This article is about a 16-minute read.
In a Backfield Breakdown, we will look at a team's running backs from all angles. Is there a bell-cow back on the roster? How about sleepers? What roles do we foresee from these backs?
Let's find out about the Buccaneers right now.
Going into the 2019 season, Peyton Barber appeared to be the top backfield option in Tampa Bay. After a terrible rookie season, most fantasy players had quickly given up on Ronald Jones II. People were so down on Jones that the undrafted two-year veteran Dare Ogunbowale was more highly thought of -- especially as a receiver -- in some circles.
Most were wrong about Jones.
While Barber did begin the season as the team's starting running back, Jones led the team in carries, rushing yards, and yards-per-carry and tied Barber is rushing touchdowns. While Ogunbowale did excel as a receiver, Jones led all running backs with 309 receiving yards.
What changed over the offseason? Barber left for Washington, and KeShawn Vaughn was selected in the third round. And, just recently, veteran LeSean McCoy was signed.
Can Jones hold off the newcomers and be the primary rusher all season? Does Vaughn carve out a huge role this year? Will Ogunbowale continue as a third-down back? How does McCoy fit in?
How does this backfield shake out in 2020?
Jason Wood
As noted, Ronald Jones II was better than most of us expected. He averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry, but more impressively, he was a top-10 back with 3.1 yards after contact. Curiously, he was one of the least patient runners last year, ranking toward the league bottom in time behind the line of scrimmage. That says if he could learn a bit more patience, or trust his offensive line, he has another leg of growth. A 4.5+ YPC season isn't out of the question. He also was among the league leaders at his position with a 10 yards-per-reception average.
With Tom Brady coming to town, the entire offense should be much better, and in particular more efficient in the red zone. While his per-touch performance last year was encouraging, the additions of a high-value rookie in Vaughn and a proven veteran in McCoy say that neither Bruce Arians nor Byron Leftwich is 100% bought in on Jones as a feature back.
At the risk of lazy analysis, the most logical assumption for draft purposes is a three-headed committee, with Vaughn being the odd man out initially because of a lack of offseason time to learn the system and win over the coaches. I expect Jones will get the first crack, but McCoy wouldn't have signed with Tampa Bay unless he was assured a regular amount of snaps, too. I think a 50/40/10% split snap is a good starting point for modeling the Buccaneers projections.
Jeff Pasquino
I was with you, Jason, up until the part where you have Vaughn third on the depth chart. That seems to be destined for McCoy, not Vaughn.
As I say time and time again, follow the money. McCoy is nearly done with his NFL career, and he was clearly looking to latch on to a team with Super Bowl potential for a shot at one last ring. Both the Chiefs and the Eagles passed on him, but the veteran back did land in a spot where the Buccaneers could be a potential dark horse - especially in an expanded playoff format for the first time (14 teams this season). His contract though is just a one-year, $1M deal - hardly a major investment. That tells me quite a bit about his valuation and likely contributions for this season.
I certainly agree that Tom Brady is going to change everything in Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers were one of only three teams last year that averaged over two passing touchdowns a game (Ravens, Saints). The thought would be that Brady would open up the run game with a better passing attack, but Tampa Bay was first in passing yards as well last season. Bruce Arians loves to throw the ball around, so pass protection and receiving ability will definitely factor into playing time for the three-headed tailback squad here. Both McCoy and Vaughn are better in the passing game than Jones, so as soon as Vaughn shows that he is ready, he will become at least the third-down back and McCoy will just be a rarely used backup for both. I see the split for season-long as Jones getting 60% early with a 20/20 split between McCoy and Vaughn - and then once Vaughn is acclimated, he should take about 10% away from both Jones (down to 50%) and McCoy (down 10%, max).
Chad Parsons
I am on team Ronald Jones II this year, and this is after recommending rookie drafters in 2018 to avoid Jones at all costs. Jones enters his age 23 season, firmly in his prime for a breakout and/or peak year. Add the Tom Brady factor and Jones' primary competition is an incoming (and older than Jones) rookie in Ke'Shawn Vaughn with a protracted offseason and Jones is on the shortlist for RB1 fantasy candidates available for a sizeable discount. The LeSean McCoy signing does not move the needle much considering McCoy has lost multiple steps since his prime and speaks more to providing a veteran option over Vaughn, than challenging Jones, early in the season.
Jordan McNamara
Ronald Jones II is a curious case. He was a highly thought of rookie, going in the top 8 picks of dynasty rookie drafts during his rookie year. I did not have him at that cost because I had serious questions about his game. He had a disappointing rookie season, but rebounded in year two, with an RB25 finish. I thought he showed good professional development as he ran more mature and showed good development in his strength and conditioning. I actually like K'Shawn Vaughn heading into the draft this year but think the situation has him overvalued. Historically it has been rare for third-round running backs to come in as rookies and make a significant impact. I think that is less likely in a year without a rookie development opportunity in OTAs, minicamps, and training camps. McCoy could be the passing game option in the backfield, but Tom Brady likes players to be exactly where they should be at the moment they should be there. I'm not sure McCoy has that type of precision in his game. In early August this situation is far from settled which makes our training camp reports on Tampa Bay a must-read.
Andrew Davenport
As much as I don't love Ronald Jones II, I do think he holds off the newcomers to be the primary ball carrier in 2020. That's not saying much, however, because the situation is so unsettled.
I agree with Chad that I'm not moving the needle much for McCoy. What I think it says is that Tampa Bay feels like Vaughn isn't going to be ready to contribute for a while and they needed a veteran presence to help at the start of the season.
I know a lot of people are high on Dare Ogunbuwale, but unfortunately, I think he is the odd man out here. If the staff believed in him they wouldn't have taken the opportunity to acquire not one, but two, running backs to handle part of the load this year. I'm completely out on him as a fantasy option unless I hear something different.
The backfield looks like it is going to be extremely difficult to handicap, but I see it shaking out like this:
- Jones sees the most carries, but won't do much more than 800-900 total yards and 4-6 touchdowns
- Vaughn takes some time to acclimate, but when he gets going he'll have PPR upside and challenge Jones for some early-down work but remain in a committee. I don't think he takes the lead role completely at any point in 2020 absent an injury to Jones
- McCoy plays some early but is phased out ala Kansas City 2019
In the end, I don't have any desire to reach for any of these options. McCoy and Ogunbuwale aren't on my draft board, and I have no confidence that Jones will be worthy of his ADP in a PPR league. Vaughn is a pure upside play, gambling that he can provide some punch down the stretch if he is as good in pass pro as Arians wants him to be. But I'm not scrambling to acquire anyone in this morass, it's a pass across the board for me.
Andy Hicks
I am being cautious in assessing both Ronald Jones II and KeShawn Vaughn this year. Training camp reports would normally be vital in evaluating where things stand. On paper, though Jones is the easy call. He is in his NFL prime, jack of all trades, and gained the confidence of the coaching staff as the year wore on. Jason mentioned some great points which give him considerable upside. There is little downside to Jones this year on where he is being drafted.
KeShawn Vaughn on the other hand has to be considered more carefully. When a player gets benched for failing to pass protect properly in college, Tampa Bay is hardly going to let them on the field with Tom Brady. This is hardly the forte of Jones either, but at least he has two years of experience at the NFL level. If Jones loses the trust of Brady or the coaches, then Vaughn will see time, but it is Jones’ job to lose.
When we talk about LeSean McCoy we have to talk about 2020 not what he did years ago. Long time admirer Andy Reid made him inactive for the Superbowl and didn’t want McCoy in 2020, illustrating that the writing is on the wall. He can be cut before the season with no cap hit in case he has nothing left in the tank from I can see and his strength lies in helping the younger backs understand what is required of them on and off the field.
Matt Waldman
There are few thoughts touched upon from the group that is worth exploring in greater depth. The first is Jeff recommending to follow the money with McCoy, noting the one-year deal. Related to that is McCoy's recent statement to the media before he consummated this agreement with the Buccaneers.
McCoy essentially told the media within the past 10 days that he was seeking a contending team where he could provide a veteran presence to young players in the meeting rooms while also contributing as necessary. If you think about the teams that either needed or stated a desire to add another back, you could list the Chiefs, Eagles, and Buccaneers as legitimate contenders and matching McCoy's description of his desired environment.
The Eagles feel good about Miles Sanders and more importantly, Boston Scott because Scott earned significant playing time. They are also a team that passes at one of the highest ratios to the run in the NFL.
The Chiefs are also a high-volume passing offense. While the point several made about Reid making McCoy inactive for the Super Bowl may appear as a damning statement of McCoy's game, it also could be a bigger statement about the players already on the depth chart.
Darrel Williams and DeAndre Washington are experienced players who understand the Cheifs pass protection and receiving game. Remember, at its root, Andy Reid is a proponent of the West Coast scheme that has a lot of spread components as window dressing. Reid and Jon Gruden are schematically more related than people realize--and Washington should have not problem adjusting.
Darwin Thompson is not talked about often in the fantasy community and he's further buried on the depth chart, but the Chiefs coaches loved his incremental progress throughout his rookie season and will provide more competition to Washington than many expect. He'll be protected with the expanded roster/practice squad rules created for the pandemic.
It's likely that McCoy's statement to the media was part of the outward portion of the negotiation process with the Buccaneers through the media because it's a perfect fit. McCoy remains an excellent draw-game runner and receiver who understands the details of NFL pass protections that are not the strength of this running back depth chart.
Dare Ogunbowale is mainly a receiver with a running back's size and burst. Without looking I bet the University of Wisconsin recruited him as an "athlete" and stuck him at running back. He lacks a great feel between the tackles as a runner and while there's still growth potential for him to become a future James White type of passing-down back, his current role is one-dimensional when it needs three (running, receiving, and blocking).
The second point worth exploring in greater detail is Vaughn's game. He is known for being a jack-of-all-trades prospect but also truly is a master of none. He's just good enough to develop into a borderline starter who can do everything required on the field--much like Peyton Barber or past options with starter experience like Zac Stacy, Chester Taylor, Tim Hightower, or Justin Forsett.
Although his physical techniques as a pass protector are above average for a college back, there's a massive jump in conceptual requirements to protect the passer in the NFL. There's a greater variety of fronts, blitzes, and last-second adjustments that occur in the league that is difficult to project success for even a runner who faced a steady diet of SEC pass rushers.
Because Vaughn begins his summer on the COVID list, the team likely fears that he will be behind the learning curve. Add to the fact that this is an unusual offseason and Tom Brady is your quarterback, the Buccaneers will have a greater urgency than ever to be the best it can be because Brady's window of opportunity is closing.
McCoy understands protections and he has played in a variety of offenses here picking up the plays won't be a problem. He'll be useful in helping Vaughn and Ogunbowale learn the game in greater depth in the meeting rooms and the practice field. Veteran players as mentors is a much bigger thing in the NFL than getting "coached up" by staff because the staff spends roughly 85-90 percent of its time on scheme and game plan.
That leaves us with Ronald Jones II. As mentioned, he absolutely bombed as a rookie but bounced back last year. Jason mentioned the data behind the season and it's consistent with the film.
Jones ran hard and with confidence. He also did a much better job anticipating creases and reading the first level of the defense. So much so, that he displayed advanced cutbacks at the line of scrimmage against penetrating defenders that he wasn't remotely able to see and execute the year prior.
Jones didn't grow from an athletic but bumbling technician to a world-beater like D.J. Chark in Jacksonville, but that's the extreme end of the growth spectrum. Jones' growth remains impressive.
The added size and second-level power were the most notable changes to his game compared to his years at USC. Jones performed much closer to what Sony Michel was supposed to do.
So if we're to make the comparison between the Patriots depth chart and roles and the Buccaneers, Jones will be a better-performing Michel; McCoy will be the draw-play-running, swing-pass-catching White; and eventually combined efforts of Ogunbowale and Vaughn will translate to a reduced version of Rex Burkhead.
Michel earned 259 touches last year, 50.7 percent of the running back depth chart's workload. Expect Jones to earn similar rushing attempts as Michel (247) last year and at a greater efficiency than Michel's 3.7 yards per rush.
Also, expect the target distribution from the Burkhead and White roles to be distributed more evenly across the Buccaneers depth chart than New England's. Michel only earned 20 targets in 2019. Burkhead earned 38 and White 95. Jones should earn 40-50 targets because there are no concerns about managing his workload due to health.
McCoy and Ogunbowale will split the remaining 80-90 targets, and McCoy will earn roughly 50-60 percent of the 130-140 carries that White and Burkhead totaled as a duo. Ogunbowale and Vaughn will split the remaining 40-50 percent.
If White was the 29th fantasy runner in PPR, McCoy might be in the top 50-70 backs, depending on touchdown totals. If Jones gets hurt, McCoy and Vaughn could split the workload and one of them could manage to threaten top-36 production and the other be in the top 50 at the position.
Jeff Haseley
My thought process on the Buccaneers backfield takes me back to Ronald Jones II as the best fantasy option every time. I was a proponent of Jones before the LeSean McCoy signing and I still am now. As Matt mentioned, Ke'Shawn Vaughn is likely going to be behind the learning curve, which in my opinion was the reason why they went ahead and pursued McCoy. I see the depth chart shaking out like this:
- Ronald Jones II - first and second down carries with some third downs and passing situations sprinkled in. at a bulked up 225 he could score 6-8 touchdowns this season, especially if the offense is as advertised.
- Dare Ogunbowale - third-down opportunities and definite passing situations.
- LeSean McCoy - backup running back, veteran presence until Vaughn is ready. McCoy is getting opportunities (KC, TB) due to his past successes, but I feel his best days are long gone. He must also have an outstanding agent.
- KeShawn Vaughn - eventual backup and possible opportunity for more depending on the play of Jones. It will take time for Vaughn to get to this point.
Phil Alexander
Matt provided some excellent analysis here, but I'm more suspicious of McCoy's potential role. The timing of McCoy's signing, coming right on the heels of Vaughn being placed on the COVID list, doesn't seem like a coincidence. Do the Buccaneers even add him to the mix if Vaughn was expected to be full-go for the start of training camp?
Matt provided some excellent analysis here, but I'm more suspicious of McCoy's potential role. The timing of McCoy's signing, coming right on the heels of Vaughn's placement on the COVID list, doesn't seem like a coincidence. Do the Buccaneers even add him to the mix if Vaughn was full-go for the start of training camp?
In the end, I'm avoiding all of these guys and Dare Ogunbowale in my draft plans. Vaughn is the one I'm most interested in as a potential stretch-run contributor, but he's more of a waiver watch list candidate. His ADP is likely to crater with the addition of McCoy.
Justin Howe
McCoy may well not factor noticeably into this backfield. I'm skeptical he even makes the roster. Phil is right - he was added just as Vaughn hit the COVID list, and if the rookie is quickly cleared, McCoy's place is in major question. Besides, coaches generally want their third and fourth running backs to play special teams. It would be stunning to see any coach, let alone Bruce Arians, spend a roster spot on a two-down pony on a minimum contract.
Jones and Vaughn should be the only pieces of note here, and neither is terribly exciting. Yes, this offense should produce and score well, which would elevate whoever is coming out of the backfield. But neither is particularly intriguing as an athlete, nor as a specialist in any offensive aspect. Neither looks like a 1,200-yard thumper, neither looks set to dominate on the goal line, and neither looks like James White. Jones is a painfully average player with replacement-level athleticism, and Vaughn didn't turn many heads at Vanderbilt. Frankly, I think the only way one of these guys turns fantasy-valuable is if one or the other dominates snaps, taking on 225+ rushes and catching 40+ balls. Good luck sorting that out here in mid-2020.
Bob Henry
Like others, I'm bullish on Ronald Jones II while admitting that I was bearish on him going into last season despite similar scenarios. Where others see risk, a committee approach with the carries and targets spread around or diverted to someone else, I still envision 50+% of the carries and 30+ receptions going to Jones.
From a perspective of his talent matching his production, growth in the offense, and development of his peripheral skills to become a more complete running back, Jones has plenty of upside and has improved. He's also only 23 years old. I'm not usually excited when a back gains weight, but in this case, it could be good for him. If Jones proves capable in pass protection and demonstrates even marginally better patience, he could be the best value on the board in his ADP range.
I'm not trusting KeShawn Vaughn enough to have a big role out of the gate given that he was placed on the COVID list and he has zero reps during the offseason to learn the offense, work with the line or Tom Brady, or prove that he has any more patience or subtlety to his game that could differentiate himself from Jones or put him into position to earn more snaps. Draft pedigree is great, but he has nothing on Jones there aside from being picked by this regime (specifically with Arians as Head Coach). Arians won't just throw him into action unless there are no legitimate other options and that's precisely why LeSean McCoy entered into this equation.
I don't anticipate McCoy taking any more than 20% of the touches providing Jones and Vaughn are healthy. McCoy might not even displace Dare Ogunbowale for snaps on passing downs. And I'm not dismissing the possibility that Jones emerges as the best option for the Bucs on all three downs and at the goal line.
Purely from a projections standpoint, I have Jones inside the top 24 backs which means I'm comfortable taking him as a late RB2 when I go heavy on WRs early or take one of the elite QBs/TEs early. I'd rather miss on David Montgomery, Devin Singletary and take a flyer on Jones. I'm also less likely to take Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley around their ADP as I am to wait and take Jones at his.
I still like Vaughn's upside as a rookie, but his ADP has been higher than where I have him valued because I clearly have more weight on Jones. Ogunbowale is always available at the end of the draft, but I'd rather leave him as a priority free agent, especially now with McCoy on board.
It's Ronald Jones II for me. With a 30% player share, the drafts I've completed this summer back it up. I'm invested and still investing.
