The Contrarian: FanDuel Week 4

Photo: Imagn Images

 Before getting into Week 4, let’s look back at the chalk plays through three weeks. The table below displays the highest owned player, per Thursday GPPs, and their subsequent fantasy points.

There’s plenty to learn from this. On average, our chalk plays are scoring just 13.02 points through three games, but costing us $6,800—a return of 2x value. Based on these numbers, you have a fine argument to fade the crowd often and turn to more against the grain plays.

But just like with fades, we’ll never advocate going contrarian for the sake contrarianism. There is a method to uniqueness. Throwing darts at low-floor, bottom depth chart players is not a part of that method. Below is an except from “A Contrarians Guide to DFS”, which details the how and why of our process:

The Contrarian: When It’s Cool to be Cool

Sort of the opposite of fading, the contrarian play means selecting a player that isn’t on anyone’s radar, or is being faded by the crowd for whatever reason. The trick is to identify a player that is low owned but has a good shot at hitting tournament value. Without a few good contrarian plays, your lineup has no chance of taking home first place.

But, like with fades, you have to pick your spots. If you want to take the most literal definition of the philosophy, there would be 1,000s of contrarian plays each week. But there’s a huge difference between a contrarian play and someone like Shaun Draughn. Even though Draughn is cheap and going to be on virtually zero lineups, he’s a lock to score zero points. There’s nothing contrarian about scoring zero points even though you selected a player the crowd didn’t.

A good contrarian approach doesn’t always have to be about cheap salaries and longshot tournament plays either. In Week 15, for example, Antonio Brown was a hot play despite his $9,100 salary. His recent performance combined with what appeared to be a saucy matchup against the Falcons created a stampede; Brown ended up being the sixth highest owned player that week (21.86%). He did what Brown does and caught all 10 of his targets for 123 yards. Not bad, but not good enough to win a tournament considering his price.  

Meanwhile, Dez Bryant had an equally good, if not better, matchup against the Eagles and was $600 cheaper. Yet, he ended up on just 8.61% of lineups. He did what Dez does and caught 86% of his targets for 112 yards and three touchdowns. Now that’s a contrarian play.

Those are the exact situations we’re looking to find every week: someone that’s equal to or cheaper in salary but will score as many or more points. You should also use injury scares to your advantage. The crowd gets easily spooked when a player pops up on the injury report. Chances are, if he doesn’t practice much during the week, his ownership will be low regardless of cost and matchup.

A perfect example of this occurred in Week 5 of last year. Arian Foster, after being sidelined in Week 3 with a hamstring injury and clearly hampered by that injury in Week 4, ended up on just 1.3% of lineups. He proceeded to tear up a bad Cowboys defense to the tune of 152 yards and two touchdowns—the third best performance by a running back that week.

Managing the injury report and using it to your advantage is risky and tough to do, to be sure. But the weeks you get it right will cover the weeks you get it wrong.

In summary, it’s cool to be contrarian. And everyone wants to be cool. But don’t forget what happens when we try too hard to be cool: we end up looking like clowns. Clowns are definitely not cool, especially when they cost us our entry fee and a portion of our bankroll.      

Back to Week 4.

Going forward, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian. And definitely use the Interactive Value Chart as a part of your process. It incorporates the core of your roster with the ease of lineup optimization and top-20 stack rankings. Complete with strategy guides for both cash and tournament games, you won’t find a more comprehensive daily fantasy tool anywhere. Use it and abuse it. You can also check out our Cracking FanDuel blog for more information and updates.

The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.

 quarterbacks

After all the preseason talk of Eli Manning settling into Ben McAdoo’s offense and setting the league on fire, we finally saw some evidence of that. Over the last two games, Manning has completed 69 percent of his passes for 571 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. This week he gets a defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks:

His salary isn’t the friendliest but his matchup is excellent and the crowd is scared. As always, when the crowd fades the player, fade the crowd.

For $700 less we have Sam Bradford and Chip Kelly’s supposedly unstoppable offense. It seems the crowd has learned their lesson and are steering clear of Bradford and his bottom-ranked 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Indeed, we’d like to see him throw it down the field a bit more. We’d especially like it if his receivers and running backs would secure a few more targets. In any case, Bradford isn’t expensive and the matchup isn’t the best. But they are favored going into Washington and we don’t think they’ll be able to run the ball. There’s a rebound coming from Kelly’s offense this week.

Without question, the 49ers offense is garbage even in garbage time. But the Green Bay Packers have allowed more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than any other team, and rank 15^th in average points allowed overall. Here’s what John Lee (@tipandpick) had to say about the situation:

“Kaepernick is only 0.3% owned. From a game strategy point-of-view, he needs to score 22.5 points only 4 times out of 1000 in order to be a profitable play for GPP's. A player of his skill set can score 22.5 points 50 times out of 1000, let alone 4 times out of 1000.”

There is a ton of risk with Kaepernick. But his ceiling can swing tournaments.

In the bargain bin, we find Kirk Cousins, who just dropped 316 yards and a touchdown on the Giants. He also dropped a pair of interceptions, but it was still enough to hit 2.6x value. This week he gets an Eagles defense that has allowed the 10^th most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks and five touchdowns through three games. Washington’s offensive line took a major hit thanks to injuries. So the Eagles pass rush could create problems. But 16-18 points is well within reach for Captain Kirk.

running backs

Hovering around a modest exposure of five percent, Melvin Gordon checks in with an affordable salary and a date with a team that has allowed a league-leading 464 rushing yards, and ranks third in points allowed to running backs. We think he satiates his appetite and finds the end zone for the first, and maybe second, time on Sunday. He maybe out-snapped by Danny Woodhead 108-93 thus far, but he has 20 more carries. All he needs is a few opportunities in the redzone.

With Drew Brees standing on the sideline, Mark Ingram became the focal point of the offense, gathering a combined 99 yards and a touchdown. Even though the Saints have a steady rotation of running backs, with C.J. Spiller expected to get more action, Ingram leads the team by a far stretch with 11 redzone opportunities. This week he is at home against a defense that just made Devonta Freeman look like Marshawn Lynch. The crowd has shied away but we’re happy to pay his $8,100 salary, especially if Brees ends up playing.

Andrew Luck wasn’t seen at practice Friday putting his availability in question. Even if he plays, we like the fact that the Colts defense has allowed the 10^th most points to running backs. As such, we like T.J. Yeldon and his friendly $6,400 salary. Last week’s game script pretty much erased him against the Patriots, and it’s possible that happens again on the road against the Colts, but should the Jaguars even so much as keep this game close, Yeldon will get plenty of work.

We mentioned C.J. Spiller should get more work as the weeks progress. As of now, it’s hard to have much faith in that crowded backfield, especially with Ingram hogging all the goal line packages. But it sounds like Spiller will finally get into the fray Sunday night against Dallas:

Sean Payton said #Saints RB C.J. Spiller is "100 percent healthy" and it's Payton's job to get him more touches.... http://t.co/nm0Dt4QaeP

— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) September 28, 2015

The Cowboys are vulnerable to pass-catching backs, ranking sixth in receiving yards allowed. Spiller is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward GPP play.

Thankfully, the Falcons/Texans game is in the early slate. According to Twitter, Arian Foster is a game time decision:

Bill O'Brien said Arian Foster and Duane Brown are game-time decisions

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 2, 2015

He’s not listed in the table above because he’ll have a low exposure no matter when he’s cleared. And if he is cleared, get him in your lineup. There are two things we need to remember in regards to this situation: The first is the example detailed in the intro of him coming off of an injury and shredding the Cowboys defense last year. The second is what the Cowboys offense just did to the Falcons last week: their running backs combined 245 yards and four touchdowns.  

wide receivers

With Sammy Watkins ruled out, Percy Harvin becomes an interesting play. Stacking him with Tyrod Taylor is an obvious risk against a Giants team that has allowed only one touchdown to receivers this season. But their combined salary and ceiling could swing tournaments. Harvin currently ranks 25^th among all receivers in PPR scoring and is consistently being targeted.

While the crowd pays up for A.J. Green, we can look the other way to the guy that is going to see single coverage all afternoon. Marvin Jones is our 24^th ranked receiver over the last two weeks after scoring in back-to-back games and logging 142 yards in the process. If the Chiefs defense is as bad as they’ve looked so far, Jones’s $5,500 salary is too good to pass on.

In that same price range we have a receiver tied for 10^th in targets and has as many receptions as Green. Michael Crabtree is finding a resurgence in Oakland thanks to Derek Carr, and lines up against a bad Bears defense this Sunday. While the crowd filters towards Cooper, Crabtree is the contrarian’s delight.

Odell Beckham Jr may be our 13^th most popular receiver, but he registered on only 5.3 percent of Thursday night rosters. That’s absurdly low for a guy that’s just now hitting his stride. Over the last two weeks he has been targeted 21 times and caught 14 of them for 225 yards and two touchdowns. $9,100 is a steep price, but a Manning/Beckham stack is in order this weekend.

The Panthers defense is missing some key players on the line and in the middle (Luke Kuechly has been ruled out). The one player they do have is Josh Norman, who will likely attempt to remove Mike Evans from the game. Whether or not he finds success remains to be seen. What is clear is that Vincent Jackson will be left in single coverage. He leads all Bucs receivers in targets, receptions, touchdowns and redzone looks. A lot of that is the result of Evans missing time, but Jackson will still be plenty busy, especially in scoring situations.

If you choose to roll the dice on Kaepernick, you might as well stack him with one of his receivers. Torrey Smith registers as the true boom/bust option, while Anquan Boldin is the possession guy and end zone threat. Neither will set you back much in terms of salary cap, and both are against the grain plays the crowd won’t consider.

We have a sub-5k option in the bargain bin that most won’t have the courage to start. This is similar to the aforementioned Kaepernick situation; Bradford is a risky play but if you go that direction, best grab one of his receivers too. While the crowd huddles around Jordan Matthews, the shark move is to save the cash and roll with Nelson Agholor. He may only have 12 targets on the season but he has played just as many snaps as Matthews. With opportunity comes fantasy points. Eventually he and Bradford are going to connect for a big game and we think it happens in Week 4. It wouldn’t take much for him to return value off of his $4,900 salary.

tight ends

We are little surprised that Richard Rodgers isn’t getting more action. He’s the lone healthy tight end and was already playing 66 percent of snaps. With Davante Adams hobbled, and most of the attention being filtered towards Randall Cobb, Rodgers will be the underneath option. He comes with a lot of risk since this offense has a lot of mouths to feed, but he’s worthy of a GPP longshot.

If Ladarius Green is cleared to play, he’ll be a solid start against a mediocre Browns defense. Week 1 is a perfect example of what he capable of (five catches, 74 yards, 1 touchdown). Hence, his salary has remains a touch high. The crowd has completely forgotten about him.

defense

It’s hard to separate from the pack with so many good chalk plays. One such option is the Cincinnati Bengals defense at home. The Chiefs are on a short week after getting blasted by the Packers and are tied for sixth in team turnovers. That said, the Bengals aren’t exactly creating a lot of turnovers.

The same can be said for the Falcons but they have a massive home field advantage. Dan Quinn’s crew has only four takeaways and four sacks, but Ryan Mallett and Co. could change that (assuming Foster doesn’t play).

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