Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated on Sunday, October 4th @ 6 AM (EST)
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Green Bay | Atlanta | -7 | 56.5 | 31.75 | ««« | ««« | |
LA Rams | NY Giants | -13.5 | 48.5 | 31 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Kansas City | New England | -10.5 | 50.5 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Seattle | Miami | -5.5 | 54.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Washington | -14.5 | 45.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Dallas | Cleveland | -3.5 | 56 | 29.75 | «« | «« | |
Houston | Minnesota | -3.5 | 54 | 28.75 | «« | «« | |
New Orleans | Detroit | -3 | 54 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Buffalo | Las Vegas | -3.5 | 53.5 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | Carolina | -3 | 51.5 | 27.25 | « | « | |
San Francisco | Philadelphia | -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
Cleveland | Dallas | 3.5 | 56 | 26.25 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 49 | 25.75 | |||
Detroit | New Orleans | 3 | 54 | 25.5 | |||
Minnesota | Houston | 3.5 | 54 | 25.25 | |||
Las Vegas | Buffalo | 3.5 | 53.5 | 25 | |||
Tampa Bay | LA Chargers | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | « | «« | |
Atlanta | Green Bay | 7 | 56.5 | 24.75 | « | ||
Miami | Seattle | 5.5 | 54.5 | 24.5 | |||
Carolina | Arizona | 3 | 51.5 | 24.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Cincinnati | 2.5 | 49 | 23.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Chicago | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
Denver | NY Jets | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
NY Jets | Denver | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
New England | Kansas City | 10.5 | 50.5 | 20 | « | ||
Chicago | Indianapolis | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
Philadelphia | San Francisco | 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | |||
LA Chargers | Tampa Bay | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
NY Giants | LA Rams | 13.5 | 48.5 | 17.5 | |||
Washington | Baltimore | 14.5 | 45.5 | 15.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | PPD | PPD | PPD | |||
Tennessee | Pittsburgh | PPD | PPD | PPD |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Jared Goff (Rams), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Greg Olsen (Seahawks), Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), David Johnson (Texans), Kenyan Drake (Cardinals), Miles Sanders (Eagles)
- Receivers: Emmanuel Sanders/TreQuan Smith/Jared Cook (Saints), Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller/Randall Cobbs/Jordan Akins (Texans), DeAndre Hopkins/Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk (Cardinals)
- Defense: Ravens, Rams
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders), Gardner Minshew (Jaguars), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Josh Jacobs (Raiders), James Robinson (Jaguars)
- Receivers: Henry Ruggs/Bryan Edwards/Hunter Renfrow/Darren Waller (Raiders), D.J. Chark/Chris Conley/Laviska Shenault (Jaguars), Greg Ward/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Buccaneers, 49ers, Broncos