed.
Dynasty owners in deep PPR leagues who can afford a taxi squad stash might consider Finch this year. If you can't, it's still worth monitoring his camp and determining if the Patriots keep him around for more to come in 2015.
Patriots RB Stephen Houston
If Finch replaces Shane Vereen in 2015 and Stevan Ridley is also looking for work elsewhere then New England will either be looking for a new starter or looking to UDFA Stephen Houston as an option. A big, swift back with good hands, the product of Indiana is an intriguing player.
I would have ranked Houston among my top 15 rookie runners before the draft and I still have him No.15 at this position after he landed in New England. If you remember Antowain Smith, there's some similarities between the two when it comes to build, power, and pass-catching skill. Smith was never a focal point in the passing game at the University of Houston or with the Bills and Patriots but he averaged between 1-2 receptions per game during his three most productive seasons as a pro.
Houston has 65 career receptions in 36 starts at Indiana. The Patriots have demonstrated a decent eye and an open mind for using late round picks, UDFAs, and castoffs like Patrick Pass, Woodhead, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brandon Bolden, and LeGarrette Blount.
Keep an eye on Houston's training camp. If he sticks, he's worth a spot on your taxi squad in dynasty leagues and a guy to monitor for your re-draft waiver wires.
Minnesota Vikings RB Zach Line
The only player of worthwhile contributor talent for the long-term on the Vikings depth chart behind Adrian Peterson who is considered a running back is Jerick McKinnon. I've written about McKinnon's potential at the RSP blog.
The catch witht he first statement is that the Vikings consider Zach Line a fullback-running back tweener along the lines of Jason Snelling. I liked Line enough that SMU to keep an eye on his whereabouts and it's not surprising that a beat writer speculates that Line could be more involved as Toby Gerhart's replacement.
If Line shows he can pass protect and make timely receptions, don't be surrpised if he earns that Snelling-like role in Minnesota. Hopefully, the Vikings won't need his services, but if Peterson gets hurt McKinnon might not be ready as an every-down option and the rest of the depth chart is uninspiring.
Jacksonville WR Allen Hurns
Hurns is one of those players that flashed the kind of toughness you want to see from an NFL receiver, but there were enough inconsistencies with his performances that he didn't earn a pick in the draft. Could some of this have to do with the fact that his quarterback was Stephen Morris -- a disappointing prospect with an NFL arm and athleticism, but lacking the consistency in his game to make sound decisions?
If there's a position that can see its stock rise or fall due to its teammates, receiver has to be near the top of the list. This week, long-time NFL receiver guru Jerry Sullivan mentioned Hurns as an instinctive player that can help the Jaguars after a good showing in minicamp and OTAs.
Don't count on Hurns as a dynasty investment, but we have seen rookie wide receivers miss time to injuries based on the length of the season and the intensity of conditioning that they have to adjust to in the NFL. There's a reason why receivers that attend Larry Fitzgerald's camp leave with their eyes wide open and testifying to the difference in conditining between a pro-ready starter and a college-ready starter.
If Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee aren't quite ready for prime time, Hurns could step in as a contributor.
Atlanta WR Geraldo Boldewijn
Look around the Falcons' depth chart. Roddy White is a year or two away from his career twilight (at best). Harry Douglas had his career-best season as the option that defenses didn't mind allowing Matt Ryan to target in his depleted 2013 offense. Douglas is a slot receiver with upside if the scheme works with him, but that upside isn't on the Welker-Edelman track.
Drew Davis is an athletic player with skill after the catch, but not much of a route runner. He's also 4-5 weeks away from seeing the field after surgery on his foot that earned him a spot on the PUP list.
Darius Johnson has great hands, but he's short and slow compared to NFL starters. Maybe Johnson will one day replace Douglas in the slot or he'll man the slot if Douglas is forced to sub for White or Julio Jones due to an injury. Johnson is not future starter material.
Devin Hester is in Atlanta to return kicks and he's one of the two best (Joshua Cribbs) that we've seen in 15 years at this role -- maybe the best of all time. But as a receiver? Unless he demonstrates late-career improvement on the level of Ted Ginn Jr, don't count on him.
Courtney Roby also makes a living as a speical teams ace and Kevin Cone is returning from injury. It leaves Boldewijn and fellow rookie Bernard Reedy.
In contrast to Reedy--a short, smaller receiver with some skill as a hybrid runner--Boldewijn is a 6-3, 220-pound physical specimen who has flashed some skills as a route runner and pass catcher that were more consistent than the big plays and big lapses that I saw from Reedy. In fact, I think Boldewijn could become a bargain for Atlanta if he can transition fast enough to stick with the Falcons' roster as a rookie.
You didn't hear much about Boldewijn because he incurred multiple short-term suspensions at Boise State because he and his host family (he was an exchange student from the Netherlands) violated the NCAA's regulations for issues that could easily be mishandled despite good intentions.
What I liked most about Boldewijn on tape was his familiarity and execution of releases against press coverage, his skill to bend his hips at the top of his breaks despite his 220-pound frame, and his willingness to attack the ball with his hands away from his body. I expect Boldewijn to earn a spot on the depth chart and become a 2-3 year project with Roddy White as a mentor.
If Boldewijn flashes good work this summer, take the last statement a little more seriously and consider him a dynasty practice squad stash. Otherwise, don't get hung up on him as an acquisition.
Other Considerations
Some of these players are better-known, but might be overlooked after a year where they failed to do much as rookies:
- C.J. Anderson - The Broncos' back reminds me of a more agile Rudi Johnson and I wrote about it last year. Down from 222 (or really 235 at OTAs this year) to 213 pounds, Anderson should be quicker, but still have the balance to help Denver if Montee Ball falters. He's worth a stash because he is considered the favorite to back up Ball.
- Kenbrell Thompkins - As I've mentioned in the past, Thompkins often looked better on the field than Aaron Dobson. There were too many dropped passes and route errors from Thompkins last year, but he has posted another successful spring camp where he looked like the best receiver on the field yet again. It's an encouraging sign and it makes him a must-monitor for fantasy owners with late-August drafts.
- Ryan Griffin...no, that Ryan Griffin - Garrett Graham is a fine tight end, but Griffin has some big-play ability that he flashed as a rookie for the Texas last year. He's worth watching in August, because if he takes that big step between his rookie and second year, he could overtake Graham. But I wasn't referring to him. The Griffin I'm talking about is the Saints' No.3 QB. If he can overtake Luke McCown as the backup, take it as dynasty notice that he might one day earn a shot to replace Drew Brees. The Tulane product looked good enough last preseason to watch him this year to see if it happens.
- Spencer Ware - I was told by former scout and NFL employee after the 2014 NFL Draft that the Seahawks still have plans for Ware. It's difficult for me to see, but it might be an indication that the team likes him enough to keep him around. If it doesn't, don't be surprised if Ware takes the Joique Bell route. The big question will be if a team considers him after the DUI incident in the offseason. Ware would be a great fit as the player the Bengals hope Jeremy Hill will be for them.
- James Wilder, Jr. - Speaking of Cincinnati, Wilder is a fine (but seldom-used) receiver and a powerful runner. He's a reckless player with a lot of minor injuries on his dossier, which might explain his drop from the draft. If Jeremy Hill gets hurt or hasn't learned from his off-field mistakes, Wilder could earn an opportunity to stick. Otherwise, keep an eye on where he travels next, if he's healthy enough to compete.
- A.C. Leonard - The Vikings are set with Kyle Rudolph, but Leonard has the athleticism to stretch the field and earn yards after the catch. If he can make the roster, he's worth a stash.
Next week, non-PPR tiers.
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