DFS Roundtable: Game Script Bets

PHIL ALEXANDER

• Bills (-17) vs. Miami - After watching speedster Terry McLaurin get behind the Dolphins defense for a pair of long touchdowns last week, John Brown is an easy call in this matchup. Assuming the crowd is going to chase Brown in GPPs, you'll want to keep an eye on Robert Foster's groin injury. Zay Jones was traded to Oakland following the emergence of rookie Duke Williams in Week 5. But Foster, who starred at the end of 2018, wasn't active for the game. Whoever starts opposite Brown makes for a worthwhile leverage play in tournaments.
• Packers (-7.5) vs. Oakland - What have the Packers done to be favored by more than a touchdown against any team (besides the Dolphins and Redskins)? The status of all three of their starting wide receivers is also in question following Monday Night Football. Depending on what shakes out in practice this week, we could see some punt options emerge in Green Bay's passing game (Hi, Jake Kumerow and Allen Lazard) but a blowout would be mildly surprising. Josh Jacobs has squashed better rush defenses than the suspect Packers unit and Oakland has been plucky, in general, this season.
• 49ers (-10) at Washington - This reeks of a low-scoring game. Outside of the 49ers defense, you can take tournament shots on Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. After being underpriced for weeks, George Kittle is now the TE1 on DraftKings in a week where there is no reason to spend above Austin Hooper at the position. Even at lower ownership in tournaments, rostering Kittle is questionable. San Francisco shouldn't need to pass much to win this game.
• Leonard Fournette is deserving of mega-chalk status. He's handled a staggering 92% of Jacksonville's backfield touches this season and the Bengals have allowed 57% more fantasy points than league average to opposing running backs.

JUSTIN BONNEMA

Bills (-17) vs. Miami – If Devin Singletary practices in full this week, I love stacking him with the Bills defense. Miami has been pummeled by running backs all season and the Bills have no reason to put the ball in Josh Allen’s hand. Or if you like Allen this week, it’s not a terrible idea to stack him with either Singletary or Frank Gore and hope you mop up all the Bills touchdowns. But above all, their defense is a top play.

JASON WOOD

The Dolphins are bad at everything, which means the Bills -- coming off a bye -- should be able to execute their game script without a problem. Josh Allen is one of the top quarterbacks on the main slate because he will be able to run if the passing lanes aren't open, but since it's Miami we can bet on there being some downfield opportunities, too. He's the No. 1 quarterback on my board this week.

The Packers are difficult to project because Jamaal Williams just dominated on Monday Night Football at Aaron Jones' expense, and the Packers receivers are all inconsistent, at best, with Davante Adams out. I don't see Green Bay being a part of my builds this week.

The 49ers, as a team, should be the biggest favorites of the week, in my opinion. Garoppolo is an enticing option, but he ranks below Allen, Wilson, Watson, and Jackson this week. George Kittle is always going to be expensive, but he's so far above other intriguing targets, the cost is too high. Pass on him. Tevin Coleman has been a fixture of the game plan since returning, and he'll be an enticing piece to fit into builds if you're paying up at other spots.

JAMES BRIMACOMBE

Bills (-17) vs. Miami – Josh Allen and John Brown stacks make a lot of sense to me in this game. Also, you have to have the Bills defense at the top of your board this week as they are clearly the top play at the position. I like the idea of going with a Bills running back but picking form Singletary coming off an injury and Gore feels like too many what-ifs for me. Josh Allen and the Bills defense are two very strong plays for me this week in both cash and tournaments.

DAN HINDERY

I would include the Jaguars in this discussion despite Vegas installing them as only modest road favorites. The Bengals defense is bad when healthy. Without their top two quarterbacks and dealing with a beat up defensive line, the unit is terrible. Leonard Fournette was the first guy I locked into my lineup this week. Only Miami has been worse against opposing backs over the last five weeks. I wish D.J. Chark was slightly cheaper but he is very much in play as well since both of Cincinnati's starting outside cornerbacks (William Jackson III and Dre Kirkpatrick) are going to be out this week.

The 49ers, Packers, and Bills are tough to fully trust from a DFS perspective. These are matchups where there they should have success on the ground. Unfortunately, there isn’t a workhorse back to go to. Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are splitting touches in San Francisco. Aaron Jones has been in a near 50-50 split with Jamaal Williams when both have been healthy. Devin Singletary should return this week and will be in a timeshare with Frank Gore. There is some upside with these players but they are priced up enough that it is hard to get overly excited given that none is likely to see a huge workload.