DFS First Look: Week 5

DFS First Look is back for Week 5. As a reminder, every projection in this article is my own, and those projections come from a simulation of every game on the slate run 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible DFS lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing these optimal percentages to our percent rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts later in the week) is one of the best ways to find the players who are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

When a player's chance of playing is below 95 percent in my model, it shows that percentage under his name. Keep in mind, this article is a snapshot taken on Wednesday morning, before the first official practice reports of the week. Injury news that comes out after this goes live will change the projections, which changes the sims and can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. It’s a major known limitation of doing an article like this early in the week, but I love getting started early and trying to suss out the potential top plays before a consensus forms. Also, making these injury assumptions and dealing with their fallout is a key part of building winning DFS lineups, so getting started early, following the injury news, and making adjustments along the way is good process.

The injury assumptions that matter most for this week's early projections are in Cincinnati, where I have Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) at 50 percent to play and Tee Higgins (adductor) at 45 percent, which means the sims have Chase in and Higgins out for now. Zac Taylor called both day-to-day on Monday, so Wednesday's practice report will move both numbers. I also have Breece Hall (quad) at 40 percent and Adonai Mitchell (finger) at 45 percent, so both Jets sit in the early sims, Justin Jefferson (ankle) at 75 percent, and Jayden Daniels (elbow) at 80 percent to start after Dan Quinn said he is in line to return. Rico Dowdle (toe) is at 60 percent, Mike Evans (ribs) plays at a reduced role, and Caleb Williams (hamstring) is projected out again, which leaves Tyson Bagent as the Bears' quarterback.

Chase, Higgins, and Hall are the three calls with the biggest impact on the slate. If Chase or Higgins sits, the Cincinnati targets spread to Dohnte Meyers, Mitchell Tinsley, and Mike Gesicki, and all three become values. With Hall out, Braelon Allen projects for 16.8 DraftKings points at $5,400 and lands in more optimal lineups than every running back except Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. If Hall practices in full and plays, Allen drops back to about six points.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season, the betting lines, and injuries on defense, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 11 games. We have our first byes of the season (Kansas City and Carolina). Tampa Bay at Dallas is Thursday night, the Eagles and Jaguars play in London at 9:30 a.m., Baltimore at Atlanta is the Sunday night game, and Buffalo at the Rams is Monday night.

Detroit at Arizona has the highest total on the slate at 54.5, and no other game is above 46.5. This game is likely to dominate ownership in all formats, and getting it right will be a major key to success on the Week 5 main slate.

Detroit tops the board at 29.5 implied points as a 4.5-point road favorite in Arizona. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards on 52 attempts last week, and Jahmyr Gibbs has seven touchdowns and 102 touches through four games, including 34 touches in the opener. Arizona has been tough on running backs so far (16.1 DraftKings points allowed per game, 30th most), so my Matchup Rating calls this a neutral spot for Gibbs, but the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most points to quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends, which is why Goff rates as a better-than-average matchup (4 percent easier than usual), while the Detroit receivers come out about neutral. Sam LaPorta has one of the best matchups on the slate at tight end.

Arizona at 25.0 is the other half of the slate's best game, and its implied total is 20 percent above its season average. The reason is the Detroit defense, which has allowed the most points in the league to quarterbacks (31.1 per game), receivers (46.3), and tight ends (29.2). My Matchup Rating has Jacoby Brissett 9 percent better than usual, Michael Wilson 7 percent better, and Trey McBride 8 percent better, and McBride has drawn 10 or more targets in all four games. This is the game to stack, and there are plenty of strong options on both sides to mix and match in tournament lineups.

Cincinnati (24.75) is a 7-point road favorite in Miami, and the Bengals' implied total would be higher with a healthy receiver room. Joe Burrow threw 54 passes for 428 yards last week, and Chase Brown turned 11 targets into 11 catches. As noted above, the Chase and Higgins injuries are massive keys to the slate. If both are out, Mike Gesicki and Dohnte Meyers should be top plays. If one of the two is out, Gesicki and Meyers are still solid options, and whichever of the “Big 2” is available profiles as arguably the top wide receiver play on the slate. In the sims, Higgins projects for about 24 DraftKings points if Chase sits and Chase for about 23 if Higgins sits, and either number is at or near the top of the receiver projections on the slate. It’s also possible that both Chase and Higgins play and there is no obvious value play for Cincinnati.

New England (24.5) is a 3.5-point home favorite over Las Vegas after Drake Maye bounced back from an awful first three weeks (one touchdown and six interceptions) to throw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo. The Raiders have been about average against quarterbacks and running backs and a little tougher on receivers. This is another spot where wide receiver injuries (Mack Hollins) are worth watching throughout the week.

Seattle (24.5) is a 2.5-point home favorite over San Francisco, and the matchup cuts hard against the 49ers. The Seahawks have allowed the second-fewest points to quarterbacks (13.3 per game) and receivers (21.5), so my Matchup Rating has Brock Purdy at 20 percent worse than usual and the San Francisco receivers at 13 percent worse. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's side of the game is a neutral matchup, which means he has a real shot to put up another big week.

Chicago (24.25) is a 3-point road favorite in Green Bay even with Bagent at quarterback. The Packers have allowed the third-most points to running backs (29.7 per game), which is a good spot for Kyle Monangai after his 30-carry, 146-yard game.

Minnesota at 22.0 is only a 1.5-point favorite in New Orleans, but the Saints have allowed the most points in the league to running backs (35.2 per game, 13 above average), which keeps Aaron Jones Sr. on the radar after he received 28 opportunities last week with Jefferson and Jordan Mason out.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett at $5,500 is the top tournament quarterback on DraftKings at 12.3 percent of optimal lineups, and he also has the highest raw projection at the position at 21.5 points. He threw 52 passes in Week 3 and 35 last week, and no defense has allowed more points to quarterbacks than Detroit. This is an unusual situation that could lead to sky-high ownership, since Brissett is more than $1,000 cheaper than any of the other top options projected for 20+ points (Goff and Burrow).

Jayden Daniels at $6,000 is second at 7.4 percent, assuming he starts. He has 100 rushing yards on 12 carries in his two games, and the Giants have been about average against quarterbacks. However, I still have not fully decided how much to dock his rushing usage in his return from the elbow injury, so this is one of those projections that could drop a bit based on the news and a deeper dive into usage expectations.

Tyson Bagent at $4,700 is the fourth-best tournament option at 6.6 percent in the optimals. He threw for 268 yards on 34 attempts last week, and the price leaves room for Gibbs and a top receiver, which is the main reason he shows up. Bo Nix ($5,600, 5.4 percent) gets a Chargers defense that has been average against quarterbacks, and C.J. Stroud ($5,900, 4.8 percent) threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns with Nico Collins back last week.

Running Backs