We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Los Angeles Chargers Coin-Toss Questions:
- Do you expect the Chargers to throw more with Mike McDaniel?
- Who finishes second and third in targets?
Q: Do you expect the Chargers to throw more with Mike McDaniel?
Andy Hicks: No. I expect them to call more productive plays. If every running back goes down again, they will have to throw, but this offense works better when Justin Herbert isn't the be-all and end-all. Turnovers were way up last year as the offense fell around him. Omarion Hampton can carry this offense if healthy.
Maurile Tremblay: I don't expect them to throw more. I expect them to run more. But I'm not all that confident in that guess. I think with Omarion Hampton healthy, tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater (hopefully) healthy, and Charlie Kolar and Alec Ingold blocking, the running game is much better set up to succeed in 2026, and ideally, there won't be as many third-and-longs.
Meng Song: Absolutely, and I've already bet on Justin Herbert to win MVP. While Justin Herbert is good at making plays out of nothing, McDaniel should help make his job easier with more quick passes and YAC. The return of a healthy Alt and Slater to anchor the offensive line should be a huge boost to passing efficiency as well, along with an upgrade at center to Tyler Biadasz. Although Jim Harbaugh has historically favored strong run games to complement stout defenses, McDaniel's short-to-intermediate passing schemes act as an extension of the run game. With reports that Harbaugh wanted McDaniel on board, I don't foresee him restricting McDaniel from calling plays as he sees fit, even if it's a more pass-heavy attack than Harbaugh has traditionally preferred.
VERDICT: No, but each pass will be far more effective.
Meng isn't wrong to be excited about Justin Herbert and what Mike McDaniel's system means for him, but I think he's off base expecting that to lead to more passing attempts. The Chargers threw 569 times last season, ranking 13th in the league. The problem was that injuries across the offensive line led to inopportune game scripts and a necessity to throw far more than the offense intended. McDaniel's schematic creativity and much-improved roster health both point to a significant improvement in per-play efficiency. I project the Chargers to throw 540 times (down from 2025) but expect yards per attempt to jump from 6.9 to 7.8, the touchdown rate to improve from 4.6% to 5.7%, and the sack rate to drop by nearly half.
