Reading the Defense: Linebacker Tiers

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers of equal value left on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

HOW TO USE THE TIERS

Note 1: These tiers are based on 2015 expectation in a balanced IDP scoring system. I stopped producing dynasty rankings years ago when it became clear I weighted the current season significantly more than future seasons. In deeper dynasty leagues, I'll save a roster slot for a strong developmental prospect but otherwise still use these tiers as my primary roster philosophy. A separate dynasty stash tier is included at the end of each positional article.

Note 2: I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts). Early in the offseason, I'll deviate from the Rotoworld depth chart when I'm reasonably certain a positional change is coming that Rotoworld will reflect later in the offseason.

Note 3: I'll add a ^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release. For reference, you'll be able to see the earlier versions of these tier articles within the IDP article list, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. I'll also be including an ADP column after training camp begins. The ADP number will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings, and ADP data from drafts at MFL.

Finally, the date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Each update will be published as a stand-alone article. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.

That's a long, but necessary, introduction to the important stuff. Thanks for bearing with me.

STRATEGY THOUGHTS

Linebacker has long been thought of as the anchor position in IDP leagues. Most leagues allow you to start more linebackers than any other position. Tackles are the highest volume stat -- they happen on almost every play and are less prone to variance than sacks and interceptions -- and linebackers are the tackle-producing defenders in nearly every defense.

Those factors help to elevate the importance of linebackers so much that even smart fantasy owners can't help themselves from drafting a linebacker over a defensive lineman, even when the defensive lineman may be demonstrably more valuable.

In each of the last two seasons, the number of consistently valuable fantasy linebackers dropped considerably. And "dropped" probably understates reality. Severe injuries and the rise of platooning run-stopping and coverage linebackers often made it hard for those in deeper leagues to find enough every-down linebackers to start in their fantasy lineup.

I have hope that 2015 will be different. I can't predict injuries and there are many, many unsettled situations heading into the draft and OTAs. But while the linebacker tiers are very fluid right now, I think we'll see more fantasy depth at linebacker than we've had in the past 2-3 seasons.

In July, I identified over 100 players I could see earning a place in my draftable tiers during the preseason. That number will naturally be smaller in these August updates, as we learn which players have the best shot at playing time in the regular season. But I still have over 40 players tiered into groups with LB2 potential or better. Of course, it's impossible for 40 players to finish in the top 25 year end rankings.

Recognizing this depth has value for your draft strategy. As I wrote in the defensive line tier feature, I'm recommending prioritizing an elite DL over an elite LB as your first IDP drafted and planning to draft two defensive ends among your first three IDP selections.

TIER 1 | ELITE LB1

These three are the class of this year's group. I'm still considering moving C.J. Mosley and Derrick Johnson into this group, but have just enough concern about their floor to hold them out for now. If you're convinced you need an elite linebacker on your roster, make sure it's one of these three.

TIER 1A | ELITE LB1 UPSIDE

I wish I knew where to slot Bobby Wagner. He's arguably my favorite linebacker to watch play and I'll always have a great memory of the first time he had my spidey senses going with his play at the Senior Bowl practices. But I can't ignore the eight games a season he'll play in front of a stat crew that's more likely to give him a 3-7 line than a 8-2. And the Seahawks will again limit their own tackle opportunity signfiicantly. This tier is very tight, so don't read too much into Wagner's place at the "bottom" of this group.

LUMPING VERSUS SPLITTING

Here's the point where I again remind everyone -- veteran and newbie readers alike -- that I'm a lumper, not a splitter.

I group players together by their upside-floor profile rather than how I'd rank them from 1-100. Lumping players with a similar point expectation into a group with a high floor and questionable upside, a group with high upside and a worrisome floor, or a group mostly dependent on sacks is very helpful during the draft.  If I've already rostered a number of high risk players, I may want a higher floor option in the same tier. Put another way, the high risk and high floor player will "rank" differently in different draft / roster scenarios.

It's also why I resist the draft board approach I use in the combined rookie draft board feature. I could present these tiers side-by-side. But there would be very little separation from top-to-bottom and left-to-right. Yes, there are a lot of names lumped together. But that's why I love tiers. Knowing before your first round pick that the players you've tiered together as your possible LB2 targets will come off the board over many rounds is huge. 

So be true to this process. If you know you will draft Kiko Alonso rounds before any other player in your X tier, he either needs to be moved up to the "bottom" of your earlier tier or the other players in Alonso's tier need to be moved down.

The lumping of players into three separate "Tier 2" groups is my way of identifying that a Tier 2B player (higher floor, lower upside) is very different than the Tier 2A player (higher upside, lower floor) but both could finish in the 10-25 range at year's end if things break as expected.

THOUGHTS ON TIER 2

I believe the second tier will bring both quality and quantity this year.

The 2B (High Floor LB2) and 2C (Rush LB2) tiers should remain straightforward and stable. The bottom of the 2A (Risk-Reward LB2) and top of the 3A (Upside LB3) are now starting to come into focus, but many of those names will be interchangeable. Don't hesitate to move a player in that range up or down. 

TIER 2A | RISK-REWARD LB2

This tier is also tight from top to bottom. I've stashed Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, and Vontaze Burfict at the bottom of the group while we wait for their injury rehabilitations to fully play out. Burfict made enough progress last month to have a chance to be ready for opening weekend, but I still think he's 50-50 at best to avoid the inseason PUP list.

Preston Brown is the big mover here. The Bills confirmed they'll be using a 4-3 Under front and released a depth chart with Brown at middle linebacker and Nigel Bradham at strong side linebacker. Don't worry about the strong side linebacker designation here. This is still a good role for Bradham. However, the middle linebacker is essentially the weak side inside backer here and Brown's pass rush upside will play under Rex Ryan. I've also moved Clay Matthews up into the middle of this tier. He's all but assured of playing inside on base downs and will still see plenty of pass rushing stats. It's a role that could mean 70 solos and 12 sacks. If I can convince myself Matthews has a high percentage chance at 70 solos, he'll move still higher in future updates.

TIER 2B | HIGH FLOOR LB2

There are some very good names on this list. To make this tier, a linebacker has to play every down, be capable of 88-92 solos, and add something in the pass rush or coverage categories (pass rush, passes defensed, etc.). That's a strong every week fantasy performer.

What I don't see from this group is 100+ solo tackle upside or the potential for a big play in any given game. I may be underrating Worrilow or Robinson or Tulloch or Lofton a tad, but I don't believe the talent or athletic ability equals the players in the 1A or 2A tiers. But this list of names is a good indication of the kind of linebacker group you can put together if you wait 6-8 rounds after Kuechly and David are drafted to start filling out your linebacker roster.

TIER 2C | RUSH / BIG PLAY LB2

Every season, I'm asked to identify an undervalued edge linebacker who will break into this elite tier. In most seasons, there's a strong candidate. Cameron Wake and Justin Houston didn't have big sack numbers early in their careers but had the per snap rush numbers of elite pass rushers. They also had the tape to back it up.

Last year didn't present a Wake - Houston type candidate. Prior to today, we definitely had one this year -- Khalil Mack. But the Raiders released a depth chart confirming what has been a not-so-closely guarded secret since May. Mack will be listed as a defensive end this season and I fully expect him to be re-classified on league management sites soon.

THOUGHTS ON TIER 3 AND BEYOND

There's still some work to be done here, but I've cleaned up the Tier Jumper | Preseason Watch List tier. Players I'm comfortable drafting and rostering have been moved into the second and third tiers. I've separated players I'll be deleting in the next update into a separate On Their Way Out tier to close the loop on the Tier Jumper group.

TIER 3A | UPSIDE LB3

I really like the top half of this tier, which is why I wrote above that you can consider players like Ryan Shazier, Eric Kendricks, Christian Jones, and Stephone Anthony as a continuation of the Risk-Reward LB2 tier. But those four players need their roles solidified during training camp to earn slots in the LB2 group. Anthony Hitchens, who may see extended time at middle linebacker now, and Devon Kennard, who is quietly asserting himself as an ascending every-down outside linebacker, both have my attention after strong starts to their training camps.

TIER 3B | HIGH FLOOR LB3

These players would be well into the 30s on a straight rank list. But this group is full of high floor, trustworthy fantasy talent. It feels wrong to put Daryl Smith and Jerrell Freeman here, but the ceiling just isn't there for them any longer. Anthony Barr will move up if he proves his balky knee will allow him to handle consecutive practices. And Demario Davis, Donald Butler, and Justin Durant will likely find themselves inside the weekly Top 30 more often than not.

MATCHUP RUSH LB

This tier is deeper than ever. Every player on this list has double digit sack potential. Consistency and lack of tackle upside keep them out of the elite tier for now. Those in big play leagues can roster the top half of this list as LB2/LB3 without concern. Balanced league owners should probably plan to stream these players by matchup unless and until one shows elite week-to-week upside.

formerly in tier jumper list now well down the draft board

Here are the players I'm deleting from the next tier update unless they show a strong change in fortune. Jon Bostic and Chris Kirksey have the best chance at Week 1 value. All of these players should be in the forefront of your mind should an injury shake up their team's depth chart.

DYNASTY STASH

Here's a long list of options to consider in deeper leagues.

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.