Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.

Week 13 Review

• Last Week: -1
• Season Total: -1

We went 1-of-3 on touchdown props, which was good for +1 unit with the 4X. These continue to be our most positive EV props.

Week 13 Picks

• 5: Bengals-Chargers TD (-1): We got close. Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler scored, but JaMarr Chase dropped what likely would have been a long touchdown, leaving us 0.5 touchdowns short.
• 4: Betting on Backups: (-1) We only got one touchdown from our backups (via Alexander Mattison) but the Adam Thielen injury made this an uphill battle.
• 3: Low-Flying NFC West: (-1) We only hit half of this one. Jimmy Garoppolo hit the over via a big fourth quarter.
• 2: Chicago-Arizona TDs: (+3) We got our three combined touchdowns from James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, and David Montgomery before halftime.
• 1: Surprisingly fun in Washington (-1) This game was not in fact much fun.

5: Steelers-Vikings TDs

Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, and Najee Harris combined for MORE than 2.5 touchdowns (4X)

• Note: There is uncertainty surrounding Dalvin Cook’s status for tonight. We do not have to lock our choices here in until right before kickoff, so pay attention to late-breaking news. If Cook is out or reported to be limited, use Mattison. If reporting indicates Cook is likely to receive his normal workload, use him over Mattison. If the Vikings backfield situation is unclear, we can transition from the Vikings backs to Diontae Johnson.

Alexander Mattison goes from a smash top-5 RB play to an iffy start if Davin Cook plays. This is the worst-case situation for Mattison and Cook managers.

Hopefully we get some more clarity before kickoff. https://t.co/2IBBjB95FX

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) December 9, 2021

• This is a great spot to swing for the fences with a 4X touchdown prop because the touchdown projections are very concentrated for both teams.
• For the Steelers, Najee Harris played 97% of the snaps last week. He is the safest projection in the NFL to handle all of the red zone work.
• Harris has had 25-plus touches in six of his last eight games.
• With Adam Thielen out, the Vikings are going to lean on Justin Jefferson even more heavily than normal. With Thielen going down early against the Lions last week, Jefferson had his most prolific games of the season with 11 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown.

Justin Jefferson has 577 receiving yards in his last 4 games, the most in a 4-game span in a season in Vikings history. He needs 70 yards Thursday to break his own team record for most receiving yards in a 5-game span within a single season (646 in 2021, Wks 9-13). @ESPNStatsInfo

— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) December 8, 2021

• If the Vikings running back forecast is cloudy, we can transition to Diontae Johnson as the third member of our prop. Like Jefferson, he projects for a huge share of his team’s targets. Over the last four weeks, Johnson has 51 targets (12.8 per game).

4: Bucs-Bills TDs

Leonard Fournette, Stefon Diggs, and Rob Gronkowski more than 2.5 touchdowns (4X)

• With a game total of 53.5 points, this is a great game to target for touchdowns.
• Leonard Fournette has slowly but surely emerged as one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. He played over 80% of the snaps each of the past two weeks and has been the focal point of the Tampa Bay offense in both games.
• Fournette has worked his way into a huge receiving role Over the past four weeks, he is averaging 7.0 receptions per game and has caught touchdowns in back-to-back games.

Leonard Fournette now leads all running backs in receptions (58) on the season and is second in the league in red zone opportunities (51), opportunities inside of the 10 (27) and inside of the 5 (13).

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 6, 2021

• Overall, Fournette has scored nine times in the last eight games (1.1 per game).
• Opposing offenses have run all over the Bills in recent weeks. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 11. Last week, the Patriots rushed for 222 yards and a touchdown despite not even attempting to keep the defense honest with the passing game.

Let's take a step back and appreciate what Rob Gronkowski is doing right now.

He was already a Hall of Famer when he walked away. Yet after all the injuries, and after a year away, the most dominant TE ever is back out here beasting people. https://t.co/VsfzAFyUog

— Robert Mays (@robertmays) December 8, 2021

• Rob Gronkowski has played 80% or more of the snaps two weeks in a row.
• In the four games Gronkowski played 80% of the snaps this season, he scored multiple touchdowns three times (75%).
• Stefon Diggs has scored a touchdown in 5-of-7 games.

If the Bills truly believe Stefon Diggs is a superstar receiver (they better), then they need to take a long look at how the other superstar receivers (Adams, Hopkins, Hill, Jefferson, etc.) are used by their teams.

Study it. Duplicate it. Benefit from it.

— Kyle Nap (@KyleNaps) December 7, 2021

• The Bills are the most pass-happy team in the NFL and most teams are forced into extremely pass-heavy game plans against this Buccaneers defense. We should see almost 50 attempts from Josh Allen this week. The game environment sets up perfectly for Diggs to see double-digit targets for the first time since Week 10.

3: Windy in KC?

Patrick Mahomes II LESS than 275.5 passing yards
Derek Carr LESS than 267.5 passing yards

• Not only are we getting a strong correlation play and generally solid value on the under, but we also get some hidden value due to potentially inclement weather.
• Winds of 15-20 miles per hour are projected for Kansas City on Sunday.
• This has been a high scoring matchup of late. Each of the last three meetings had game totals of at least 53.5 points and each went over. Despite that, this game total sits at just 48 points and may fall further.
• The Raiders offense is not the same without Darren Waller. He is questionable for Week 14 and even if he is able to suit up, is unlikely to be full strength.

Raiders TE Darren Waller was a DNP Wednesday and remains day to day with knee and back injurieshttps://t.co/VyVG4RbUuv pic.twitter.com/3WzYApKMGG

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 8, 2021

• In his last four home starts, Patrick Mahomes II has averaged 221.3 passing yards per game. He has been a mere mortal this season.
• Since Week 5 Mahomes has thrown for more than 275.5 passing yards just twice. He has gone under 275.5 passing yards in 6-of-8 games.

2: Reading the room for Rams

Darrell Henderson LESS than 70.5 rushing yards
James Conner MORE than 55.5 rushing yards

• The under on 70.5 rushing yards for Darrell Henderson is my single favorite prop for Week 14. My read on this running back room is that Sony Michel is now the RB1 and Henderson is going to be relegated to a backup role.

Sony Michel looking likely to be the guy again. https://t.co/f66P201nUQ

— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) December 9, 2021

• It takes some reading between the lines but Sean McVay’s comments both this week and last lead to a belief that he likes the offense more with Michel as the lead back.

Sean McVay on if he sees Sony Michel assuming lead back role, regardless of Darrell Henderson's health: "I think it's really good to get Sony going. I think he's a rhythm runner, but I think we definitely would want to find ways to still have Darrell as a big part of it."

— Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) December 7, 2021

• Footballguys consensus projections for Henderson are 11 carries for 53 yards, which means we are getting a lot of value on this under. Personally, give the under even on 53 yards. I have Henderson projected for just under 35 rushing yards.
• On the other side, the Cardinals had success running against the Rams in their previous meeting. Arizona ran 40 times for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• With Chase Edmonds likely to miss another week, James Conner again projects for a true workhorse role. He has rarely left the field and has become a go-to performer in the Arizona offense.

Unstoppable force. Immovable object.@JamesConner_ x #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/iBztlA93yH

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 9, 2021

1: Rams-Cardinals TDs

James Conner, Cooper Kupp, and Sony Michel combined for MORE than 2.5 touchdowns (4X)

• James Conner has been a staple of our 2.5 touchdown prop recommendations. He has been a touchdown machine since moving into a lead role. Since Week 3, Conner has scored 14 touchdowns.
• Over the last 10 games, Conner has scored 1.4 touchdowns per game. He has scored at least once in 90% of those outings and managed multiple scores in 40%.
• What is left to say about Cooper Kupp this season? He is the clear top wide receiver in the league. In fact, Kupp leads the NFL in every major receiving stat with 100 catches for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns.

.@criscarter80 can't believe Cooper Kupp continues to put up monster numbers with all the defensive attention 🤯 pic.twitter.com/7KcRrq4fWp

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 8, 2021

• Kupp has two-plus touchdowns in 33% of his games this season. He is one of the few wide receivers in the league with a realistic chance of getting us close to the 2.5 touchdowns needed all on his own.
• We are doubling down on our take on the Rams running back situation.

Sean McVay isn’t committing to Sony Michel as the workhorse and still wants to keep Darrell Henderson Jr. involved. https://t.co/0LFMklEEA7

— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) December 8, 2021

• Footballguys consensus projections have Henderson at .61 total touchdowns and Sony Michel at .53 touchdowns. The backfield projection of 1.14 touchdowns is solid but the split should lean more towards Michel. He is the better short-yardage runner and I am projecting him to get nearly all of the red zone work. If the read here is correct, then Michel projects for closer to 0.9 touchdowns.

Hard not to think that the key to this game against the Cardinals will come in run game. Arizona could be without Chase Edmonds who had 120 yards on 12 carries in Week 4.

Sony Michel is coming off the first 100 yard performance for a Rams RB this season.

— DOWNTOWN RAMS [DTR] (@DowntownRams) December 8, 2021