Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.

Week 15 Review

Last Week: -1.4

Season Total: +4.6

One more yard from Dalvin Cook and we would have had a winning week. The two games we targeted for touchdown props were both lower scoring than expected, especially the Tampa Bay-New Orleans matchup.

Week 15 Picks

5: Wily Vets on Thursday Night (+2.6):

Keenan Allen MORE than 75.5 receiving yards

Travis Kelce MORE than 65.5 receiving yards

Allen barely hit the over (78 yards) and Kelce completely smashed. We get the advantage of the Thursday night booster too (+2.6 units instead of the normal 2.0).

4: Low Bar in Pittsburgh: (-1)

Ben Roethlisberger MORE than 240.5 passing yards

Ryan Tannehill MORE than 219.5 passing yards

We got the correlation we were looking for but it went int he opposite direction with both quarterbacks going way under their totals. Our path to success was the Steelers selling out to stop the run and forcing the Titans to pass. Tennessee rans for 201 yards.

3: TB-NO TDs: (-1)

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns between Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Godwin

This one was a disaster. It is hard to hit an over on 2.5 touchdowns when there are zero touchdowns scored in the game. We also lost two of our three picks to injuries.

2: Rushing Value in Chicago: (-1)

Dalvin Cook MORE than 89.5 rushing yards

David Montgomery MORE than 59.5 rushing yards

We missed this one by one yard. Cook had 89 rushing yards despite getting the workload we expected (28 carries). Montgomery just barely got there (60 yards). The props were dead on here.

1: Bears-Vikings TDs (-1)

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and David Montgomery

This ended up being a lower-scoring game than expected and we had some random touchdown scorers too boot (Jesper Horsted and Ihmir Smith-Marsette). Only Justin Jefferson found the end one.

5: Thursday Night Boost

Brandon Aiyuk LESS than 12.5 fantasy points

DOnta Foreman MORE than 10.5 fantasy points

• We like to take advantage of the boosted odds on Thursday night props (3.6X versus the normal 3X). We get a small correlation play here. The Titans would love to slow this game down and grind it out on the ground. If they do so, it will mean less plays for the opposing offense and less passing attempts for Jimmy Garoppolo.
• Over the last three weeks, Foreman has averaged 19.3 touches per game. His modest involvement in the passing game has ticked up each week and he saw three targets in Week 15 (two catches for 27 yards).

D’Onta Foreman had 24 touches on just 39% of the snaps yesterday

He’s averaging 19.7 touches on 40% of the snaps in his last three games

When he’s on the field, he’s going to get the football — a relatively favorable matchup against the 49ers on Thursday night awaits

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 20, 2021

• We are getting solid value on Foreman’s over based upon the Footballguys consensus projectionswhere Foreman projects for 12.6 fantasy points.
• We are also getting some value on the under side for Aiyuk, who is projected for 11.1 fantasy points.
• While the matchup is solid for Aiyuk, he has had a slightly less role in the offense in recent weeks. Over his last four games, he is averaging 5.8 targets. George Kittle has emerged as the dominant force in the 49ers passing offense and Deebo Samuel is still getting plenty of designed touches.

4: Brady Bounceback

Tom Brady (-3.5) and Antonio Brown (-0.5) MORE fantasy points than Cam Newton and Ronald Jones II, respectively.

• This is a correlation play where we are betting on the Tampa Bay passing game duo of Tom Brady and Antonio Brown. If Brady has a big day, it is much more likely that Brown does as well given the lack of other healthy options for Brady.
• There is a bit of a narrative element to this choice, as well. Brady was embarrassed in prime time against the Saints last week. The Buccaneers had scored at least 19 points in every game heading into the Saints matchup but were shutout.
• Antonio Brown is returning from an injury absence that was extended due to his forging a COVID vaccination card. The suspension is noteworthy in terms of the timeline regarding the ankle injury. Brown was likely to return at least two or three weeks ago but for the suspension. He has had extra time to get his ankle right and should be back at full health.

REPORT: @Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown looks like how he did before the ankle injury per Bruce Arians pic.twitter.com/rd8NEvq0JQ

— The Fantasy Source 🔮🏈 (@FantasySource_) December 22, 2021

• This is a smash spot for Brown, who was putting up great numbers even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the lineup. With Godwin out and Evans questionable with a hamstring injury, Brown is going to get a ton of targets. The last time Brown played and one of Tampa’s top two wide receivers was out, he saw 14 targets. We should see him get double-digit targets again this week.

There's a ton of buzz about Ronald Jones II and Antonio Brown heading into Week 16, but how confident can you be starting them?

I let you know in this quick video. Subscribe to the YouTube page for more great content from @Footballguys!https://t.co/zKOJ2HDcJ1 pic.twitter.com/MF1SOgSne9

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) December 22, 2021

• Ronald Jones II should step into a nearly full-time role but may not pick up all of the passing-game work from Fournette. In fact, after Fournette’s injury last week, Jones played just 25% of the passing down snaps (with Ke’Shawn Vaughn playing the other 75%). Tampa Bay also added LeVeon Bell to the mix.
• Regardless, this is not a spot where we should expect Jones to add much value as a pass catcher. The Panthers have allowed only 48 catches to opposing backs this season, least in the league by a good margin (next fewest is 58). Carolina also has allowed the fewest receiving yards (313) and touchdowns (1) to opposing backs. In a full PPR format, it is going to be much harder for Jones to have a huge fantasy day than it will be for Brown to do so.
• We saved the best for last. The top aspect of this prop is that we are getting to go against Newton with what is basically a full-time starting projection. We do not have to face Newton in a full-time role, however. By all accounts, Sam Darnold is going to play as well. It is hard to see Newton keeping pace with Brady while rotating with Darnold.

More on the Panthers plans to start Cam Newton, and also play Sam Darnold Sunday against the Buccaneers. https://t.co/JTasd1r0qr

— Darin Gantt (@daringantt) December 22, 2021

3: Rams-Vikings TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Cooper Kupp, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson

EDIT: Sub Alexander Mattison for Cook. The news of Cook being out due to COVID came out one hour after the article was written. It is going to be that kind of week.

• Footballguys consensus projections for this trio is 2.21 touchdowns. Kupp projects second-best amongst all players in Week 16 with 0.87 touchdowns. Cook is 11th-best with 0.73. Jefferson projects for 0.61 touchdowns, though that may be conservative if Adam Thielen is unable to play.
• During the 2020 season, there were 42 games in which the Footballguys consensus projection for the top three players (with at least one from each team) was for 2.2 total touchdowns or more. 40.5% of those games, the three players combined for more than 2.5 touchdowns. Our break-even rate on this 4X prop is only 25%.
• Jefferson has had a massive marketshare 45% and 38% the past two weeks with Thielen out. If Thielen is out or active but less than 100% healthy, Jefferson should again be peppered with targets, especially if the Vikings fall behind early.
• Some will be scared off of Jefferson this week due to the presence of Jalen Ramsey. However, Ramsey has not been shadowing the top opposing wide receiver and the Rams have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WR1s. This matchup is just fine for Jefferson.
• We are getting two of the three wide receivers who had the highest target share last week in the same matchup.

Highest target share in Week 15:

Michael Pittman Jr - 42%
Cooper Kupp - 39%
Justin Jefferson - 38%

Buy Low & Sell High Targets Based on High-Value Opportunitieshttps://t.co/Ggq1a4Xfs5

— PFF (@PFF) December 22, 2021

• There is not much more to be said about Kupp who is on pace for the best fantasy season at the wide receiver position in the history of the NFL. We want to ride the hot hand here.

Cooper Kupp is on pace for 1,973 receiving yards this season

That would break Calvin Johnson's single-season NFL record of 1,964 yards 😳 pic.twitter.com/cYl1JwlqJ5

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 22, 2021

• Kupp is averaging 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game, which does not feel fluky at all considering he has 122 receptions and 1, 625 receiving yards.
• Cook had 30 touches last week and 28 touches the week before. We can safely project a massive workload for Cook.
• Cook has 36 touchdowns in 39 games played over the past three seasons. He is a player we always feel good about including in our touchdowns props.

2: Packers-Browns TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, and Davante Adams

• Footballguys consensus projections for this trio is 2.31 touchdowns. Jones projects third-best on the slate with 0.82 touchdowns. Chubb is sixth-best with 0.79. Adams projects for 0.7, which is a fantastic projection for the third-wheel in one of these props.
• As noted above, during the 2020 season, there were 42 games in which the Footballguys consensus projection for the top three players (with at least one from each team) was for 2.2 total touchdowns or more. 40.5% of those games, the three players combined for more than 2.5 touchdowns. Our break-even rate on this 4X prop is only 25%.
• This is a spot where projected touchdowns are highly concentrated amongst four players, Jones, Chubb, Adams, and AJ Dillon. We know who the go-to red zone options are for these two teams.
• The biggest decision point here is Jones vs. Dillon. The two have been splitting touches evenly since Jones returned from injury but the lean is towards Jones who is playing slightly more snaps and has a longer track record of success.

Packers RB last two weeks:

* Aaron Jones 68 snaps, 29 routes, 23 touches

* AJ Dillon 58 snaps, 23 routes, 23 touches

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 20, 2021

• Over his last 43 games, Jones has scored 40 touchdowns.
• Adams has been just as prolific a touchdown scorer over the past two seasons. He has 26 touchdowns in 27 games.
• Chubb has scored 20 touchdowns in 23 games over the past two seasons.
• In short, we are getting three players who have each averaged just under 1.0 touchdowns per game over a large sample size of games. This is close to a 50-50 proposition whether the trio will score more than 2.5 combined touchdowns yet we are getting 4-to-1 odds.

1: Colts-Cardinals TDs

MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Christian Kirk

Note: Wait to lock this in until closer to kickoff. We can swap Conner for Chase Edmonds if we get news Conner’s heel injury is going to limit his usage too much. If the news about his playing time expectations is mixed, we can hedge our bets by playing both Conner and Edmonds.

• The Footballguys consensus projection is 2.39 touchdowns from this trio. Taylor projects for a slate-high 1.16 touchdowns. Conner projects for 0.79 and Ertz projects for 0.44.
• As noted above, during the 2020 season, there were 42 games in which the Footballguys consensus projection for the top three players (with at least one from each team) was for 2.2 total touchdowns or more. 40.5% of those games, the three players combined for more than 2.5 touchdowns. Our break-even rate on this 4X prop is only 25%.
• For the rest of the 2021 season, we are likely to feature any 4X touchdown prop that includes Jonathan Taylor.

Colts coach Frank Reich not concerned with RB Jonathan Taylor's heavy workload: "At this point, he’s showing no wear and tear"https://t.co/PwFjvPXWSW pic.twitter.com/6pN2B1PGXc

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) December 23, 2021

• Taylor played more than 55% of the snaps for the first time in Week 6. Since moving into that featured role, he has scored 16 touchdowns in 9 games. That is good for 1.8 touchdowns per game.
• The Arizona run defense has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks. Last week, it was Craig Reynolds who gashed them for 112 rushing yards. Sony Michel (79 rushing yards) and David Montgomery (90 yards) also found some success. Taylor is on a whole different level than those two.
• While Taylor has been the league’s most prolific touchdown scorer, James Conner has been a close second and a touchdown machine in his own right. Conner has scored 16 touchdowns in his last 12 games (1.3 per game).
• Taylor (27) and Conner (14) rank first and second in the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five yard line.
• Taylor (10) and Conner (9) lead the league in rushing touchdowns of five yards or less. No other running back has more than five.
• The tricky part of this prop (assuming James Conner is not out with his heel injury) is deciding who to add as the third member. We are relying primarily on Conner and Taylor (who are averaging more than 3.0 touchdowns between the two of them over the past two months) but also get some added upside with a third player. Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Zach Ertz, and Chase Edmonds are the top considerations. Do not lock this in until as close to game time as possible. For now, the lean is Kirk but pay attention to late-breaking news and be ready to pivot to one of the other three top options. Edmonds becomes a strong play if we get an indication Conner's role will be more limited.