Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Tennessee | -14.5 | 47 | 30.75 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Seattle | Cleveland | -14.5 | 43 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Arizona | Philadelphia | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| New Orleans | Detroit | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
| Carolina | NY Giants | -5 | 48 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Jacksonville | Atlanta | -3.5 | 49 | 26.25 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Denver | -6 | 44.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
| Green Bay | Oakland | -3.5 | 46.5 | 25 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Baltimore | -7.5 | 42 | 24.75 | + | + | ++ |
| Minnesota | Chicago | -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | + | + | + |
| Detroit | New Orleans | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Indianapolis | Houston | -2.5 | 45 | 23.75 | |||
| Philadelphia | Arizona | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
| San Diego | Miami | -2 | 45 | 23.5 | |||
| NY Jets | Dallas | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | |||
| Atlanta | Jacksonville | 3.5 | 49 | 22.75 | |||
| Buffalo | Washington | -1 | 44 | 22.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | San Francisco | -4.5 | 40.5 | 22.5 | + | ||
| Miami | San Diego | 2 | 45 | 21.5 | |||
| Washington | Buffalo | 1 | 44 | 21.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Carolina | 5 | 48 | 21.5 | |||
| Oakland | Green Bay | 3.5 | 46.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Houston | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 45 | 21.25 | |||
| St. Louis | Tampa Bay | -1.5 | 41 | 21.25 | |||
| Tampa Bay | St. Louis | 1.5 | 41 | 19.75 | |||
| Denver | Pittsburgh | 6 | 44.5 | 19.25 | + | ||
| Dallas | NY Jets | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
| Chicago | Minnesota | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||
| San Francisco | Cincinnati | 4.5 | 40.5 | 18 | |||
| Baltimore | Kansas City | 7.5 | 42 | 17.25 | + | ||
| Tennessee | New England | 14.5 | 47 | 16.25 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Seattle | 14.5 | 43 | 14.25 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Brandon Bolden/James White (Patriots), Bryce Brown/DuJuan Harris (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Danny Amendola/Brandon LaFell/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Jermaine Kearse (Seahawks)
- Defense: Patriots, Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Drew Brees (Saints), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: David Johnson (Cardinals), Tim Hightower (Saints), Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker (Panthers)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Ben Watson (Saints), Ted Ginn Jr/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers)
- Defense: Chiefs
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), Brock Osweiler (Broncos), Jimmy Clausen (Ravens), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Johnny Manziel (Browns)
- Running Back: Denard Robinson (Jaguars), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Charcandrick West (Chiefs), Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
- Receivers: Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns/Julius Thomas (Jaguars), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Heath Miller (Steelers), Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), Jeremy Maclin/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Stefon Diggs/Mike Wallace/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos), Kamar Aiken/Chris Givens/Maxx Williams (Ravens), Kendall Wright/Dorial Green-Beckham/Delanie Walker (Titans), Travis Benjamin/Marlon Moore/Gary Barnidge (Browns)
- Defense: Vikings, Bengals
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