For The Win: Week 12 - Footballguys

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Tough week in Week 11, as expected with a lot of close games and close calls against the spread. The week ended with an epic Monday Night Football contest, and both teams (Chiefs, Rams) have the last two bye weeks here in Week 12. With Thanksgiving upon us and three games on a short week, these write-ups could be a little abbreviated, plus it is the toughest week to write up as picks are due 24 hours early. That matters a ton with so little injury info out, but we shall persevere. As usual, stick with good teams and try and pick winners. Here we go:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

BYE WEEKS: Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams

TEAMS RETURNING FROM A BYE: Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, New England, New York Jets, San Francisco

(Thursday 12:30PM Eastern) CHICAGO (-4 to 4.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 45 to 46)
Thanksgiving kicks off on Thursday with the traditional home game for Detroit, which is also the usual mark of the end of Michigan (and most anyone else) caring how the Lions do the rest of the way. Detroit will be without its new star running back in Kerryon Johnson, and their passing game has not been the same with Golden Tate traded to Philadelphia and Marvin Jones not healthy. The Lions somehow beat Carolina last week, but the Bears showed everyone on Sunday Night Football that the Monsters of the Midway are back and ready to make some noise in January. Chicago will take care of business against a divisional foe and win by double digits, something like 30-17. PICK: Bears

(Thursday 4:30PM Eastern) DALLAS (-7.5) vs. WASHINGTON (Over/Under 40.5 to 41)
Two heated rivals face off on a short week as Dallas hosts Washington in the afternoon Thanksgiving clash. First place in the NFC (L)East is at stake, and the home team is now the clear favorite with Alex Smith’s gruesome broken leg. (Insert “Make a wish” joke here – too soon?). Dallas is rolling after two strong wins and first place in its sights, even though that is probably a recipe for a one-and-done postseason. Look for Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas defense to feast on Thursday. PICK: Cowboys

(Thursday 8:20PM Eastern) NEW ORLEANS (-13 to 13.5) vs. ATLANTA (Over/Under 59 to 60)
The one team that probably watched Monday Night Football with the most interest was the New Orleans Saints, who are the hottest team in the league with nine wins in a row after being upset by Tampa Bay in Week 1. New Orleans pasted the Eagles 48-7 last week and they have scored 40+ points six times this year, and this could be the seventh as they host the Falcons. Another bird gets cooked on Thanksgiving as Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara remind the rest of the NFL that there are more than two excellent teams heading into the playoffs. PICK: Saints

NEW YORK GIANTS (+5.5 to +6) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 46)
Have you seen the Eagles on defense of late? They are a M*A*S*H unit to say the least, and the 48-7 drubbing from the Saints could actually have been much worse. The Giants scored 38 points last week and while they may not win this game in Philadelphia, they should be able to keep the score inside of a touchdown. PICK: Giants

OAKLAND (+10.5 to +11) at BALTIMORE (Over/Under 42.5 to 43)
Baltimore may have won at home behind Lamar Jackson’s 27 carries last week, but that is just not a sustainable model. The Raiders eeked out a last second win in Arizona last week, but the sad state of the AFC is that these two teams are closer in talent than most Ravens fans would care to admit. The 11 points are just too many. PICK: Raiders

BUFFALO (+3 to +3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 37.5)
The truth is that this is a contest between two 3-7 teams heading nowhere. Take the home underdog against a team from Florida in November in Buffalo, and also side with the team getting 3.5 points in a game that should be low scoring. PICK: Bills

CLEVELAND (+3) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 47.5)
The Browns are coming off of their bye week and heading to southern Ohio to take on a divisional and intrastate rival. The Bengals are banged up but might have A.J. Green back, but the bigger problems are on defense. Cincinnati is the worst team on third down on defense, while the Browns are Top 8 and one of the best at generating turnovers. PICK: Browns

NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) at NEW YORK JETS (Over/Under 46 to 46.5)
Both teams are coming off of their bye week, but the similarity between these two clubs ends there. Sam Bradford is still hurting while Tom Brady will likely get back TE Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the top record for the AFC after the Chiefs lost to the Rams, so they will be hungry for the win. PICK: Patriots

TAMPA BAY (-3 to 3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 46)
The 49ers have two wins, while the Buccaneers have three. Yuck. But, Jameis Winston is back to start once again for Tampa Bay, and that is enough motivation for the home squad to get an elusive win. The Buccaneers did put up 35 points last week but this game is likely to be decided by turnovers. These two teams are the bottom two in the NFL in turnover differential (and it is not even close), so protecting the rock will be key. PICK: Buccaneers

SEATTLE (+3 to 3.5) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 47 to 47.5)
This is a tough one. Seattle has been running the ball very effectively, and that has been the key to their recent success. Carolina went to Detroit last week and lost 20-19, not just because they went for two and failed at the end of the game, but also because they gave up almost six yards per carry to Kerryon Johnson. Both teams will look to establish the run and control the clock, but the Seahawks feel like they have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth if they keep winning, and their only tough games left are major night home games against Minnesota and Kansas City. A victory here puts 9-7 within reach and gives the Seahawks a tiebreaker advantage over Carolina, who still has two games left against New Orleans (meaning both teams could land at 9-7). This will be a close contest, but I will take Seattle getting points in what should be a close and hard fought battle. PICK: Seahawks

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-12) vs. ARIZONA (Over/Under 45)
The Chargers dropped their first game of the season that was not to the Rams or the Chiefs, which was bound to happen. Still, they are 7-3 and Arizona just lost in similar fashion (and nearly at the same moment) to Oakland at home. Twelve points is a really big number, but Chargers are significantly better than both the Cardinals and Raiders. PICK: Chargers

PITTSBURGH (-3 to 3.5) at DENVER (Over/Under 46.5 to 47)
The Steelers finally shook off their funk against Jacksonville and came all the way back to win at the end last week, while Denver was able to steal a win at the Chargers. Denver is always a tough place to play, but the Steelers have a shot at a bye in the AFC and they need to play far better than they did last week. Denver struggled to pass the ball and if Pittsburgh can control Philip Lindsay then this one should not be close. PICK: Steelers

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5 to 10) vs. MIAMI (Over/Under 50.5 to 51)
Expecting the Colts to win by double digits may sound crazy, but Andrew Luck has thrown three (or more) touchdown passes in SEVEN straight games. Imagine that. Now try and picture Miami keeping up with Andrew Luck. The Dolphins scored 25 points combined in their two games prior to the bye week, so a 30-20 projected score sounds generous to Miami. PICK: Colts

MINNESOTA (-3 to 3.5) vs. GREEN BAY (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
The Sunday Night Football clash is likely an elimination game as the Vikings (5-4-1) and Packers (4-5-1) get the rematch of their Week 2 29-29 tie in Green Bay. Kirk Cousins picked the Packers apart for four touchdown passes – on the road – and now the Vikings head home after a tough loss in Chicago. Minnesota has more offensive talent and a much better defense, and they should be able to get Dalvin Cook going in this one. PICK: Vikings

(Monday) HOUSTON (-6) vs. TENNESSEE (Over/Under 41.5)
Week 12 wraps up with what might be a whimper, and will most assuredly be a downgrade from last week’s epic Monday clash (Rams 54, Chiefs 51). Both teams combined will likely be lower than 51 points, as Tennessee plays very slow while Houston can also be sluggish at times. The Texans managed a late win in Washington to extend their win streak to seven straight, putting their 0-3 start well in their rearview mirror. Look for an eighth straight at home over the Titans. PICK: Texans

PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Chicago, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston

THIS WEEK'S PLAYS

The intent of this column is to give out not only the Plays for the Week in the NFL but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Unit scale. The more units, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game. (More units = More $$$).

The games were tough last week, and on a short week for information, Week 12 is not much better. Tread lightly.

* ONE UNIT PLAYS *

• (Thursday 12:30PM Eastern) CHICAGO (-4) at DETROIT
• NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at PHILADELPHIA
• PITTSBURGH (-3) at DENVER
• MINNESOTA (-3) vs. GREEN BAY
• (Monday) HOUSTON (-6) vs. TENNESSEE

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.1-1 ODDS):

• (Thursday 12:30PM Eastern) CHICAGO (+2) at DETROIT
• (Thursday 4:30PM Eastern) DALLAS (-1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
• (Thursday 8:20PM Eastern) NEW ORLEANS (-6) vs. ATLANTA
• (Monday) HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. TENNESSEE
• MINNESOTA (+3) vs. GREEN BAY

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):

• (Thursday 12:30PM Eastern) CHICAGO (+2) at DETROIT
• (Thursday 4:30PM Eastern) DALLAS (-1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
• (Thursday 8:20PM Eastern) NEW ORLEANS (-6) vs. ATLANTA
• (Monday) HOUSTON (EVEN) vs. TENNESSEE
• MINNESOTA (+3) vs. GREEN BAY
• PITTSBURGH (+3) at DENVER

** TWO UNIT PLAYS **

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

Good luck this weekend!

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