AFC West Quick Links: Denver | Kansas City | Las Vegas | LA Chargers
We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Denver Broncos Coin-Toss Questions:
- Who do you rank higher: J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey?
- What do you see the rushing attempt split will be for both?
- Who do you rank higher, Jaylen Waddle or Courtland Sutton?
- What do you see the target share being for both?
Q: Who do you rank higher: J.K. Dobbins or RJ Harvey?
Maurile Tremblay: I'd rank Dobbins higher, though not by a wide margin. The Broncos' rushing efficiency dropped dramatically after his Week 10 injury (from 4.5 YPC to 3.2), and his career average of 5.2 YPC on 582 carries puts him in elite company alongside De'Von Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs. He was on pace for a strong season before the Lisfranc injury, sitting fifth in the NFL in rushing yards through 10 weeks. The $20M contract with $8M guaranteed also signals that the organization views him as the lead back. That said, Harvey's rookie receiving production was outstanding, and his big-play ability (three 35+ yard runs) shows legitimate explosiveness. But I'd view Harvey as the contingency plan, with Dobbins the presumptive starter.
Andy Hicks: Harvey. You have to. Dobbins has missed 11 games over the last two years. Those are his best years. Projecting Dobbins to play a full season seems a mistake for any prognosticator. Harvey played every game and developed strongly as his rookie season progressed. A full off-season should greatly improve his numbers in 2026.
Meng Song: In general, I tend to fade older RBs coming off fairly major injuries, so not Dobbins.
Sigmund Bloom: Dobbins. I see no reason this would change significantly from last season. The Broncos' saying that RB was a need reinforces this for me.
VERDICT: Dobbins is the better fantasy asset, while healthy.
My colleagues are completely divided on how to read this situation, but I lean with Maurile and Sigmund. I didn't expect the Broncos to re-sign Dobbins, much less pay him what amounts to starter money, but that's the reality. Their push to bring him back with that kind of financial commitment has to call into question whether they view Harvey as anything more than a third-down specialist and change-of-pace asset. But Dobbins' injury history is among the worst at the position, so Harvey should also remain a priority on draft day.
Q: What do you see the rushing attempt split will be for both?
Bob Harris: Expecting a timeshare similar to what we saw last year is reasonable. Dobbins was RB18, serving as the primary early-down grinder, when his season ended. Harvey, who excelled as the change-of-pace and pass-catching specialist, was RB24 over that 10-game span. Dobbins typically commanded a snap share of over 50 percent, while Harvey usually played between 25 and 30 percent.
Sigmund Bloom: 70/30ish Dobbins—again, no reason to project a significant change here.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd project something in the range of 55–60% Dobbins and 25–30% Harvey on early downs, with Harvey carving out a more significant role on passing downs. A reasonable weekly projection when both are healthy might be something like 14–16 carries for Dobbins and 8–10 for Harvey, with Harvey getting an additional 4–5 targets in the passing game.
Meng Song: Messy, but regardless, I think the difference in fantasy will be more receiving usage and YAC ability for Harvey.
Andy Hicks: While Dobbins is healthy, he should see more carries than Harvey. Dobbins is more productive running the ball, while Harvey excels in the backfield. Harvey is also more effective at reaching the end zone. Over the full season, depending on when Dobbins is sidelined—let's say week 10—I would expect Dobbins to get 65% of the carries, Harvey 25%, and the rest to get the remaining 10%. Harvey is good for 75% of rushing attempts when Dobbins goes down.
VERDICT: 70/30 while they're both healthy.
I'm sitting at exactly 70% (230 carries) to 30% (100 carries) for Dobbins and Harvey, respectively. Harvey's effectiveness took a big hit once he was forced into the starting role, as his yards per rush fell from 4.3 to 3.4. But as others have noted, he's a valuable receiver and capable of game-breaking plays if the coaches can find ways to get him out in space.
