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Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 7

The Top 5 Plays for Week 7 on Monkey Knife Fight

By Dan Hindery
October 21, 2021
Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 7
Photo: Sam Navarro, USA Today Sports
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Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

Week 6 Review

  • Last Week: +2
  • Season Total: (-3)

We had another strong week and it could have been even better. In fact, one more reception for both Davante Adams and JaMarr Chase would have put us on a +8 week.

  • 5, Thursday Night Shot: (-1) We swung for the fences and came up short. This was our only bad pick of the week based upon how the games played out. In particular, we were way off on the amount of success Jalen Hurts would have against this Buccaneers defense.
  • 4, Under in NYC: (+2) Stafford came in over 50 yards below his passing prop (he threw for 251) with the game script playing out as predicted and the Rams able to take their foot off of the gas in the first half. Daniel Jones (242 passing yards) also came in under.
  • 3, Betting on Youth: (-1) We crushed one half of this by taking Khalil Herbert to rush for more than 35.5 rushing yards (he had 97) but came up just short of the 99.5 yards needed on the other side with Davante Adams (89 receiving yards).
  • 2, Young Stars: (-1) We got 17.3 fantasy points from D’Andre Swift, more than we needed but JaMarr Chase (4-97-0) came up just short of the 16.5 points we needed to hit both sides of this prop.
  • 1, Bills-Titans Superstars: (+3) As last week’s article mentioned, whenever you have a 4X chance on 2.5+ touchdowns and one of the options is Derrick Henry, you have to take it. He got us there by himself with three. Stefon Diggs gave us a fourth touchdown from our trio.

5: TNF Health Questions

Javonte Williams MORE than 48.5 rushing yards
Odell Beckham LESS than 55.5 receiving yards

  • The key to this prop is that we are getting almost a free roll on the scenario in which Beckham suits up and barely plays. Now if he scratches completely, our play would be canceled, which seems like a real possibility as I type this on Thursday morning. However, if he gives it a go and has to leave the game early or is just used as a decoy, we are halfway to a 3X without a ton of risk.
  • The reason the Beckham less side makes so much sense is that even without the injury, he still feels like he would be a bad bet to hit the over on 55.5 receiving yards. Beckham has been a shell of himself. He has gone over 30 receiving yards just twice this season.
  • On the other side, Javonte Williams is the type of player we want to be backing as often as possible. Talent finds a way and Williams looks like one of the more talented young backs in the league. The carries and usage are going to come.
  • Even if we cannot safely project 12-plus carries for Williams every week, he has proven to be the type of player who can get there on less. He has topped 48 rushing yards each of the last three weeks on 7, 8, and 11 carries.

4: Concentrated TD Projections

Over 2.5 touchdowns combined (4X) from Alvin Kamara, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett

  • We have had some luck on picking these 4X props with touchdowns in recent weeks and will go back to the well again here. The recent success here has been built upon targeting spots where a running back projects for an especially strong chance at scoring multiple touchdowns.
  • Like Derrick Henry (who scored three touchdowns) was the key to hitting last week, Kamara is the key play this week. One way to view this prop is through the lens of Kamara’s chances of having a multiple touchdown game. If he scores a pair, then we should feel great about one of the Seahawks wide receivers getting into the end zone to put us over 2.5 total.
  • Since Kamara burst onto the scene midway through his rookie season way back in Week 6 of 2017, he has averaged 1.03 touchdowns per game with a standard deviation of 1.17. Based upon his past history, we should expect him to score two or more touchdowns in just over half (51%) of his games. Being able to roster a player with that level of realistic, proven touchdown upside is a great foundation for building a winning proposition.
  • The matchup and likely game script for Kamara do not hurt either. The Seahawks are allowing the third-most points to opposing running backs. New Orleans is a 4.5-point road favorite facing a Seahawks team playing on a relatively short week after a demoralizing loss.
  • Things are a bit more difficult to project with confidence on the Seattle side given Russell Wilson’s absence. However, the game script sets up to where there is a good chance Seattle will be playing from behind. Given all of their injuries at running back and the Saints stout rush defense (2nd in the NFL according to DVOA), this is a spot where the Seahawks likely need to lean heavily on their two best healthy offensive playmakers — Lockett and Metcalf — to make some plays.
  • Add it all up and this feels closer to a +200 prop and we are getting +300, which makes it a nice upside play for those willing to chase the 4X.

3: WR Value

Calvin Ridley MORE than 15.5 fantasy points
Jaylen Waddle MORE than 12.5 fantasy points

  • Let’s start with the fact that this is a strong correlation play. The two former Alabama stars are squaring off against each other and if the game has more fireworks than expected, both should exceed expectations. This game profiles well in terms of passing upside for both teams.
  • While the positive correlation is always appreciated and worth factoring in, the real attraction here is the value. Footballguys consensus projects Ridley for 16.1 fantasy points (+0.6 line value) and Waddle for 14.1 (+1.6 line value). As we get deeper into the season, the sharp projections and player props tend to converge.
  • The main reason both players project so well is expected volume.
  • Over his last three games, Ridley has three straight games with 10-plus targets and is averaging 10.5 per game on the season. He has a career yard per target average of 9.0. It is only a matter of time until he has a big yardage game as long as he keeps seeing 10-or-more targets.
  • While Waddle’s targets per game have been less consistent, he does have a pair of 13 target games over the last month. He may have seen his breakout game last week when he caught 10 passes for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns. There is no reason for Miami to put the genie back in the bottle. Miami gave up an early pick in the 2021 draft and what is likely to be an early pick in the 2022 draft to move back up to select Waddle. As people in the organization begin to angle to save their jobs, making that massive investment in Waddle look smart may become a priority. For many reasons, it makes sense for the Dolphins to continue to feature Waddle heavily and these 10-plus target games could become the norm the rest of the season.
  • We have two of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. Atlanta ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and Miami ranks 23rd. The Miami number may not even tell the whole story as this secondary has been especially vulnerable in recent weeks with Xavien Howard banged up.

2: Fields' breakout game coming?

Tom Brady MORE than 309.5 passing yards
Justin Fields MORE than 199.5 passing yards

  • We took an L on a similar prop to this last week when Brady came in just under 300 yards and Jalen Hurts bombed (as a passer) last Thursday night. However, we like the shot to 3X on a strong correlation play here and will continue to take shots on the Tampa Bay passing game all season.
  • It is easy to keep doubling down on this Tampa Bay passing offense. Matt Waldman, amongst others, was very bullish on this Buccaneers passing offense and made comparisons to Peyton Manning’s record-breaking late-career season with the Broncos. That narrative just clicked for me and in my two biggest season-long drafts, I went with heavy Tampa Bay passing stacks. This is an offense worth believing in and backing every week.
  • On the season, Tampa Bay is averaging 340.7 passing yards per game and allowing 280.8 passing yards. Teams have had very little success running against the Buccaneers on the ground (54.8 rushing yards per game) and are forced into pass-heavy game plans to try to keep up with Brady and all of his receiving stars.
  • Does it seem like Tom Brady holds a grudge against the Bears for not pursuing him more aggressively in free agency? There have been some hints in recent months that he does. Sometimes narratives do matter and spiteful Brady could look to really pour it on this week if he can to share the Bears what they might have had.
  • For these overs to hit, we need a better performance from Justin Fields. He simply has not been playing well enough to get the job done. We are taking the risk (in a spot we are getting a 3X opportunity) that this is the week things finally start to click with the Bears passing game.

1: Narrative Street

Matthew Stafford MORE than 290.5 passing yards
Jared Goff MORE than 260.5 passing yards

  • Is there any doubt that both Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff have had this game circled on their calendars for months?
  • Goff returns to Los Angeles, where he played for five seasons before being cast aside by Sean McVay and the Rams. He has to enter this game with a chip on his shoulder and will be extra motivated to have a good showing. Motivation and the capability to execute are not the same thing. While it is certainly no guarantee that Goff and his ragtag group of pass-catchers will have any success in a difficult matchup, this feels like one of those “nobody believes in us” spots where the Lions can put in a better showing than expected and put some points on the board.
  • Even if the game is not competitive for four quarters, Goff still has plenty of avenues to throw for 261-plus passing yards. We saw in Week 1 when San Francisco jumped out to a big lead, Goff threw for 338 yards against second-half prevent defense and had a solid day statistically.
  • On the other side, this is just a talent mismatch with Stafford and the Rams passing offense having matchup advantages at virtually every position. Stafford has already had three games with 320-plus passing yards this season.
  • We were on the under for Stafford last week because of a predicted blowout. Why the opposite side this week? It just feels like a spot where McVay and Stafford are going to try to keep the peddle down even if they do jump out to a big lead. Buy the narrative here.
Tags:Daily FF
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