Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March

Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March Dan Hindery Published 03/03/2024

Free agency starts in two weeks, which is why some of the biggest swings in dynasty trade value occur in March. This will be especially true in 2024 because the overall landscape at running back is incredibly murky. The expectation is we will see some big winners and losers at the position between now and when the dust settles after the first wave of free agency. The landing spots and the details of the financial commitments teams are willing to make to veteran backs should have a major impact on how we value those players moving forward. Footballguys will have instant reactions to every fantasy-relevant signing. In addition, I will update the player values in the Dynasty Trade Value Chart every few days in response to the latest news. March also brings a slew of new information about NFL Draft prospects. We always see the consensus on top prospects shift due to the NFL combine and Pro Days. The Dynasty Trade Value Chart includes a tab that shows 2024 Rookie Pick values that can be customized to your league. These values will also be updated regularly to reflect the latest buzz on top prospects and whenever there are athletic testing numbers that move the needle.

The main focus of this month's article is on bigger-picture lessons we can learn from comparing past dynasty startup auctions to auctions that are taking place this offseason. Analyzing real auction results provides insights on the following topics, which we will explore in depth:

  • Evidence in favor of the concept that rookies are systemically undervalued (especially non-premium rookies)
  • The stickiness of player values from one year to the next at each position and what that should mean for our startup strategies
  • The quarterback traps you should avoid in Superflex startups
  • Further evidence you should be wary of wide receivers approaching Age 30 (including one who turned 30 today)
  • The dynasty impact of the changing of the guard at tight end

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Dynasty Trade Value Tools

If you want to see the values in this article in a downloadable format that is easily customizable to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring, it can be found here:

Adjustable Dynasty Trade Value Chart

Please note that the values in this article will match the values in the trade value chart on the day this article is published. However, when I adjust player values throughout the course of the month, the most updated values can only be found in the tool.

The Dynasty Trade Value Chart tool now includes 2024 rookie values that automatically adjust to your league’s scoring. These values will also be updated on a regular basis to reflect changes in draft stock based on Senior Bowl performances, combines and pro days, and overall public sentiment.

The 2024 version of the league evaluator tool is under construction but will be released in the coming weeks. I am incredibly excited about some of the updates in store and I hope you will be too. Stay tuned.

Comparing 2023 and 2024 Auction Values

As noted above, the primary focus of this month's article will be analyzing the results of two different dynasty startup auctions that happened nine months apart. The first took place last summer. The second took place last month. Both are Superflex leagues with TE-Premium scoring and a $1,000 auction budget. The beauty of looking at results from actual auctions is that we get true snapshots of player values at two distinct points in time, and we can look for trends and answer the questions below:

Which types of players lost the most value? On average, the dynasty value of players will drop. The easiest way to understand and quantify this average drop in value is to think about the auction price of the 2024 rookies in a startup and how that inevitably impacts the overall size of the pie remaining for non-rookies. $1,500 or more of the overall budget of a 2024 startup will go towards incoming rookies. That means the maximum remaining amount that will go to the $12,000 worth of players from a 2023 startup is only $10,500. So the average player lost more than 12% of his dynasty value. Some groups of players took much bigger hits.

Which types of players gained the most value? We also want to figure out which groups of players gained the most value (or at least maintained value). We have to be wary of drawing sweeping conclusions based on small sample sizes, but themes emerge. We will discuss some broad themes in each of the sections to follow.

Rookies Are Systemically Undervalued

In dynasty startup auctions, rookies are the best targets. This has been my contention for as long as I have written this article. A great illustration of this idea can be seen when we compare the price of 2023 rookies in last year's startups to the price these players are going for today. The plot below shows every 2023 rookie whose price changed by more than $15 (up or down) since last summer.

fantasy football dynasty auction valuees

The risks of drafting rookies are generally overstated. Of the 48 most expensive rookies in a 2023 startup auction, only four lost more than $15 of value. On the other side of the equation, 13 second-year players are more than $15 more expensive now than they were last summer. This is what asymmetric risk looks like in a plot. You have a much better chance of getting a steal than you do of taking a big loss.

For those who prefer hard numbers, here are the 2023 rookies who saw the biggest value swings in either direction:

fantasy football dynasty auction values

We had six extreme risers and only a single extreme faller (Young). Nobody won bigger than the 2023 auction manager who paid $3 for Puka Nacua. Nacua cost his 2024 manager $147 to acquire in the startup auction. In terms of auction dollars, he is 49X more valuable today than he was last summer.

It is also helpful to break down the 2023 rookies by round. Our auction results translate cleanly to a rookie draft order by designating the 12 most expensive rookies as first-round picks, the next 12 as second-round picks, etc. We can compare the average 2023 auction startup prices of the 12 players in each group to the average 2024 startup prices of the same players. In doing so, we see that the later picks were the best investment:

fantasy football dynasty auction values

Interestingly, no matter what level of rookie you invested in last year, you came out a winner. Despite a pair of major disappointments (Young and Quentin Johnston) and two who did not quite live up to the massive hype (Bijan Robinson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba), the Top 12 players were still worth more on aggregate in 2024 startups than in 2023. The common perception is that rookies are extremely risky investments. There is some support for that in these numbers. Investing an early startup pick or a significant chunk of your auction budget on a top rookie is risky. In the case of the 2023 class, the reward outweighed the risk. 10 of the Top 15 rookies gained in value. Not only did the average first-round pick gain value, but they also gave you "free" production. Remember, the average player loses over 12% of his value. This is the price you pay for short-term fantasy contributions. Any player who maintains his value and helps you win your fantasy matchups is giving you free production. It is the type of win-win proposition that leads to long-term dynasty success.

The real eye-opening numbers are the incredibly strong returns from investing in non-premium rookies. The average 2024 prices for third- and fourth-round rookies are heavily impacted by the value of Puka Nacua and Tank Dell. We should not simply write the results out due to the presence of outliers. In fact, we should expect to see these types of outliers on a regular basis. Stefon Diggs, Aaron Jones, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Amon-Ra St. Brown were similar outliers. In essence, these rookies who are costing us less than $10 of our $1,000 startup budget are inexpensive lottery tickets. You should absolutely be taking as many shots as you can on these third and fourth round rookies regardless of whether you are in a startup auction, startup draft, or existing dynasty league.

The average value of the 2023 second-round picks today is instructive. On average, their prices have more than doubled. The sheer number of big wins for dynasty managers who targeted second-round rookies last year is astounding. If you landed Sam LaPorta, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, or Tyjae Spears, you came out way ahead. You also came out ahead with Will Levis, Josh Downs, and Roschon Johnson.

The second round is the best illustration of the idea of asymmetric risk. Seven players gained value. One player (Michael Mayer) went for the exact same amount in 2024 as in 2023. Four second-rounders lost value. So you could say there were seven wins, four losses, and a tie for the group. A basic analysis of the benefits of drafting rookies might stop here. However, it is the magnitude of the wins versus the losses where the asymmetry shines through. If you spent around 20% of your auction budget, you could have won every single second round rookie last year, your biggest loss was $10 (Jonathan Mingo). The downside was minimal. On the other side of the scales, some of wins were massive. Three second-round players (LaPorta, Rice, and Reed) gained at least $60 of value. So there's a roughly 50% chance you win and a 50% chance you lose. But the losses are minimal, and some of the wins are gigantic.

The tl;dr...invest in rookies.

Stickiness by Position

A recent topic of discussion has centered around which stats are stickiest (most correlated) from one season to the next. We can apply the same concept to auction values for each position.

fantasy football dynasty auction valuees

It should be no surprise that quarterback and wide receiver values were more stable year-over-year than running back values. The shocking number is the drastic change in tight end values. The 2024 tight end values look nothing like the 2023 values for most of the top players. We saw a major changing of the guard at the position with a number of young players seeing their stock explode (Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Jake Ferguson) while at the same time many top veterans saw their stock crater (Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, and Mark Andrews). We will get into these numbers more for each position as we dive deeper in the positional write ups below.

2024 Rookie Picks

Here is my best advice for dynasty managers at this time of year: Grab a pencil and piece of paper and write down the names of the incoming rookies at each position who you are excited about. Then, count how many names you wrote down. If you are not familiar with all of the prospects, I highly recommend checking out the Footballguys 2024 Rookie Guide.

My list constantly evolves and will be impacted by Combine and Pro Day results. However, as of today, the list of rookies I would love to have on my dynasty rosters includes the following players:

fantasy football dynasty rookie values

That is 29 players. There are others (Spencer Rattler, Bucky Irving, Xavier Legette, Javon Baker, Jermaine Burton, Malik Washington, Devontez Walker, etc.) who could easily join the list. I expect the list to eventually end up being just a shade over 30 players.

The point of this exercise? Figure out exactly how deep into the draft you think you can go while still getting players who excite you. Maybe you have 23 guys on your list. You would want to target pick 2.11 or higher. If you have 30 on your list, you want 3.06 and above. Try to scheme ways to acquire as many of those picks as possible. As noted above, my belief is that non-premium rookie picks are undervalued across the board. Find that sweet spot and try to ensure you have more of those second and third-round picks come rookie drafts in two months than you do now.

One of the most exploitable aspects of this time of the dynasty calendar is that many of your competitors will not yet be putting names next to picks. It is easy to get excited about a prospect like Malachi Corley. It is harder to get excited about the 2.11. Human nature is to undervalue the nameless, faceless idea of the 23rd-best rookie. Take advantage. I am a sucker for early dynasty startup drafts in part due to this market inefficiency. I can stock up on rookie picks and players during the startup. Inevitably, you get into the actual rookie draft, and the realization that those late-second and early-third-round picks people were not particularly interested in during the startup start to look much more attractive.

The benefit of targeting those non-premium picks is especially high in 2024. This wide receiver class is exceptionally deep. We could see almost 20 wide receivers off the board by the end of Day 2. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler recently posted his Top 100 rankings for the 2024 rookie class, and he had 16 wide receivers ranked in his Top 80. The running back class is not great overall. We may not see a single back go in the first two rounds. That being said, there is nothing wrong with the depth. Brugler's top running back is only ranked 70th overall. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Brugler has seven backs ranked between 70th and 92nd. This quality depth at the position is going to do quite a bit to boost the value of second-round rookie picks. Remember, this is the same part of the NFL Draft De'Von Achane and Tyjae Spears fell to last season.

Rookie Pick Values

Rookie values will be updated regularly between now and the drafts. Here's another friendly reminder: check the Dynasty Trade Value Chart. The values are updated multiple times every week, unlike this article, which is my view of values as of the date posted:

Pick Value Superflex
1.01 40 46
1.02 31 40
1.03 28 34
1.04 23 31
1.05 18 30
1.06 15 28
1.07 14 23
1.08 14 18
1.09 13 16
1.10 12 14
1.11 12 14
1.12 11 13
2.01 10 12
2.02 10 12
2.03 10 12
2.04 9 11
2.05 9 10
2.06 9 10
2.07 9 9
2.08 8 9
2.09 8 9
2.10 8 9
2.11 8 8
2.12 8 8
3.01 8 8
3.02 7 8
3.03 7 8
3.04 7 8
3.05 6 8
3.06 5 7
3.07 5 7
3.08 5 6
3.09 5 6
3.10 5 5
3.11 4 5
3.12 4 5
4.01 4 5
4.02 4 5
4.03 3 4
4.04 3 4
4.05 3 4
4.06 3 4
4.07 3 4
4.08 3 3
4.09 2 3
4.10 2 3
4.11 1 3
4.12 1 2

Quarterback

Rank Player Value SF Value
1 Josh Allen 24 58
2 Patrick Mahomes II 22 56
3 C.J. Stroud 20 52
4 Jalen Hurts 20 49
5 Lamar Jackson 18 48
6 Joe Burrow 15 47
7 Justin Herbert 13 45
8 Anthony Richardson 15 44
9 Jordan Love 11 36
10 Kyler Murray 10 35
11 Brock Purdy 9 35
12 Trevor Lawrence 9 35
13 Dak Prescott 8 30
14 Justin Fields 8 28
15 Tua Tagovailoa 7 25
16 Jared Goff 6 24
17 Bryce Young 4 18
18 Deshaun Watson 4 17
19 Baker Mayfield 4 16
20 Kirk Cousins 4 15
21 Will Levis 3 15
22 Matthew Stafford 3 14
23 Aaron Rodgers 2 8
24 Geno Smith 2 8
25 Daniel Jones 1 7
26 Russell Wilson 1 6
27 Derek Carr 1 6
28 Aidan O'Connell 0 4
29 Kenny Pickett 0 4
30 Sam Howell 0 3
31 Jake Browning 0 2
32 Gardner Minshew 0 2
33 Trey Lance 0 2
34 Ryan Tannehill 0 2
35 Desmond Ridder 0 2

Auction Insights - Quarterback

Let's start by looking at the quarterbacks who saw the largest change in startup auction price from last offseason to now:

fantasy football dynasty quarterback valuees

Note: Age displayed is the age of the player at the time of the 2023 auction.

If we are looking for lessons that we can take moving forward, one may be that we want to avoid overpaying for mediocre talents at quarterback in Superflex. Four of the bottom five names in the table above qualify. (Bryce Young feels like an example of a solid process still leading to a bad result. Rookies are risky but the reward outweighs the risk overall.) The rest fall into the category of "should have known better." We want to be careful not to let the Superflex format push us into investing a big chunk of our budget on players we do not truly believe in. Be careful with someone like Baker Mayfield. He was a fantastic investment at this time last offseason. His meteoric rise in 2023 was similar to Geno Smith's rise in value in 2022. We saw what has happened to Geno Smith's stock since then. Would it be a shock if spending 11% of your startup budget on Mayfield leads to regret at this time next year? People who paid relatively big money for Smith and Daniel Jones last offseason are kicking themselves now.

In my opinion, the uncertainty surrounding where Justin Fields will be playing next season probably led to him going for way too cheap in this month's auction. His value should have taken a major hit but not quite to this extent (the $144 drop is 14.4% of each owner's total auction budget, a major loss). It is worth sending some offers for Fields while his future remains uncertain. That being said, we should have known last offseason that Fields was a riskier target than the other quarterbacks in the $200-plus range. Players like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert may not have had the same rushing upside but were much safer bets to remain long-term starters. Keep this idea in mind in your Superflex startups this offseason. Starting quarterbacks in their 20s with longer track records of success (Burrow, Herbert, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, etc.) are among the safest investments you can make. All else equal, it is wise to prefer the safety of those types of players over some of the exciting young players (Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Anthony Richardson, etc.) who have similar upside but carry more risk.

Running Back

Value Rank Player Value
1 Breece Hall 36
2 Bijan Robinson 38
3 Jahmyr Gibbs 34
4 Christian McCaffrey 29
5 Jonathan Taylor 27
6 De'Von Achane 25
7 Kyren Williams 24
8 Travis Etienne Jr. 20
9 Ken Walker III 19
10 James Cook 16
11 Isiah Pacheco 14
12 Rachaad White 14
13 Saquon Barkley 14
14 Tyjae Spears 13
15 Josh Jacobs 11
16 Najee Harris 8
17 David Montgomery 8
18 Javonte Williams 7
19 Rhamondre Stevenson 7
20 Alvin Kamara 7
21 Nick Chubb 7
22 Tony Pollard 7
23 D'Andre Swift 6
24 Brian Robinson Jr 6
25 Austin Ekeler 6
26 Joe Mixon 6
27 Derrick Henry 6
28 Jaylen Warren 5
29 Zach Charbonnet 5
30 Chase Brown 4
31 Aaron Jones 4
32 Roschon Johnson 4
33 Chuba Hubbard 4
34 Jerome Ford 4
35 Zamir White 4
36 James Conner 4
37 Keaton Mitchell 4
38 Kendre Miller 4
39 Khalil Herbert 3
40 Raheem Mostert 3
41 Devin Singletary 3
42 Ty Chandler 3
43 AJ Dillon 2
44 Tyler Allgeier 2
45 Elijah Mitchell 2
46 Jaleel McLaughlin 2
47 Justice Hill 1
48 Antonio Gibson 1
49 Gus Edwards 1
50 Dameon Pierce 1
51 Zack Moss 1

Auction Insights - Running Back

fantasy football dynasty running back values

The first thing that stands out is that 10 of the 12 biggest value movers at the position saw a substantial decrease in value. Age is instructive here. Of the eight running backs who lost the most value, all but one entered last season over the age of 25. Be careful investing too heavily in older running backs, even ones coming off great seasons (Austin Ekeler) who are going high in redraft. The similarities between Austin Ekeler at this time last year and Christian McCaffrey right now are striking. McCaffrey is entering his eighth NFL season and will be 28 years old the next time we see him on the field. He has shown no signs of decline, but the same could have been said of Ekeler heading into 2023. Last offseason, during startup drafts, I was always thrilled to see Ekeler, Stefon Diggs, or Travis Kelce go off the board before my pick. This offseason, I have a similar reaction when I see someone take McCaffrey in the second round of a Superflex startup.

The second thing that stands out is Bijan Robinson's drop in value. Sure, his rookie season was a disappointment. He was being drafted as a Top 5 running back in redraft and finished RB16 in fantasy PPG. It makes sense that his stock has dropped. However, this feels like a bit of an overcorrection. Understandably, people will look at the above list, and the only takeaway will be that investing big startup capital in running back is a mistake. Personally, I believe we should view extremely talented young backs in their early 20s through a different lens. As noted last month, this is a spot where we may be able to find an edge over our competition by learning a slightly different lesson from the data (avoid spending big for older running backs) than our opponents (avoid spending big for any running back).

Wide Receiver

Value Rank Player Value
1 Justin Jefferson 50
2 Ja'Marr Chase 48
3 CeeDee Lamb 46
4 Amon-Ra St. Brown 42
5 Puka Nacua 37
6 Garrett Wilson 35
7 A.J. Brown 30
8 Tyreek Hill 27
9 Chris Olave 27
10 Nico Collins 26
11 Tank Dell 25
12 DJ Moore 24
13 Jaylen Waddle 22
14 Brandon Aiyuk 22
15 DeVonta Smith 21
16 Rashee Rice 20
17 Drake London 20
18 Michael Pittman Jr 20
19 Tee Higgins 19
20 Zay Flowers 19
21 DK Metcalf 18
22 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18
23 Jordan Addison 17
24 Deebo Samuel 15
25 Jayden Reed 14
26 George Pickens 12
27 Stefon Diggs 12
28 Mike Evans 10
29 Terry McLaurin 10
30 Davante Adams 10
31 Christian Kirk 9
32 Christian Watson 8
33 Jahan Dotson 7
34 Josh Downs 7
35 Chris Godwin 7
36 Amari Cooper 7
37 Jameson Williams 7
38 Keenan Allen 7
39 Cooper Kupp 7
40 Calvin Ridley 7
41 Romeo Doubs 5
42 Khalil Shakir 5
43 Marquise Brown 5
44 Mike Williams 4
45 Jerry Jeudy 4
46 Jakobi Meyers 4
47 Diontae Johnson 4
48 Courtland Sutton 4
49 Michael Wilson 4
50 Marvin Mims Jr. 4
51 Rashid Shaheed 4
52 Dontayvion Wicks 4
53 Gabe Davis 3
54 Jonathan Mingo 3
55 DeAndre Hopkins 3
56 Quentin Johnston 3
57 Elijah Moore 3
58 Wan'Dale Robinson 3
59 Joshua Palmer 3
60 Demario Douglas Photos provided by Imagn Images

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