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Over the past three weeks, things that seemed like flukes are starting to become trends. The Los Angeles Chargers have not rebounded. The Las Vegas Raiders continue winning. We can hold onto preseason opinions, but at a certain point, realities start to overtake expectations.
Week 5 Risers
RB Kyren Williams - Los Angeles Rams
Last year, the Rams backfield tightened to a nearly 50/50 split between Williams and Blake Corum. Preseason chatter suggested the split would remain intact, and it did for the first two weeks of the season. But in Weeks 3 and 4, Williams pulled away with most of the touches. He's handled 51 opportunities over the last two weeks, compared to Corum's 17. And he's been turning that elite usage into high-end efficiency, scoring 58.5 fantasy points over the last two weeks. Tight game scripts have dictated more passing-down usage for Williams, and it's not worth ignoring. The Rams will get the Bills this week, which projects to be another game that could lead to extra usage for Williams. He's been a top-10 running back each of the last three seasons, and appears headed toward another one this year.
WR Michael Wilson - Arizona Cardinals
Wilson was on a tear last year in games without Marvin Harrison Jr. Now, he's simply outplaying him when they're on the field together. Wilson has pulled 30 targets over the last two weeks, more than anyone else in that two-week stretch. He's the WR14 in scoring and looks like the guy who helped fantasy managers win championships last year. In this week's matchup against the Lions, with a 53.5-point over/under, he can be relied on as a top-10 receiver. He's a high-end WR2 in all matchups going forward, with occasional WR1 upside.
WR Denzel Boston - Cleveland Browns
Boston is looking like a dominant WR1 early in his NFL career. He's leading the Browns in receiving and 11th in total EPA among all receivers. Boston is an imposing receiver, standing 6-4 with a thick frame and freakish speed. He's won in a myriad of ways: deep, short, inside, outside, contested, or wide open. He's averaging the seventh-most yards after the catch per reception on the league's 16th-deepest average target depth. That combination of deep usage and elite after-the-catch ability has helped Boston post a ludicrous 21.9 yards per reception. Boston is proving he can tilt the field every time he touches the ball. Just four games into his NFL career, Boston is signaling a sky-high ceiling, and should be a primary trade target for anyone looking to add upside to their receiver room.
Week 5 Fallers
QB Malik Willis - Miami Dolphins
No one really expected the Dolphins to be a good football team this year, but there was an expectation that Willis' rushing would at least make him a viable fantasy asset. Well, he's the per-game QB35 through Week 4. He's averaging just 4.8 carries for 28 rushing yards per game. And while modest rushing could bump a decent passer into the elite fantasy tier, Willis' passing numbers have been horrendous. His passing EPA ranks 45th of 49 qualifying quarterbacks. No quarterback with over 200 snaps has a lower passing success rate. He's passed for just one touchdown all year. Willis could have the occasional boom game given his skill set, but he's not startable right now, even in two-quarterback and superflex leagues.
RB Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley pulled up early in Week 4's loss with a hamstring injury and did not return. He was the RB33 in scoring coming into the matchup, far from the league-winner he was two years ago. He's dealing with a week-to-week injury and is not guaranteed to be in tip-top shape when he returns. Barkley becomes a short-term liability with questionable upside. You've got to keep him stashed while he's out and will play him when he's active, but he's looking like one of this year's early-round landmines. Managers with deep rosters and winning records can try to buy low in trades, but his late-season upside could be capped. When he returns, expectations should be reframed from the RB1 you drafted him to be. He looks more like a back-end RB2.
WR Ladd McConkey - Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey entered Week 4 with a shaky outlook after a week of minimal practice. He aggravated the foot injury that limited his practice time and didn't register a single catch. On Monday, Jim Harbaugh deemed him "week-to-week." He'll hope to return soon, but this lingering foot issue, combined with his early-season rib injury and the Chargers' woes, makes him a shakier fantasy asset than he was drafted to be. It's hard to advocate dropping him, but fantasy managers holding him should try to swap him out via trade for any top-36 receiver.
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