Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | San Francisco | -13.5 | 45.5 | 29.5 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| NY Giants | New Orleans | -4.5 | 52.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Arizona | Tampa Bay | -6.5 | 50 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Oakland | Atlanta | -4.5 | 49.5 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
| Detroit | Tennessee | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 48.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| Denver | Indianapolis | -6 | 45.5 | 25.75 | ++ | ++ | + |
| San Diego | Jacksonville | -4 | 47 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Baltimore | Cleveland | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | + | + | ++ |
| New England | Miami | -6.5 | 41.5 | 24 | + | ++ | ++ |
| Washington | Dallas | -3 | 45 | 24 | + | + | |
| New Orleans | NY Giants | 4.5 | 52.5 | 24 | |||
| Chicago | Philadelphia | -4 | 42.5 | 23.25 | + | ||
| Green Bay | Minnesota | -2 | 44 | 23 | |||
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 48.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Atlanta | Oakland | 4.5 | 49.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Houston | Kansas City | -0.5 | 43.5 | 22 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Arizona | 6.5 | 50 | 21.75 | |||
| Kansas City | Houston | 0.5 | 43.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | San Diego | 4 | 47 | 21.5 | |||
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 2 | 44 | 21 | |||
| Dallas | Washington | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
| Tennessee | Detroit | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||
| Seattle | Los Angeles | -3 | 38 | 20.5 | ++ | ||
| NY Jets | Buffalo | 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Buffalo | NY Jets | 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | |||
| Indianapolis | Denver | 6 | 45.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Philadelphia | Chicago | 4 | 42.5 | 19.25 | |||
| Cleveland | Baltimore | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | + | ||
| Los Angeles | Seattle | 3 | 38 | 17.5 | |||
| Miami | New England | 6.5 | 41.5 | 17.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Carolina | 13.5 | 45.5 | 16 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Eli Manning (Giants), Carson Palmer (Cardinals)
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Rashad Jennings (Giants), David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Devin Funchess/Kelvin Benjamin/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Odell Beckham Jr/Victor Cruz/Sterling Shepard (Giants), Larry Fitzgerald/Malcom Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals)
- Defense: Carolina
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Trevor Siemian (Broncos)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray (Raiders), Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), C.J. Anderson (Broncos), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Clive Walford (Raiders), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones/Anquan Boldin (Lions), Antonio Brown/Markus Wheaton/Eli Rogers (Steelers), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Virgil Green (Broncos)
- Defense: Baltimore, New England, Seattle
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Philip Rivers (Chargers), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon/Danny Woodhead (Chargers), Justin Forsett (Ravens)
- Receivers: Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Kamar Aiken (Ravens), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/DeSean Jackson/Jordan Reed (Redskins)
- Defense: Denver, Chicago
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