AFC West Quick Links: Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers
We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Kansas City Chiefs Coin-Toss Questions:
- How many games do you expect Patrick Mahomes to start?
- Do you expect the offense to return to Top 10 status?
- What target share do you expect for Rashee Rice?
Q: How many games do you expect Patrick Mahomes II to start?
Maurile Tremblay: I'd project Mahomes to start somewhere between 14 and 16 games. The surgery timeline from mid-December 2025 puts his nine-month recovery window right around mid-September, but Albert Breer reports that Kansas City hopes he'll be "close to being himself" by Week 1. He's been putting in seven-hour days at the team facility. Justin Fields is a credible insurance policy, but my base expectation is that Mahomes starts Week 1 but may miss a game or two early if the knee isn't responding well under game conditions.
Meng Song: As of now, early reports seem to indicate optimism that Mahomes will be ready for Week 1, so 17 games. Effectiveness is a different question.
Andy Hicks: 14, maybe more if the Chiefs lose with Justin Fields. So 15 games after the Chiefs start 0–2. The Chiefs aren't going to put Mahomes on the field if he has setbacks or struggles to recover. They will also attempt to protect Mahomes from himself when a play breaks down. His scrambling has become a key driver of his fantasy output, with career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns before the injury. Missing the final two games of the season.
Sigmund Bloom: 17. We saw in 2019 when he dislocated his kneecap and missed only two games that he is just built different. He has also played through injuries in the playoffs more than once.
VERDICT: 16 Games, pending continued proof of the optimistic timeline.
To be clear, I project all healthy starting quarterbacks to play 16 games, not 17. So in essence, I'm agreeing with most of my colleagues. Every scrap of news related to Mahomes' recovery has been encouraging, but the injury was still significant, and we know that winter updates generally skew more optimistically than spring and summer updates. For now, we'll believe the positive outlook. But we all have to be mindful of a changing tone and outlook in the coming months.
Q: Do you expect the offense to return to Top 10 status after three years of missing that mark?
Sigmund Bloom: What happened three years ago? Matt Nagy replaced Eric Bieniemy as the Chiefs' offensive coordinator. This offseason, the Chiefs let Nagy walk to join John Harbaugh as offensive coordinator with the Giants, and then they re-hired Bieniemy as offensive coordinator. That's a great sign. Ken Walker III giving them a credible running game and big play upside is a big deal. Mahomes was willing this offense back to viability last season before going down and should have more help from his teammates and coaches this season.
Andy Hicks: Yes. Ken Walker III is a big addition. As long as the team is prepared to commit to the run. The passing game may add another option during the draft. I'd be more comfortable saying top-half offense in the league, but top 10 is within reach for Walker, who makes as big a difference to this team as I expect.
Meng Song: This would probably take 10 paragraphs, given all the moving pieces, so I'll focus on the two biggest factors: Mahomes' return from the ACL injury and the return of Eric Bieniemy. On Mahomes' knee, there are two questions. First, how mobile will he be? With remaining questions on the offensive line (Josh Simmons, in particular), Mahomes' ability to scramble has been crucial in recent seasons. Second, even prior to the ACL tear, Mahomes' downfield completion rate had been in decline over the last few seasons. Was this due to throwing motion, scheme, or something else? Mahomes can return to his previous MVP self, but there are obstacles and questions heading into 2026. As for Bieniemy's return, that's the silver lining for the Chiefs. Even after having traded away Tyreek Hill, Kansas City's offense led the league in EPA per play. Following his departure, the Chiefs' offensive efficiency dipped drastically under Matt Nagy from 2023 to 2025. To me, Mahomes' return from major injury and Bieniemy's return to Kansas City net out, and I expect above-average offensive efficiency on the cusp of the top 10.
Maurile Tremblay: I think the pieces are in place for a meaningful rebound. The 2025 offense actually performed at an elite level through Week 13 (second in EPA per drive, first in average drive distance) before offensive-line injuries and Mahomes's ACL tear destroyed the final numbers. That early-season baseline is the real signal, not the 13th-place full-season finish. Adding Ken Walker III addresses the explosive-play drought (10 twenty-plus-yard runs versus one for the entire Chiefs backfield in 2025). I'd put the offense in the 8-to-12 range, with top-10 achievable if Mahomes is fully healthy by mid-October and the draft yields a difference-maker at receiver.
VERDICT: I'm not as optimistic as my peers.
While Maurile's point about the offense picking up last year before Mahomes' injury is thought-provoking, I'm still not buying a return to elite status. I'm a little surprised that most of my colleagues ascribe such importance to switching out Matt Nagy and Eric Bieniemy. Andy Reid has always called the plays and will continue to do so. Bieniemy left the Chiefs to call plays and was a disaster in Washington, then he left for UCLA and also floundered. Last year, he was relegated to positional-coaching duties (RBs) with the Bears. To me, the bigger issues are the Chiefs having to restructure their offensive personnel after Mahomes' much-deserved contract extension kicked in, and the inability to field an elite offensive line or find a reasonable replacement for Tyreek Hill in his prime. Have they really fixed any of those issues? I need to see it before I project it.
