1. Philadelphia's RB by conundrum
Sunday's broadcast crew asked Doug Pederson about its running back depth chart before the game. According to the commentators, the Eagles head coach sounded as if he was earnestly musing aloud.
Pederson began his answer with how good Darren Sproles has been for the past three weeks. He continued with an emphatic affirmation about Ryan Mathews' talent and that he needed more carries because of his physicality and speed. Then he interrupted that line of thought with But how do you put Sproles on the bench with how he's playing? We don't want to wear him down, but he's one of the few players that never taps out.
The sensible thing to do was to read the actions on the field before entertaining the potential red herrings from head coaches. After the first half, it appeared to be a no-brainer; Ryan Mathews is back. The Eagles line dominated the Falcons on downhill runs all day and despite success from Sproles and Wendell Smallwood, Mathews was the clear beneficiary during the first half-hour.
The first half looked like Atlanta's run defense was a college all-star team post-training camp.
Mathews even earned targets in the passing game against this youthful and disoriented group of linebackers.
My conclusion changed during the third quarter and I couldn't help but think about Pederson's response throughout the rest of the game.
Although Philadelphia overmatched Atlanta, I thought about Pederson's response throughout Sunday's game. Sproles might be too good to limit. He's the most consistent option.
Although Mathews is the best talent among the conventional backs on the roster, Sproles is the best running back regardless of fit. The problem is that fit matters in the NFL. So do assumptions that Sproles won't last the rest of the season as the primary back.
So were assumptions that Sproles would only have a short career as a return specialist. If I had Mathews on my fantasy team, I'd be pleased with the performance but worried about the long-term outcome for this year.
If you can sell Mathews as an RB2-RB3, I'd do so. If you can't, Mathews could have value against Cincinnati, Washington, and Green Bay. I'd lean towards Sproles for the others if there are no strong affirmations from the coaching staff about the state of the depth chart.
2. state of the saints offense
Cowboys and Steelers fans may argue that the ending of the Dallas-Pittsburgh game had the biggest emotional swing. It's up there, but I'm not feeding into their self-aggrandizing tendencies.
The two-play swing at the end of the Broncos-Saints game had it beat. Even if Ben Roethlisberger evoked the memory of Dan Marino fooling the Jets, the consecutive plays at the Super Dome were far more difficult to execute and created the most drama.
There was far more to this game than its ending. Drew Brees routinely avoided Broncos' pressure and found the mark for plays big and small. For fantasy owners, it was a boom-bust afternoon. Brees targeted eight receivers and seven of them at least twice.
The game plan was less about getting the ball specifically to certain receivers, but to generate winning matchups with safety T.J. Ward, Von Miller, and the Broncos' inside linebackers.
Snead, Cooks, Fleener, Cadet, and Hightower all benefited from this concept. At one point, Brees got cocky and didn't look off the single safety, leading to an interception.
Matt Harmon champions Snead as an underrated player. I agree, but I wouldn't let that statement sway you too far in his favor. He's a fine player for the Saints offense because he understands coverage and he executes Sean Payton's machinations consistently. He's excellent at working free against rub routes (legal picks).
The potential flaw of the New Orleans' receiving corps is that it has two players that are almost primary receivers, but "almost" doesn't always cut it. Michael Thomas had his worst game as a pro, fumbling the ball three times on routes over the middle. I wouldn't be concerned about his performance.
Brandin Cooks is the "almost, but not quite" option of chief concern. When considering the potential of a prospect as a future primary option, I look for a receiver that can make catches against tight, physical coverage.
Can he take a hit? Can he track the ball while a defender jostles him? Can he maintain a line or create position when a cornerback wins the initial angle?
Cooks had inconsistent production in these scenarios. It wasn't a specific route, the location of the incoming collision, or if the angle of the target wasn't an optimal one. On some plays, he'd make a spectacular grab; on others, he'd drop the ball or mistrack it.
It continues as a Saint. Despite making the catch this weekend, this is a target I've seen him drop several times.
Here's a play where Cooks takes a hard hit and hangs onto the ball.
Where he struggles consistently is winning at the line of scrimmage against good press technique.
Although Cooks has the best upside in a given week, and he has a slight yardage and touchdown to Michael Thomas, I still prefer the rookie for the rest of the year and long-term. I'd rather trade Cooks to earn consistent WR2-types than have him as a borderline WR1. He has three games with at least 95 yards and six below 70 yards. and the expectations for him tend to be higher than how he delivers.
3. chiefs defense
Matt Bitonti called it last week: Fade the 32nd-ranked Carolina offensive line versus the top-ranked Kansas City front seven. Obvious call, but it doesn't detract from the young talent on his unit that doesn't include Justin Houston.
The most exciting emergence that we've seen due in part to Houston's absence has been former Auburn edge rusher, Dee Ford. Once known as a one-move wonder with great speed around the corner, Ford is developing into a multi-dimensional edge player.
Rookie defensive end Chris Jones is another exciting option. He may never become a top IDP option in many leagues (and I'm not sold this is a true statement), but he'll make the fantasy options in Kansas City better.
It's not just the front end of the defense. Eric Berry and Marcus Peters are big-play options. The S-CB duo changed this game during the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
Although Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are aging, I'm excited about what I'm seeing from this defense. I like the schedule down the stretch because Matt Ryan is mistake-prone against pressure, Derek Carr is a gunslinger, Marcus Mariota makes errors when the script is thrown out, and Denver's offensive line is weak.
4. Buried alive: Antonio Gates
I've had a tough time believing that Gates was done this year. Unfortunately, a pair of muscle strains exacerbated the fact that Gates has lost a step and Hunter Henry produced early on. There was a tendency to overlook Gates' mental acumen for the game.
Now that he's healthy, and other options aren't, we're seeing Philip Rivers target Gates with regularity.
If you argue that injuries are the only reason Gates has seen an uptick in targets, I'll counter that injury was the only reason he saw a downtick at the beginning of the year. If he's so "done". how come he's producing?
It's overlooking the quality of NFL play if you maintain the argument that Gates is done. He's past his prime, yes, but he's still capable of production. Don't take my word for it; look at the clips.
5. Stefon Landry...or, is it Jarvis Diggs? I don't care, I like it
I may not like the Vikings offense as a whole, but I like what it's doing for Stefon Diggs. As I discussed last week, the Vikings are executing a short passing game and using Diggs more often from the slot. It's leading to a higher target-count and lower yards-per-catch average.
The net gain is box score offerings that look more like Jarvis Landry than Antonio Brown. His fantasy owners have no room for complaint. It's like free money.
In fact, the Vikings are still finding ways to target Diggs downfield.
I expect borderline WR1 fantasy production if this continues—and I believe it will.
6. Buried alive part ii: Vernon Davis
One of the exciting developments with the Washington offense since its trip to London has been the use of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis. Sure, Davis had strong moments while Reed missed multiple games, but most expected Washington to deposit the veteran on the bench as soon as Reed looked healthy.
Whether Desean Jackson or Matt Jones' injuries were a partial factor, I'm excited that Davis has a consistent role. Kirk Cousins still makes foolish decisions rooted in the fantastical notion that physically speaking, he's a laser-armed gunslinger.
In addition to routine reminders to Cousins that he's not Matt Stafford, the offense has adopted a heavy play-action component that gives Cousins time to throw the ball downfield. With the amount of time that Washington's offense has earned, Cousins can pretend he's John Elway even if he's not remotely Ken Stabler.
Washington's two-tight end looks give Cousins greater flexibility with run-pass. Both tight ends also have the vertical element to earn mismatches against a wide variety of defenders. And the play action game opens the field for both players to earn yards after the catch.
If your streamer options are slim at tight end, Davis is worth holding onto.
7. CHECKING IN WITH THE PATRIOTS' MAN-ZONE THEORY
Several weeks ago, I shared my fantasy theory on the Patriots' offense and after it panned out, I revisited last week.
Beyond the obvious plays of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, one of the most compounding plays has been the supporting cast of the Patriots' offense. Laid out below is the working theory. I thought it would be trashed sooner than it has, but so far it has been accurate.
Opponents That Play A Lot of Man
- Buffalo (Week 8): Technically, the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone but its style of zone converts to man against "inside" routes often run by tight ends. It also plays its share of press coverage.
- San Francisco (Week 11): The 49ers like to play press coverage.
- New York Jets (Weeks 12 & 16): Darrelle Revis...
- Baltimore (Week 14): A lot of man on the outside.
- Denver (Week 15)
Opponents That Play A Lot of Zone
- Pittsburgh (Week 7): Although some of these options have higher upside based on the defensive scheme, I wouldn't downgrade Bennett, Hogan, or Blount when they're not facing those units.
- Seattle (Week 10): Although Seattle is known for Richard Sherman coverage skills, the Seahawks are essentially a zone defense.
- L.A. (Week 13): Gregg Williams will use his share of press man to blitz defenses but he also likes to place his safeties in disguised zones.
Optimal Pats vs. Man:
- Martellus Bennett: The Browns played a lot of man coverage and Bennett's size poses difficulties for linebackers and safeties at the catch-point and after the catch. The two tight end alignments and play-action also give Bennett big-play opportunities because the opposing corner, safety, or linebacker has to honor the run.
- Chris Hogan: Not as fast as Edelman, Hogan is a better receiver at the catch-point on downfield targets. He's a physical receiver and tracks the ball better against tight coverage. Because he's slower than Edelman, he's often the target on play-action deep routes involving those heavy run sets with two tight ends.
- LeGarrette Blount: Defenses are more likely to honor the run in two tight end sets with him in the backfield in comparison to James White. Blount is also a decent screen receiver and an excellent draw runner. He'll have some big runs when Brady and company break the huddle in heavy sets with tight ends to the same side but then shift pre-snap to a shotgun look with both tight ends split from the formation as receivers on each side.
Optimal Pats vs. Zone:
- Julian Edelman: Mostly a slot receiver, Edelman performs better when a cover corner isn't assigned to him. When Brady can run play-action and find Edelman behind the linebackers on deep crossers or in-cuts that let him work across the field with a running start, he's in for big days. Cincinnati rushed four and dropped seven with regularity this weekend and it was Edelman who earned a team-high 7 targets among the wide receivers.
- James White: White had some moments against the Browns two weeks ago, but he was at his best against the zone-oriented Bengals. He earned nine targets and caught eight of them for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brady often targeted White under the linebackers in the right flat for nice gains, including one of White's touchdowns. He's just quick enough to do damage. If Dion Lewis returns to form, substitute his name here.
- Danny Amendola: Amendola is a terrific zone option when healthy. If you need a bye-week desperation flier, you can do worse than Amendola when the Patriots face zone-heavy defensive units.
Week 10's Results versus Seattle: It was one of the rare weeks where one of the "man" players out-produced a "zone" player at the same position and it was the same player as Week 8: Martellus Bennett. Still, there's a good explanation. Bennett has been dealing with a high-ankle sprain and he was still recovering two weeks ago.
This week, Bennett earned more targets after the duo of Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas knocked Rob Gronkowski temporarily from the game.
For a series or two after that, Bennett earned fade routes split wide against DeShawn Shead and he was the target of a play-action crossing route against the grain of the play fake that Gronkowski usually runs when on the field.
- LeGarrette Blount's efficiency remains below average, but on a play-by-play basis, he looks agile, powerful, and capable of generating explosive plays week-to-week. His usage in the red area and the talent of the Patriots' offense makes him one of the most predictable fantasy options reliant more on touchdowns than yardage.
- Gronkowski's 3-56 had multiple close calls that could have elevated his total. He and Blount are the two options fantasy owners should continue starting regardless of scheme.
- Julian Edelman's 7-99 stat line fits the rubric.
- Although Danny Amendola and James White lacked strong production, they out-did Chris Hogan, the "man" option who was non-existent.
In Week 11, the New England faces Seattle and this should be a zone game that benefits Edelman, Amendola, and White. San Francisco likes to play man coverage, which makes it a strong game for a healthy Bennett and ups the chances for Hogan to have more production than the Edelman, Amendola, White trio.
8. Emerging fantasy options
The players below caught my eye this weekend because of their performance, the quality of their use, and the offensive scheme.
Tyreek Hill: Jeremy Maclin's absence is the primary reason Hill led Chiefs receivers this weekend, but it's not the entire story. I've written about Hill's potential ascent earlier in the year. It's becoming clear that Andy Reid can't keep him off the field.
During his initial appearances in the offense, the Chiefs have done a good job of targeting Hill deep. Opponents are responding with extra caution and it's leading to easy targets with YAC opportunities.
Now that the Chiefs have put opponents on notice about Hill's vertical prowess, Alex Smith has to become more decisive with the deep ball. This is different than the idea that Smith has to throw the deep ball. Many fans believe he's reluctant to do so.
But for the past six weeks, there has been an increase of deep targets and it began with Smith, not Foles. The problem I see with Smith is the trust factor. He's a slow-trusting quarterback and makes him wait too long to deliver the ball in the vertical game. This interception is a great example.
I liked what I've seen from Hill in recent weeks. He has to develop into a better timing-route runner to become a primary receiver, but he makes acrobatic adjustments on the football and Kansas City is pleased with how quick he has absorbed additional responsibilities. Right now, I'd compare him to Jacoby Ford when Ford was playing well for the Raiders.
If Hill can develop into a great route runner, the zenith of his potential could be in the same area code as Steve Smith. I don't think there will ever be a player in Smith's zip code.
Eli Rodgers: His touchdown catch was a well-run pivot route and he had to reach behind his break path to dig the ball off the ground. He also earned a second target in the red area that came in too hot for his hands to snare on the crossing route. Later in the half, Rodgers made a fine effort on a play up the seam but he lost the ball as he went to the ground. Rodgers forced the Cowboys to commit a holding call on the play, leading to a first down.
Based on the situations that Ben Roethlisberger is targeting Rodgers, I'm a believer that he'll be the smarter option with more fantasy production than those clamoring for Ladarius Green.
Damien Williams: I saw Williams as a capable sleeper in the 2014 NFL Draft. Here's what I wrote for Football Outsiders back then.
Williams’ listed weight prior to his senior year was 208 pounds, but he ran his fast forty at 222 pounds. The 5-11 running back has always demonstrated good straight-line speed. Give him a good crease and and Williams can make a defensive back or linebacker pay if they approach with a bad angle.
The former Sooner is a one-cut runner with patience and skill to find the cutback lane in a zone-blocking system. Technically sound, Williams demonstrates good pad level and second effort with his legs after contact. He even displays a nice-looking straight-arm.
The technique is all there, but the strength is lacking. On film, the pad level, leg drive, and stiff arm all lack the explosion and strength to make a difference. Even his blocking lacks a sound punch despite approaching opponents with a good angle.
My take on Williams entering the 2013 season was that if he could improve his strength, he could become a dangerous runner between the tackles. On paper, Williams has all the tools to become a premiere prospect.
Williams added the weight and still has the speed. Knowing these two things, it would seem logical that he’s now a premiere prospect.
I’m not convinced. Andre Williams is big, strong, and ran a good enough forty that his Speed Score ranks him a notch below these top four, but his film is underwhelming. Boston College’s Williams does not break a lot of tackles unless he earns a huge hole and has a sizable, unfettered start downhill.
Damien Williams had bigger holes to run through on a regular basis at Oklahoma than Andre Williams had at Boston College. Even if he didn’t depress his draft stock by getting kicked off the team in late November, I need to see that Williams’ size is translating to power.
If it is, Williams is the best back of the quartet and capable of earning this sleeper moniker. If it doesn’t, Williams has the skills to earn a roster spot and contribute because of his speed, acceleration, agility, skill as a receiver, and potential as a blocker.
The reason for Williams’ dismissal and how the running back approaches football and life moving forward will be the biggest deciding factor of him even earning a chance to prove his worth on a field
Despite his draft status, Williams has hung around Miami. He has played well enough during brief in-game appearances that he has climbed the depth chart. I like his ball security and determined style.
This weekend, he earned a touchdown as the fullback at the goal line ahead of Jay Ajayi and followed it up with this gorgeous play.
Because the Dolphins offensive line is performing well and Williams has matured on the field, he's a strong candidate as a handcuff down the stretch.
9. Catch of the day: "Up the Rivers" Ceviche
Football is hard. There's no sequence of events during this week's game that illustrates this fact more than Philip Rivers' 4th quarter against the Dolphins.
The veteran threw three touchdowns during the initial three quarters of this game, finding Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, and Tyrell Williams in this seesaw affair. It was a fantastic start, although there were mental mistakes.
But as you'd expect, those errors were from his teammates. Williams failed to run the correct route twice in this game and it cost the offense. Both plays were supposed to be fall-outs (back shoulder fades), but Williams continued up the field as the ball sailed behind him.
Here's a target—the play before his touchdown reception—where you can see head coach Mike McCoy throw up his hands in exasperation.
Don't tell me that the Chargers have been better off without Keenan Allen. While it forced San Diego to give Williams more game reps, these aren't the kind of mistakes you'd expect from Allen at this point in his career.
These were minor issues compared to Rivers' fourth-quarter difficulties. Three of Rivers' four interceptions were errors of reading the deeper defender over top of the targeted route.
All three defenders had the luxury of reading Rivers' eyes and breaking on the football.
Although it was a rough day for Rivers, he remains one of the most reliable fantasy options available.
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.