Based on feedback, we are trying this article to see how it does from an interaction standpoint. If you like this type of content, please send a note on Twitter or email your thoughts at knotts@footballguys.com. Depending on the feedback we will determine whether we continue the Showdown coverage throughout the year. Covering the Showdown slate is a significant time and investment, so this will only continue if there is interest.
Disclaimer
One thing to call out here is that Showdown analysis often times has much less value than other slates as realistically there are often 8-12 total plays within a game and one play, one penalty, one blown coverage likely determines the outcome of these contests. This is one of the reasons that we have largely stayed away from covering the contests at Footballguys. We are not Oracle’s who can see the future, it is largely a value driven analysis based off of historical performances attempting to predict future performances. The edge from these contests typically comes from large tournaments where a portion of the field simply not knowing what they’re doing and doing things such as taking both kickers, putting defenses in the captain spot, taking backup quarterbacks (yes it happens), etc.
These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
Game Strategy
Overall, this is a tricky slate, as we don’t have the cost savings options that we did on Thursday with Auden Tate or even C.J. Uzomah (congrats for anyone that used him). This week it is priced more appropriately for anyone who is going to see consistent volume within the offense. Both quarterbacks appear to be great plays, but it’s difficult to afford a lineup that is unique and can fit both of them in. So the question you’ll have to ask yourself is whether you want to play both.
The answer is probably yes, we will touch base on that further down the article, but both quarterbacks are in outstanding positions to have big games this week.
Captain Consideration:
- Justin Herbert
- Henry Ruggs
- Keenan Allen
- Mike Williams
- Derek Carr (Stack Raiders)
- Peyton Barber (If Jacobs is out)
Raiders Overview
Quarterback
Derek Carr: Captain or Flex
Carr has been outstanding thus far this season. Carr leads the league in passing yards even after yesterdays results as he has played in one less game heading into tonight. The best part about Carr from a showdown perspective, you can take multiple wide receivers and have a 5 Raiders to 1 Chargers stack in case of the blowout for the Raiders. As a captain, he distributes the ball enough to each of his receivers that you don't have to worry about as much about playing a top receiver at captain with Carr in the flex.
Running Back- Play Peyton Barber only if Josh Jacobs is out. He becomes one of the top plays.
This one is a challenge because the Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL this season, but the Raiders are dealing with a unique situation in which Josh Jacobs looks like he is going to play, but at far less than 100% health. Jacobs is dealing with an ankle injury, but Peyton Barber looked great last week which will likely indicate that if Jacobs does play, there will be a split backfield type situation. Both players are priced fairly, so unfortunately there is not a value play to be had.
Wide Receiver/Tight Ends
The Raiders wide receiving group looks like a great way to save salary on this slate. Each of them have potential, but there has been consistency issues for each of them.
Henry Ruggs- Good Captain/Flex play
Ruggs in his second-year is starting to show signs of having a breakout game, but there still is the question on volatility for Ruggs. Through his three games this season, he has 78 yards or more in two of those three games, but in the first game of the year, Ruggs struggled catching just two passes for 46 yards. He has faced some of the top cover corners in football this year in Marlon Humphrey, Xavien Howard and then Pittsburgh’s defense which while they don’t have the elite top-end corner, is still a solid unit. The Chargers don’t rotate their corners, so Ruggs will not have to deal with a shadow situation, so he will likely face off against Michael Davis who has been playing better than anticipated this year, but is still not ready to be in the upper-echelon of corners. Look for the Raiders to get Ruggs involved in what could be a shootout of a game.
Bryan Edwards- Good Captain Play, fringe flex play due to high boom/bust potential
Edwards is very similar to DJ Chark from last week. He’s a big play deep threat receiver as he is averaging 21 yards-per-catch. The problem is the number of targets is low as he has just 13 targets on the year and has been catching the ball at a high rate (76%) which may not be sustainable. With all that said, Edwards is an intriguing captain, simply because of the deep play potential, but as a flex play there is some bust risk. The matchup is a tough one as Edwards is going to be lined up against Asante Samuel Jr who was just named Defensive Rooke of the Month.
Hunter Renfrow- Great Flex Play, fringe captain play due to lack of touchdown upside
Renfrow is quietly turning into a consistent receiver in Las Vegas, and his price is simply too low at $5,800 for the production that he has so far this year. In each of his three games this season, Renfrow has five or more receptions and is averaging 12.8 yards-per-catch. The key to this play will be the matchup as Chris Harris Jr, who is one of the best slot corners in football is coming back from a shoulder injury. If Renfrow has to deal with Harris for most of the game this week, it could make for a tough night. However, if Harris is out, Renfrow is an outstanding play particularly as the Raiders could struggle to throw deep.
Foster Moreau-Flex Only
If you want a cheap player, Moreau maybe your guy this week. He is the only player sub-$2k that has seen consistency in the target share as he has 5 targets over his last two games. If he could somehow find the end-zone, you’re in a fantastic position heading into this week.
Darren Waller- Probably a Fade?
Darren Waller is a bit of a mystery as the Raiders have severely backed off using him since his Week 1 performance where he had 19 targets. Over his last two games, Waller has a combined total of just 14 targets. While he still possesses the upside to have a huge game, the problem is the price. At $9,200 it really limits you from getting a player with more upside in Mike Williams, or a more consistent player in Keenan Allen.
Other Targets-
Josh Jacobs- Fade due to health/price
Peyton Barber- Fade due to price and split carry situation with Jacobs
Kenyan Drake- Fade due to ineffectiveness averaging just 2.1 yards-per-carry on the season.
Chargers Overview
Quarterback
Justin Herbert Great Captain/Flex
Not much to say about Justin Herbert here other than he’s a dark horse MVP candidate at this point in his second season. Herbert is averaging 319 yards passing, and has created a second go-to receiver in Mike Williams to make this a very dangerous offense. Even with Austin Ekeler this is a pass-first team that is going to rely on the arm of Herbert in most situations. The Raiders thus far this season have been in the middle of the pack when it comes to pass defense, but they’ve faced some weak competition in terms of passing stats with Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jacoby Brissett.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler- Great Flex Play, fade as captain
This one is interesting this week as Austin Ekeler remains a top running back as he has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games. The issue for Ekeler is whether he has enough upside to be a captain play or if he is better served as a flex play. It’s been two full years since Ekeler has scored two touchdowns in a game and has just 5 touchdowns over his last 15 games. That’s not good enough for a top-end running back to be a captain. He’s incredibly consistent and reliable for that 15-17 point game, but with DraftKings 100-yard bonus it makes it challenging when his yards are so split to hit that bonus.
Wide Receiver
Mike Williams- Good Captain Play- Hard to fit in as a flex, but if you can he’s a solid play
What to do with Mike Williams is the question this week that you’ll need to ask yourself. Through the first three games of the season, he has been unstoppable as he is averaging 98 yards per game with four touchdowns in those games. The big question you have to ask yourself is whether it will continue, as we expect Williams to be somewhat popular this week. Williams does have somewhat of a difficult matchup this week going up against Casey Hayward. Hayward spent 5 years with the Chargers, and should know all of Williams’ tricks this week.
Keenan Allen- Good Captain and Flex Play
Keenan Allen is an interesting player this week. Facing off against slot corner Nate Hobbs who in his rookie season has struggled thus far as he allowed 105 to Diontae Johnson on 9 receptions, and allowed Jaylen Waddle to have 12 receptions albeit for only 48 yards. Allen is the best slot receiver in the league, and should be a very difficult matchup for the 5th-round rookie. Allen is not normally the best Captain play as his consistency drives his price up, but the upside is sometimes not there. This week he has both an excellent upside and a floor against the rookie.
Other Targets-
Larry Rountree- Fine low end flex play who if he finds the end zone pays off.
Jared Cook- Great flex play this week, does not have a touchdown yet this season, but it’s coming
Chargers Defense- Joey Bosa return to health should greatly improve this defense
Jalen Guyton- Great value play, the snap counts have been there, but the production simply hasn’t been. That should normalize throughout the season as it did last year where he had a few games where he saw 4+ targets.
