Photo: USA Today Sports

RB16, RB1, RB47, RB3, RB2: those are LeVeon Bell’s point-per-reception (PPR) finishes at running back since he entered the league in 2013. That RB47 finish comes from the 2015 season where he served a two-game suspension before tearing his MCL early in Week 8. From Week 3 to Week 7 of that year, he was the second-highest scoring running back and finished as RB4 in fantasy points per game. Here are five reasons why those numbers will happen again in 2019:

• The Steelers’ system is great for running backs, but great running backs like Bell have succeeded in worse situations than the current Jets
• He’s in great shape and could be more motivated than ever
• Head coach Adam Gase has proven that he’s willing to shape his offense around his players’ skill sets rather than vice versa. Bell will thrive here
• The Jets aren’t Super Bowl contenders but they won’t smoother Bell’s potential to log top-five numbers
• He’s the most talented player on the team and will flourish as the workhorse

Is Bell merely the product of a great Steelers offense?

The obvious and most challenging question to answer is, “Did the Steelers make Bell successful or did Bell create his own success?” We can take the easy way out by suggesting that the truth exists somewhere in the middle. But that doesn’t do us any favors when projecting his future.

Pittsburgh has maintained a fertile environment for running backs for years. Resident offensive line guru, Matt Bitonti, noted that Bell had the luxury of playing with top-5 lines in 2016 and 2017 both in terms of quality of players and coaches (Mike Munchak served as the Steelers’ offensive line coach for most of Bell’s career). It's much easier to be patient when defensive linemen aren’t busting through the line of scrimmage.

Even so, Bell has no shortage of career highlights. Per Pro Football Focus, he logged the third-most avoided tackles in 2014, the second-most in 2016, and fourth-most in 2017. He ranked first among running backs in avoided tackles after receptions in 2014, fourth in 2016, and eighth in 2017. In those same seasons, Bell ranked fifth, third, and fifth in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), which “gives the value of the performance on plays where the running back carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” He has never displayed a blazing amount of speed, but more than makes up for it with his vision, patience, and general football IQ.

And then we find stats like these:

Here are the Steelers' RB's stats per game when they were each the starter: pic.twitter.com/lyKKBVNCM6

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) June 11, 2019

Rate stats are generally a bad way to analyze players, and this situation is no different. But you’d think Bell’s numbers would slip a bit from yards-per-touch standpoint considering he handled over 1,500 touches as a Steeler whereas both DeAngelo Williams and James Conner barely eclipsed 300. Yet, Bell still managed 5.2 yards per touch:

This at least suggests he deserves a lot of credit for his box score given that he returned elite stats every single year of his career, all while handling an insane workload (only LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore have handled more touches since 2013). The concerns of how that production translates to a mediocre Jets club hold merit considering we’re exchanging Ben Roethlisberger for Sam Darnold, and Antonio Brown for anyone else. But Bell has routinely demonstrated his elite skill set as a runner and receiver both on tape and in metrics.

Simply put, the Steelers’ system is great for running backs, but great running backs have succeeded in worse situations than the current Jets. And Bell is a great running back.

what kind of shape is he in after missing so much football?

Earlier this year before officially signing with the Jets, rumors circulated that he put on nearly 35 pounds while missing football in 2018, ballooning from his playing weight of 225 pounds to 260 pounds. But those concerns were quieted with this inside look at his offseason. Long story short: he hasn’t been sitting around the pool eating whatever he wants all day. Instead, Bell has (according to his personal trainer, Pete Bommarito) essentially taken on combine-style training as if he’s yet to be drafted by the NFL:

“Bommarito is the mastermind behind Bell's offseason program -- a comprehensive, scientific regimen that includes everything from 40-yard sprints to Pilates to banded TKEs (terminal knee extensions) for quadriceps development. Bell also has access to a nutritionist, a massage therapist and an acupuncturist; if he wants to grab a meal, there's an in-house chef ready to prepare his order.”

While we need to acknowledge that every personal trainer of any star player is liable to stretch the truth regarding their client’s exercise routines and physical condition, even former Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley noted that Bell always showed up to camp in phenomenal shape:

"He's a highly competitive guy and an extremely hard worker. Besides AB, nobody came in and looked in better condition, and he did most of it on his own because I don't know if he was ever there for much of the offseason except his rookie year. He'll have a chip on his shoulder, and he's very talented. It'll be interesting in New York. It'll be fun to watch."

There’s nothing wrong with holding reservations about a player who missed 17 months of football, especially when that player transfers from a perennial offensive juggernaut to the New York Jets. But at this point, with Bell at camp and practicing with his new team, concerns of his physical condition shouldn’t prevent anyone from drafting him in the top-five.

How bad are the Jets?

Only three teams logged fewer yards and more turnovers than the Jets in 2018, and only nine managed to score fewer points while only six teams ran fewer plays. No matter which offensive stats you dig up, you’ll find the Jets near the bottom.

In particular, they fielded one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines of 2018. Per Football Outsiders, they finished dead last in both adjusted line yards and stuffed rank (percentage of runs where the back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage). Their stuffed ranked especially hurts considering Bell’s lauded patience as a ball carrier.

But rookie quarterback, Sam Darnold, did show signs of promise as the season matured. After missing three games due to an injury, he came back strong from Week 14 to Week 16 with 764 passing yards and six touchdowns to only one interception (QB7 numbers). During that stretch, running back Elijah McGuire ranked 10th in PPR points. On the season, Isaiah Crowell logged 685 rushing yards, six touchdowns and ranked 12th in yards per carry among running backs with at least 100 attempts. In fact, Crowell ranked 24th in PPR points and 21st in standard scoring from Week 1 to Week 13 before getting injured in Week 14 despite the Jets horrid offensive line—a clue that perhaps Bell, who is much better than both Crowell and McGuire, will be just fine without the Steelers.

While there’s no Super Bowl in sight, the Jets are on their way up. Darnold looks the part and should find success under Gase, who has a bundle of experience in multiple schemes from the West Coast to the Air Coryell. Outside of Peyton Manning (who happened to have one of the best seasons by any quarterback ever under Gase), he has never had much talent to work with at quarterback. But now he has one with Manning-like traits, at least according to Tony Romo.

The Jets didn’t do much for their offensive line problems other than trading for Kelechi Osemele and drafting Chuma Edoga in the third round. Bitonti has this line ranked 22nd in his preseason rankings but cautiously notes that they might be better than most think.

Around the rest of the offense, we find a decent core of players with a speedy field-stretcher in Robby Anderson, a big-body possession receiver in Quincy Enunwa, a reliable slot technician in newly acquired Jamison Crowder, and an exciting young tight end in Chris Herndon. This group won’t set the scoreboard on fire every week, but if Darnold takes the next step, they should at least come close to nailing the over of their projected over/under seven wins. (It’s also worth noting that the Jets defense looks more than capable of supporting their offense and keeping games reasonably close.)

Will Bell resume the workhorse role under Gase?

In two of three years as head coach and play-caller of the Miami Dolphins, Gase ran the ball more than league average. That led to Jay Ajayi posting an RB13 finish in 2016. He subsequently struggled to open 2017 before being traded to the Eagles after Week 8, which allowed Kenyan Drake to step in and close the season out as the sixth-highest scoring running back in PPR leagues. Even bringing in Frank Gore last year couldn’t hold Drake back; he logged an RB14 finish despite handling only 32.3% of the team carries, while Gore himself logged a respectable 846 combined yards and 4.6 yards per carry.

If you combine Drake and Gore’s PPR fantasy points, you end up with the sixth-highest scoring back of 2018. Add them to the list of running backs that have found success with Gase as either their offensive coordinator or head coach.

At the very least, Drake’s recent numbers paint a promising outlook for how Gase will handle Bell. Drake ranked 10th in targets per game among all running backs after gaining the lead role in Week 9 of 2017 and ranked 16th last year despite logging only 59.2% of snaps. From Week 5 on, he earned 18.1% of team targets, which was not only good enough for the second-highest rate of his teammates, it was the fifth-highest rate of all running backs.

In Chicago, Gase’s offense yielded two top-25 running backs with Forte and Langford combining for 366 rushing attempts, 1,435 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 100 targets for 66 receptions, 668 yards, and four more touchdowns. Those are solid numbers. And while looking at a coordinator’s past results and applying them to a new team isn’t exactly the most reliable process, it at least gives us a glimpse of what the future could hold when that same coordinator gets one of the best players at his position.

Bell isn’t in any danger of losing his role as a workhorse, even if no such workhorse existed under Gase over the last three years, mostly because Gase didn’t have someone like Bell (which is why it’s not unreasonable to suggest he’s the combination of Drake and Gore). The Jets’ depth chart of McGuire, Trenton Cannon, and Ty Montgomery doesn’t threaten Bell’s position whatsoever. Perhaps McGuire or Montgomery steal the occasional passing down or third-and-long situation, but Bell will be the bell cow, and with even a minor improvement from Darnold, he’ll flirt with another strong finish in all scoring formats.

Final Thoughts

There’s no question that Bell’s outlook needs to be downgraded after sitting out a year and then signing with a questionable offense. But perhaps a year off to heal both physically and mentally will prove to be exactly what he needed to continue dominating the league, just as he has his entire career. He’s only 27 years old (McGuire is 25 and Montgomery is 26) and should also be plenty motivated to prove that he was correct to hold out in hopes of a better situation.

No one is suggesting that he be drafted ahead of Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, or Alvin Kamara. Once that list expires, however, the argument for Bell tightens up. David Johnson offers intrigue in a new system, but the Cardinals come full of question marks and field the worst offensive line in football. Melvin Gordon’s injury concerns can’t be ignored, and his usage has been impacted accordingly. After him, it’s either take a wide receiver and miss out on Bell’s upside or take a risk on the likes of Todd Gurley or James Conner. Combining all of those options in a vacuum, we should immediately be drawn to Bell based on his history, durability, skill set, and current ADP (ninth overall and falling), where he’s finally undervalued.

Projections

If you average out the below projections, you end up with 1560 total yards, nearly 10 total touchdowns, and roughly 60 receptions. Those numbers translate to 215 standard fantasy points and 275 PPR fantasy points, which would have been good enough to rank as at least RB6 over the last five years.

Other View Points

Matt Waldman named Bell as one of his 15 rebound candidates:

“The addition of Trevon Wesco will also do wonders for Bell because he's a skill in-line and lead blocker who can handle defenders one-on-one in ways that many tight ends can't. Wesco is also an excellent H-Back who can be moved around the formation and has the quickness to work across the line and reach his assignments.

These additions will diversify the running game, reduce blown assignments and the need for extra help, and open more creases. Expect 1,100-1,200 yards from Bell on the ground and another 400-600 as a receiver is not unreasonable. It puts him in line with a top-10 fantasy season at his position and within reach of the top five.”

Back in March, the Footballguys’ staff put together an informative roundtable regarding Bell’s 2019 outlook. Most of the staff agreed that Bell’s reign as a top-5 running back in fantasy is over. Chad Parsons had this to say:

“I am skeptical of Bell on multiple fronts. He’s coming off a missed season at 27 years old -- historically the peak production age for running backs. Changing teams is generally not a good thing for a player’s fantasy production, and in this case, Bell is shifting from the perfect system in Pittsburgh to a questionable one with Gase and the Jets. Bell still has top-12 running back upside, and a top-18 floor based on projected volume alone, but the ship has sailed on the elite RB1 numbers he posted with the Steelers. I wouldn't take Bell in the top-5 running backs, and I would prefer DeAndre Hopkins over him as well.”

Over at CBS Sports, Jamey Eisenberg marks Bell as a player set to disappoint and is only worth drafting in Round 2, even in PPR scoring:

We don't expect Bell to come off the field much, but he also has to deal with a second-year quarterback in Sam Darnold, a worse offensive line with the Jets and a weaker group of playmakers around him than he had with the Steelers. I'm not drafting Bell in Round 1, and he's only worth drafting in Round 2, even in PPR.

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