Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Looking back at last week

Last Week: -1 unit

Overall Season (+28 units)

We came out slightly behind last week but are still making a hefty profit for the season and looking for another one of those big weeks in Week 15.

Hits

• Our Bills stack came through with ease. Josh Allen had more fantasy points than Ben Roethlisberger and Stefon Diggs easily outscored Diontae Johnson

Misses

• Our long shot Pats-Rams five-player prop didn’t come through. Too much Cam Akers for any of the passing overs to hit.
• Mitchell Trubisky outplayed Deshaun Watson. Did not see that one coming.
• We only hit half of our Cowboys-Bengals passing over. Andy Dalton did not have to throw much in this one.
• We missed winning our Panthers stack prop by a few yards. Robby Anderson easily outpaced Jerry Jeudy and Teddy Bridgewater threw for more yards than Drew Lock but not enough more to cover the 11.5 spread.

Number 5: Rookie RB Emerging #1

Jonathan Taylor over 15.5 fantasy points
Brandin Cooks over 14.5 fantasy points

• This is a positive correlation play. If Taylor has a big game, Cooks and the Texans passing game will probably be busy trying to catch up.
• Jonathan Taylor is finally rounding into form. Over the last three weeks, he has rushed for 331 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor has also been consistently involved as a pass-catcher, averaging 3.0 receptions for 27.7 yards per game.

#Colts' coordinator corner: Jonathan Taylor coming into his own https://t.co/wMDyvCf75O

— TheColtsWire (@TheColtsWire) December 16, 2020

• Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni has said he will continue with the hot hand approach, saying of Taylor: “Confidence is a crazy thing, and momentum and confidence is a great thing to have. He’s got that and he’s playing really good football right now.”
• No team has allowed more PPR points to opposing running backs than the Texans.
• The Colts faced this same defense two weeks ago and their backfield combined for 38.5 fantasy points.
• An already undermanned Houston defensive line lost big defensive tackle Brandon Dunn to a season-ending injury last week.
• Brandin Cooks is back and practicing after missing last week’s game with a sore neck.
• Houston’s wide receivers combined for 18 catches and 307 yards against Indianapolis two weeks ago.
• Cooks saw eight targets in his first game without Will Fuller and should see a lot of targets the rest of the way as Houston’s clear lead wide receiver.

Number 4: Rookie RB Emerging #2

J.K. Dobbins over 13.5
Gardner Minshew over 15.5

• This is a positive correlation play and meshes well with the expected game script. Baltimore should get out to a lead and have success running the ball and the clock. If Jacksonville is in catch-up mode, Minshew has a good chance to at least do some damage in garbage time.
• For all of his faults, Minshew has been a productive fantasy passer on a consistent basis. He has gone over 15.5 fantasy points in 15-of-22 games he has played the majority of the snaps in his career.
• In eight games this season, Minshew has posted 17+ fantasy points in six of them.
• It feels like it is finally time for Dobbins to take over the Baltimore running back job as a true workhorse. We have seen this slow but steady build for a number of rookie backs in recent years who had big fantasy finishes and Dobbins looks like he is on the same trajectory.

Didn't include #Ravens and #Browns data in Utilization Report this wk @PFF_Fantasy or @EstablishTheRun so here's J.K. Dobbins:

Attempts: 50%
Routes: 50%
Targets: 0%

Snap data:

Snp: 62%
1st dwn: 62%
2-min: 100%
Shrt dwn/dist: 50%
Lng dwn/dist: 29%
Inside five: 66%

High-end RB2

— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) December 17, 2020

• Jacksonville does not look motivated to win down the stretch. This is an organization that is focused on locking in a top pick in the 2021 draft.
• Over the last three weeks, lead backs facing the Jaguars have put up massive yardage totals (222, 179, and 176). While Dobbins isn’t in the same class as Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Nick Chubb, he doesn’t need to go for 175+ yards to hit the over on 13.5 points.
• One touchdown and 80 total yards from Dobbins gets us there and that is easily within reach for him in this matchup.

Number 3: Boomer Sooner

Kyler Murray over 22.5 fantasy points
Jalen Hurts over 18.5 fantasy points

• We are going with a positive correlation play here and hoping this matchup in the desert with a 49-point total turns into a little bit of a shootout.
• The fantasy point prop is especially attractive here and worth targeting over the passing yardage prop because both quarterbacks possess so much rushing upside.

Most rushing yards in a game by a QB this season:
♦️ Lamar Jackson (Week 6) - 108
♦️ Jalen Hurts (Week 14) - 106
♦️ Kyler Murray (Week 9) - 106 pic.twitter.com/XW3zzqwtJ4

— PFF (@PFF) December 17, 2020

• These two quarterbacks combined for 31 carries last week. Murray is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season and has 10 rushing touchdowns, so he is doing serious damage with his opportunities as a runner.
• Hurts had 18 carries in his first career NFL start and led the Eagles to a victory against a tough Saints defense. While he did not score any rushing touchdowns, it is only a matter of time. Hurts has the perfect build to succeed as a short-yardage runner and has a history of success as a goal-line option. He scored 20 rushing touchdowns last season at Oklahoma.

Number 2: Stars in the Big Game

Alvin Kamara over 16.5 points
Travis Kelce over 17.5 points

• We are again using correlation to our advantage by going with a pair of overs in a game with shootout potential.
• Travis Kelce has been absolutely on fire of late. He has six straight games of with 8+ catches.

Patrick Mahomes II says Travis Kelce isn't just a tight end, he's a GAME CHANGER!

Should Kelce win Offensive Player of the Year? #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/UQBilbXGA5

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 16, 2020

• In five of those six, he also topped 100 receiving yards and is averaging a ridiculous 124.8 receiving yards per game since Week 8.
• This could be one of those weekends where Alvin Kamara goes off for 30 fantasy points. He has yet to have one of his typical huge games since Taysom Hill took over but we have a couple of reasons to believe that changes this weekend.
• In Hill’s first three starts, the Saints were firmly in control and playing from ahead almost the entire game. This limited Kamara’s pass game role. We saw last week that when game script was favorable, Kamara would still be a huge part of the passing game as he was targeted 10 times. He looked like the Kamara we have come to expect.

If Rube Goldberg melded with Jene Lebell and created a training regimen, it probably looks like stuff Alvin Kamara does to develop spatial awareness and balance #Saints pic.twitter.com/wV2S6tYjt7

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 14, 2020

• Against Kansas City, the Saints are going to have to be aggressive. During their current eight-game win streak, the Chiefs are averaging 31.8 points per game.
• The last time the Chiefs faced a running back of this caliber was Week 9 when Christian McCaffrey torched them for 37.1 fantasy points.

Number 1: Sunday Night Unders

Baker Mayfield under 255.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones under 230.5 passing yards

• Correlation plays with quarterback passing yards are one of the strongest options every week on Monkey Knife Fight and we will take full advantage with this prop.
• This game has a total of just 43.5 points (and dropping) and we should not expect offensive fireworks as we saw in Cleveland’s last prime time matchup.
• Daniel Jones is not healthy. He looked like a sitting duck in the pocket last week in his attempt to return from
• While he is likely to play on Sunday, there is also a good chance we see Colt McCoy at some point. Even without any other factor, we are getting some injury value on the under.

Right hamstring. Left ankle. Daniel Jones is a mess. Colt McCoy is again warming up in the bullpen. https://t.co/Q5w18KBn1d

— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz) December 17, 2020

• Baker Mayfield has been hot the last few weeks but has not been a prolific passer this season. Through the first 11 weeks, he topped 255.5 passing yards only one time. This is a run-first offense that has been very conservative through the air in all but one game that they had not fallen behind early in.
• If the Giants offense struggles, this is a game Cleveland can win by simply feeding Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.