Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, October 18th @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Buffalo | -4.5 | 57.5 | 31 | ««« | ««« | |
Minnesota | Atlanta | -4 | 54 | 29 | «« | «« | |
Detroit | Jacksonville | -3 | 54.5 | 28.75 | «« | «« | |
Tennessee | Houston | -3.5 | 53 | 28.25 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | Dallas | -1 | 55 | 28 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | Tampa Bay | -1 | 55 | 28 | «« | «« | |
Miami | NY Jets | -9 | 47 | 28 | «« | ««« | « |
Baltimore | Philadelphia | -9.5 | 46.5 | 28 | « | «« | |
LA Rams | San Francisco | -3 | 51.5 | 27.25 | « | « | |
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -3.5 | 51 | 27.25 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | Green Bay | 1 | 55 | 27 | « | « | |
Dallas | Arizona | 1 | 55 | 27 | « | « | |
New England | Denver | -8 | 45 | 26.5 | « | «« | «« |
Indianapolis | Cincinnati | -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
Buffalo | Kansas City | 4.5 | 57.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Jacksonville | Detroit | 3 | 54.5 | 25.75 | |||
Atlanta | Minnesota | 4 | 54 | 25 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | 3.5 | 53 | 24.75 | |||
San Francisco | LA Rams | 3 | 51.5 | 24.25 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 51 | 23.75 | |||
Carolina | Chicago | -1.5 | 44.5 | 23 | |||
NY Giants | Washington | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | « | ||
Chicago | Carolina | 1.5 | 44.5 | 21.5 | |||
Washington | NY Giants | 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Indianapolis | 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | 9 | 47 | 19 | |||
Philadelphia | Baltimore | 9.5 | 46.5 | 18.5 | |||
Denver | New England | 8 | 45 | 18.5 | |||
Seattle | BYE | ||||||
LA Chargers | BYE | ||||||
New Orleans | BYE | ||||||
Las Vegas | BYE |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Myles Gaskin (Dolphins)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Dolphins)
- Running Back: Alexander Mattison (Vikings), Adrian Peterson (Lions), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Kenyan Drank (Cardinals), Derrick Henry (Titans), Aaron Jones (Packers), Mark Ingram/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards (Ravens), Damien Harris (Patriots), Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
- Receivers: Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/Danny Amendola/T.J. Hockenson (Lions), Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), A.J. Brown/Adam Humphries/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Packers)
- Defense: Patriots
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Jared Goff (Rams), Cam Newton (Patriots), Philip Rivers (Colts)
- Running Back: James Conner (Steelers), Darrel Henderson (Rams)
- Receivers: Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), JuJu Smith-Schuster/Diontae Johnson/Chase Claypool/Eric Ebron (Steelers), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Julian Edelman/NKeal Harry/Damiere Byrd (Patriots), T.Y. Hilton/Zach Pascal/Trey Burton (Colts)
- Defense: Dolphins, Colts, Giants