TOP 5 RUSHING MATCHUPS WEEK 14
To view all of our Week 14 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 14
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 14
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 14
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 14
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 14
Passing Matchup Chart Week 14
Tennessee at Jacksonville
The Titans continue to batter their opponents relentlessly with the run game, and it’s not hard to see why. Whenever game flow allows - and even sometimes when it doesn’t - Derrick Henry remains capable of rolling through defenses and producing. He’s topped 100 yards in 7 of 12 games thus far, and he’s always a primary threat whenever the Titans are near the goal line. More than a mere bulldozer, Henry still boasts impressive burst and second gear for his bulk, and he’s a nightmare of a matchup for any defense. Henry works behind a solid run-blocking line - our Matt Bitonti wrote last week of the boost that group has enjoyed of late, which can only help Henry’s cause. And that’s help he doesn’t particularly need in such a generous matchup.
The Jaguars defense remains one of fantasy’s weaker units. They showed well for a stretch against a few short-handed backfields, but have been thrashed over their past three, with running backs averaging 5.1 yards per rush and 147 a game. The schedule hasn’t been kind, but it doesn’t get any kinder Sunday, and this unit still looks like one of fantasy’s better targets. They’re decent across the line, with a rotation of competent gap-shooters, but definitely lack a dominant nose presence. The linebackers are inconsistent in pursuit and would benefit greatly from that kind of space-eater. Joe Schobert, for example, is the unit’s new $53 million man, but he’s struggled badly all year and remains a liability. Strong, north-south runners Dalvin Cook (120 yards), Nick Chubb (144 and 1 touchdown), and James Conner (13 for 89) have found ample room here over the past 3 weeks, hinting at big things for Henry. The Titans will be looking to exploit this matchup, and it’s hard to argue against them pulling it off.
Chicago vs Houston
The Bears ground game doesn’t offer a lot of obvious upside, for a number of reasons. The front line continues to shuffle around and ranks near the bottom of the league - our Matt Bitontio currently ranks it 24th, and outside the Top 20 in run-blocking alone (a C+ grade). And lead back David Montgomery continues to mostly plod along, generating just 4.1 yards per rush on the year. He’s topped 50 yards in only half his games as a full-timer, and he’s found the end zone just 3 times. Still, Matt Nagy’s offense is determined to manufacture a ground game for and around Montgomery. He’s taken on 14+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games, with Cordarrelle Patterson working in several times a week on a gadget basis. The desire is there to feed the backfield enough to put up big rushing lines, and their outlook is as high as ever against the sieve-like Texans.
The Texans have spent most of 2020 with one of football’s softest and most exploitable run defenses. Only the Cowboys have given up more yards on the ground (151 per game), and only three teams have allowed more touchdowns. J.J. Watt remains a dominant force up and down the front line; he’ll likely remain one until the minute he’s forced to leave the game. But he’s never been surrounded by much run-game support, and 2020 has been no exception. This unit sorely misses nose tackle D.J. Reader, and Brandon Dunn has been a poor substitute, failing to control the middle as Reader occasionally did. Linebackers Zach Cunningham and Tyrell Adams remain wildly up-and-down against the run all year, consistently missing angles and tackles across the field. Altogether, the group has already allowed 47 runs of 10+ yards, tied for most in football. Last Sunday, Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor repeatedly ran through wide, undisciplined lanes and a number of arm tackles for 91 yards on his 13 attempts. Montgomery may not be the same caliber of runner, but he should be able to maximize his locked-in opportunity for one of his bigger days of the season.
Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers ground game just keeps flourishing in the image of head coach Matt LaFleur. Aaron Jones comes fresh off two fantastic showings against the Bears and Eagles (32 for 220 yards, 1 touchdown). He’s dynamic enough to erupt even against tough run units, and with his usage consistently high, there are few stronger fantasy targets this week. It’s fair to speculate on the loss of top-notch center Corey Linsley to injured reserve; he’s certainly good enough to be missed. But the front line remains stout - still ranked fifth overall by our Matt Bitonti - and Jones should solidly dominate the backfield in one of the league’s best possible matchups.
The Lions have fielded one of football’s shakiest run defenses throughout 2020, and there’s little reason to expect much resistance Sunday for Jones. There’s no real nose presence up front, particularly with Danny Shelton now on injured reserve. That puts a ton of pressure on a linebacking corps that’s especially weak up the middle, where Jarrad Davis, Reggie Ragland, and Jahlani Tavai remain major liabilities. They haven’t faced many strong ground games lately but were rolled over by the likes of Dalvin Cook (206 yards and 2 touchdowns) just last month. And of course, when these two teams met in Week 2, Jones and Williams went wild for 231 and 2 of their own.
Indianapolis at Las Vegas
The Colts have settled on a backfield rotation that utilizes both the dynamism of Jonathan Taylor and the versatility of Nyheim Hines. Results have been mixed thus far, with Taylor putting up just 4.1 yards per rush and ceding some of his work to replacement-level reserve Jordan Wilkins. But Taylor comes fresh off his best outing since September, racking up 91 yards on 13 carries in Sunday’s win over the Texans. It’s strong momentum for the hard-nosed rookie, who works through contact inside but has long speed to burn. He’s learning more and more how to benefit from the Colts’ elite front line, which is deep enough to weather the loss of left tackle Anthony Castonzo - especially against this overmatched Las Vegas front.
The Raiders run defense looked to have turned a corner around midseason but has since slipped back into its typical, porous ways. Last Sunday proved a low point for the 2020 season, with the Jets dominating the trenches and grinding down the field with little trouble throughout the second half. Career reserves Ty Johnson and Josh Adams combined to turn 30 rushes into 178 yards and a pivotal touchdown. It’s not hard to see where the struggles come from - there’s just not much run-stuffing talent or depth in the front-seven rotation. The biggest issues can be seen at linebacker, where free-agent additions Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski have been profound disappointments against the run. They’ve leaned heavily on Nicholas Morrow, who’s taken every snap during Littleton’s COVID-19 interruption, but Morrow himself has graded terribly all year. If the punchless Jets can exploit this shaky unit, virtually anyone can - particularly a talented ground game like that of the Colts.
Atlanta at LA Chargers
The Falcons appear to have settled into a three-man rotation in the backfield - though it could slip to two if Todd Gurley can’t get his knee up to par. Either way, Ito Smith and Brian Hill will likely continue to split carries with him fairly evenly, which would cap all their upsides. But it’s worth noting they operate behind one of football’s most unsung but powerful run-blocking lines. The imposing interior of Chris Lindstrom, Alex Mack, and Justin McCray is fully capable of creating holes on the second level, allowing those backs to at least maximize opportunity in this generous matchup.
The Chargers haven’t exactly faced a Murderer’s Row of run games here in 2020. And yet, they’ve managed to give up the league’s sixth-most yards per attempt and 10th-most per game. The past two weeks have seen the Bills (30 for 172 yards) and Patriots (43 for 165) control the paces of their respective games with relentlessly strong work on the ground. Ex-Viking Linval Joseph has been solid on the inside, and rookie linebacker Kenneth Murray keeps flashing potential as a run-stuffer. But a lack of overall talent and depth continue to doom this unit, which has been shuffled around by injury and ineffectiveness. They’ll get a boost if middle linebacker Denzel Perryman can suit up Sunday, but there remain plenty of holes in this beatable unit.
