Cracking FanDuel: Week 5

Photo: Imagn Images

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 5 Price
• The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Finally we have some data

Last year, I did not have a losing FanDuel week from from week 5 on. Some of that was likely variance and/or luck, but I suspect another reason was that the data becomes a bit clearer after some games have been played.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• The Dallas Cowboys are a 9 point underdog at home against the New England Patriots. Let that sink in a bit. Clearly this line would not have been this in week 1 with a healthy Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, but it's where the Cowboys sit before their week 5 game. The Patriots, fresh off a bye, are back on their "Scorch the Earth Tour" and I don't see them letting their foot off of the uptempo attack anytime soon. It's resulted in these game averages for the passing attack: 32 completions (1st in NFL); 44 pass attempts (2nd), 370 passing yards (1st) and 3 TDs (1st). No other team is even close to these numbers. Vegas Insiders pegs this game as the highest scoring game of the week (at 49.5 points) and we think it has all the characteristics of one. As good as New England's offense has been, they give up a lot of yards (teams are averaging 495 yards and 3 TDs of combined offense per week). It's hard to see Dallas putting up those kinds numbers with a depleted team, but stranger things have happened. At a minimum though, you need your cash lineups stocked with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman. All figure to have a role in this one. If the game script goes like Vegas thinks it will then some Dallas pass catchers (Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Jason Witten) should benefit as well. Almost no one in this game is a bad play on paper.
   
• Give me some BOOBIE! - Mostly I just wanted to say that, but at $4,500 Anthony "Boobie" Dixon does afford you lots of other possibilities should you roster him. The Cracking FanDuel eBook showed us that RBs at home that are heavily favored tend to smash their price (and have huge ceilings). Justin Forsett (BAL/-7), Devonta Freeman (ATL/-7), Jamaal Charles (KC/-9) and Eddie Lacy (GB/-9.5) best fit that criteria. The New York Giants are also favored by 7 at home, but are in a RBBC with no clear workhorse. I like all of these situations and think I will mix/match for variations on the same theme.
   
• A few guys look like they are about the team's only real option in the passing game. WR Pierre Garcon (WAS) and TEs Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay (MIA) need to be considered simply because their teams are so depleted in the passing game. These players should all have a lot of targets in week 5.
   
• Although this can be a GPP trick, consider stacking your defense and RB this week in Triple Ups. I like these pairs to do well together (BUF/Dixon, ATL/Freeman, GB/Lacy, BAL/Forsett and KC/Charles). If the game script goes as Vegas expects it to, then these options should both come through for you giving you the extra bounce needed in multiplier events.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 135.0

• QB Alex Smith, KC - $6,900
• RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT - $9,000
• RB Jamaal Charles, KC - $9,100
• TE Martellus Bennett, CHI - $5,900
• WR Pierre Garcon, WAS - $6,200
• WR John Brown, ARI - $5,900
• WR Julian Edelman, NE - $7,700
• TD Baltimore Ravens - $4,500
• PK Matt Bryant, ATL - $4,800

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 131.0 

• QB Tom Brady, NE - $8,800
• RB Anthony Dixon, BUF - $4,500
• RB Devonta Freeman, ATL - $7,600
• TE Rob Gronkowski, NE - $8,400
• WR Pierre Garcon, WAS $6,200
• WR Julian Edelman, NE - $7,700
• WR Jordan Matthews, PHI - $6,800
• TD Denver Broncos - $4,900
• PK Stephen Gostkowski, NE - $5,000