Stop me if you've heard this before. An undersized running back electrifies the league in part-time use which ignites a flurry of enthusiasm for that running back's prospects the following year IF ONLY he gets a heavier workload. Sometimes it works out beautifully. Other times betting on a breakout ends in heartbreak as the player either doesn't get the increased opportunity or, by virtue of his size, can't handle the heavier role. Andre Ellington is this year's example, and expectations vary widely for the 2nd year runner.
- Among Footballguys' staff members, Ellington currently ranks between 13th and 25th
- He's currently coming off the board 14th among RBs and 29th overall (a 3rd round pick in 12 team leagues)
- He finished as the 25th ranked fantasy RB in 2013 -- Ellington ran for 652 yards (5.5 yards per rush) and caught 37 receptions for 371 yards. He also scored four times.
- Ellington isn't a big back -- Ellington is listed at 5'9", 199 lbs. but appears to weigh less.
- Head coach Bruce Arians didn't think Ellington could handle a major workload last year -- Arians was comfortable with larger backs in his prior stints, and brought in Rashard Mendenhall to compete for the main role.
- The Cardinals offensive line struggled at times in 2013
Ellington was highly productive in spite of limited touches last season
| Rank | First | Last | FPTs | Touch | FPTs/Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren | Sproles | 177.6 | 124 | 1.43 |
| 2 | Danny | Woodhead | 225.3 | 180 | 1.25 |
| 3 | Donald | Brown | 150.1 | 129 | 1.16 |
| 4 | Jamaal | Charles | 382.1 | 329 | 1.16 |
| 5 | Andre | Ellington | 165.3 | 156 | 1.06 |
| 6 | Joique | Bell | 220.8 | 219 | 1.01 |
| 7 | Giovani | Bernard | 224.9 | 226 | 1.00 |
| 8 | Knowshon | Moreno | 296.7 | 302 | 0.98 |
| 9 | Mike | Tolbert | 123.6 | 127 | 0.97 |
| 10 | DeMarco | Murray | 260.2 | 270 | 0.96 |
I don't want to overstate the value of this particular metric. Fantasy points per touch is a way of showing that a player made the most of their snaps. However, the leaderboard of these kinds of lists is often populated with role players. For example, Sproles sits atop the list because he's used almost exclusively as a receiver. We know at this point that Sproles won't be used in a full-time workload. Similarly the likes of Mike Tolbert are on the list because they were used periodically as goal-line specialists. Again, Tolbert's FPT/Touch would plummet if he were given lots of carries between the 20s. What we as fantasy analysts need to determine is if a player can sustain a high level of productivity as their role increases.
Ellington was effective against base defenses, a key to being successful in an expanded role
Yards per Rush on 1st Down (2013, minimum: 50 rushes)
| Rank | First | Last | Rush | Yards | YPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre | Ellington | 51 | 324 | 6.4 |
| 2 | LeGarrette | Blount | 91 | 528 | 5.8 |
| 3 | DeMarco | Murray | 138 | 751 | 5.4 |
| 4 | Montee | Ball | 61 | 330 | 5.4 |
| 5 | Jamaal | Charles | 145 | 747 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Donald | Brown | 56 | 287 | 5.1 |
| 7 | LeSean | McCoy | 153 | 746 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Matt | Forte | 154 | 736 | 4.8 |
| 9 | Chris | Ivory | 109 | 513 | 4.7 |
| 10 | James | Starks | 51 | 237 | 4.6 |
| 11 | Reggie | Bush | 149 | 684 | 4.6 |
| 12 | Eddie | Lacy | 166 | 762 | 4.6 |
| 13 | Alfred | Morris | 163 | 744 | 4.6 |
| 14 | Fred | Jackson | 109 | 494 | 4.5 |
| 15 | Adrian | Peterson | 148 | 662 | 4.5 |
| 16 | Frank | Gore | 159 | 700 | 4.4 |
| 17 | DeAngelo | Williams | 126 | 551 | 4.4 |
| 18 | Giovani | Bernard | 93 | 406 | 4.4 |
| 19 | Bilal | Powell | 91 | 394 | 4.3 |
| 20 | Rashad | Jennings | 80 | 344 | 4.3 |
THIS is encouraging. Ellington led the league with a mind-boggling 6.4 yards per rush on first down against base defenses. Opposing defenses knew he was coming, and yet Ellington still carved them up.
Ellington was like Timex, he could take a hit and keep on ticking
Another key to whether a smaller back like Ellington can handle a larger workload is examining whether he was simply a space runner (meaning he gained big chunks of yards in space when the defense wasn't looking for it) or whether he had to earn his yardage. In that regard, the numbers yet again support Ellington as more than a big-play specialist. Ellington ranked 2nd, gaining more than 3 yards after initial contact.
A MORE ADVANTAGEOUS SETUP FOR 2014
- RB Depth chart has changed in Ellington's favor -- Rashard Mendenhall retired and Ryan Williams was released (all the talent in the world but injuries held him back). Neither RB was a world beater but both had more of a shot at taking away snaps than the likes of Jonathan Dwyer, Stepfan Taylor or Robert Hughes
- An improved offensive line -- The offensive line is by no means elite, but the team benefits from LG Johnathan Cooper's return and the addition of LT Jared Veldheer in free agency
- Coach Arians has seen the error of his ways -- THIS is the big one. Last year at this time Arians was unsure that Ellington could be much more than a change-of-pace contributor. This year he's done a complete 180. Arians has gone on record as saying he wants to "build the offense around [Andre]." He told Darren Urban, "He can run the football 30 times a game if you do it correctly, but you’d rather have him have 10 catches and 20 carries and let Stepfan Taylor or (Jonathan) Dwyer have the rest of the carries pound the rest of the ball up in there.”
- Carson Palmer loves him and views him as an essential part of the receiving game -- Early last season, Carson Palmer suggested to Arians that Ellington be converted to a wide receiver. Arians (obviously) declined that request, but it speaks to the potential explosiveness Ellington poses as he's worked more routinely into the passing attack.
POSITIVES
- Ellington was a fringe fantasy starter last year in spite of limited touches, this year Bruce Arians has said repeatedly he plans to build the offense around the explosive second-year back
- Ellington was the league's best running back on 1st down last year, and also ranked 2nd in yards after contact -- both belie any concerns that his size pose
-
The Cardinals offensive line gets a major boost with the additions of LT Veldheer and LG Cooper
NEGATIVES
- The right side of the Cardinals offensive line remains a question mark
- In spite of his coaches' doing an about face, Ellington has yet to prove he can handle a full workload; he had minor knee issues and a concussion last year as a part-time contributor
FINAL THOUGHTS
Andre Ellington has his detractors. Some question whether he's got the size to handle the full workload that HC Bruce Arians is promising this season. I'm not concerned about Ellington's size, particularly when you compare him to the likes of Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, even Barry Sanders (!!!) are under 200 lbs. The fact Ellington has done well in traditional roles (on 1st down, up the middle, after initial contact) ameliorates any worry that he is suited to a complementary role. With the coaches ready to unleash him, an improved offensive line, and no real competition for carries, the sky is the limit. If anything, my current projections have an upward bias toward them as the preseason gets underway. I would comfortably roster Ellington as a fantasy RB2 (particularly in PPR leagues), and as a RB3/flex he could help you win a championship.
PROJECTIONS
Andre Ellington Projections
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | ARI | 15 | 118 | 652 | 3 | 57 | 39 | 371 | 1 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 185 | 749 | 5 | 47 | 395 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 195 | 940 | 5 | 45 | 410 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 190 | 950 | 6 | 45 | 360 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 186 | 870 | 5 | 46 | 392 | 1 | 3 |
Brad Evans at Yahoo! examines whether Ellington will be a workhorse:
The pint-sized rusher should generate at least 15-18 touches per game, many of those come via receptions, en route to a banner top-15 campaign. Recall last year on just 118 rush attempts he logged 12 runs of 15-plus yards. The kid has bottle rockets strapped to his shoes.
Footballguys' own Matt Waldman thinks QB Carson Palmer's success hinges on a resurgent Cardinals ground game:
Last year Palmer played behind a struggling offensive line and a ground game that had a bit of an identity crisis because Bruce Arians wasn't sold on using Andre Ellington as the lead back.
The Cardinals left guard Johnathan Cooper returns from injury and Arians says he'll give Ellington a lot more touches. Guard play is a big part of a good ground game. If Arizona can create a believable run threat on first and second downs rather than relying solely on the running during passing situations with draws and delays, Palmer has two excellent receivers capable of generating big plays.
Ellington had a healthy average per carry in every down and distance scenario, but 3rd/4th down and short. If he can maintain a high level of productivity with at least twice the carries he earned last year, Palmer could have a lot more time to generate big plays and also make Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd good draft-day values.
