Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 15 Review
Last Week: -1.4
Season Total: +4.6
One more yard from Dalvin Cook and we would have had a winning week. The two games we targeted for touchdown props were both lower scoring than expected, especially the Tampa Bay-New Orleans matchup.
Week 15 Picks
5: Wily Vets on Thursday Night (+2.6):
Keenan Allen MORE than 75.5 receiving yards
Travis Kelce MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
Allen barely hit the over (78 yards) and Kelce completely smashed. We get the advantage of the Thursday night booster too (+2.6 units instead of the normal 2.0).
4: Low Bar in Pittsburgh: (-1)
Ben Roethlisberger MORE than 240.5 passing yards
Ryan Tannehill MORE than 219.5 passing yards
We got the correlation we were looking for but it went int he opposite direction with both quarterbacks going way under their totals. Our path to success was the Steelers selling out to stop the run and forcing the Titans to pass. Tennessee rans for 201 yards.
3: TB-NO TDs: (-1)
MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns between Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Godwin
This one was a disaster. It is hard to hit an over on 2.5 touchdowns when there are zero touchdowns scored in the game. We also lost two of our three picks to injuries.
2: Rushing Value in Chicago: (-1)
Dalvin Cook MORE than 89.5 rushing yards
David Montgomery MORE than 59.5 rushing yards
We missed this one by one yard. Cook had 89 rushing yards despite getting the workload we expected (28 carries). Montgomery just barely got there (60 yards). The props were dead on here.
1: Bears-Vikings TDs (-1)
MORE than 2.5 combined touchdowns (4X) between Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and David Montgomery
This ended up being a lower-scoring game than expected and we had some random touchdown scorers too boot (Jesper Horsted and Ihmir Smith-Marsette). Only Justin Jefferson found the end one.
5: Thursday Night Boost
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
