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The case for Harris as a strong fantasy value at his current ADP has three main components:

1. Harris will be a workhorse. Footballguys projects Harris to be amongst the Top 5 workhorse backs in the NFL (defined here as a percentage of his team’s running-back fantasy points).

2. Fifth may be a conservative estimate. Given the Steelers' history of riding their lead backs, it is fair to expect Harris to actually exceed our usage projections if he stays healthy and lives up to his scouting report.

3. The Steelers' offensive concerns are already fully priced in. Understandably, some are down on Harris due to the Steelers offensive line issues and concerns about Ben Roethlisberger regressing further. However, these have been fully priced in and should not scare you from drafting Harris at or above his current ADP.

1. Harris projects for a Top 5 Workhorse Share

There are many ways to define what constitutes a “workhorse” running back. For fantasy purposes, it is easiest to look at the question through the lens of how many of the team’s fantasy points at the running back position are scored by the lead back. When looking at the Footballguys consensus projections to determine each back’s share of their team's fantasy points, Najee Harris stands out as a potentially elite performer.

The Top 10 above is a who's who of elite fantasy running backs. Joe Mixon and Najee Harris both stand out as potential values at current ADP, given how much we expect them to dominate the backfield touches for their respective teams.

2. Workload projections may end up being too low

Harris already ranks as a top-five running back in our projections. However, even that may be too low. His 74% projected share of Steelers running back fantasy points is probably a conservative estimate based upon recent history. Harris has a realistic shot to finish with an even bigger share of the touches and fantasy production given the team he plays for.

Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin has preferred to give their lead back a huge workload instead of taking a committee approach. In fact, since 2014, Pittsburgh’s top back has averaged 86.6% of the running back fantasy points (on a game-by-game basis). This leads the entire NFL over this stretch by a good margin.

As you can see in the graphic above, the Steelers have leaned heavily on a single-back approach. Even the last two seasons when the team was stuck with mediocre backs, the lead back still averaged 75% of the production.

Given that the Steelers drafted Najee Harris in the first round despite many other glaring team needs, it seems clear they view him as an elite talent and offensive cornerstone. It should not surprise anyone if he instantly steps into a role in which he sees 90% of the touches. For example, if you look back at the 2016 season to the 12 games LeVeon Bell played, he handled 336 of the 353 running back touches (95.2%). In the four games Bell missed, DeAngelo Williams took 103 of the 110 running back touches. One year after Bell saw 336 touches in 12 games, he led the NFL with 406 touches in 2017.

As many franchises move towards running back by committee, the Steelers have remained one of the few who still value having an elite back with the size and pass-catching ability to leave the field rarely.

3. Steelers offensive concerns are already priced in and should not scare you off of Najee Harris

With David DeCastro cut (and considering retirement), the Steelers' already questionable offensive line situation looks even worse on paper.

Commentary | For all of the yet-to-be answered questions that have emerged about DeCastro’s situation, they pale in comparison to a bigger one about the Steelers offensive line.https://t.co/j1KnITWLrm

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) June 25, 2021

We also saw some troubling signs last season that Ben Roethlisberger is in decline. His yards per attempt fell to a career-low (6.3). At age 39, Roethlisberger may lose some velocity on his throws.

However, all of these negatives are fully priced into the projections and draft ADP of Harris. The Footballguys consensus projections already place the Steelers in the Bottom 5 in running back fantasy points (along with the Bills, Texans, Jets, and Falcons). There is almost nowhere to go but up. Plus, some of the potential negatives surrounding the Steelers offense may benefit Harris. First, Pittsburgh is likely to be heavily invested in trying to establish the run. Second, if Roethlisberger is limited to throwing more short passes (like late-career Drew Brees and Philip Rivers), Harris could massively exceed expectations as a pass-catcher. His receiving ability should make him game script-proof. In fact, Harris may have his biggest fantasy days when the Steelers are forced to play from behind.

Diontae Johnson: Najee Harris' receiving skills can take pressure of Steelers' wide receivers #Steelers https://t.co/VdUYC3mWNL pic.twitter.com/JRyZFJSic6

— Blitzburgh✨ (@RenegadeBlitz) June 23, 2021

Footballguys Projections

Final Thoughts

Sometimes fantasy managers overthink things. We let recency bias cloud our judgement. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin -- and frankly long before his tenure -- have a proven blueprint of winning games through a combination of dominating defense and a balance offense. The team lost its balance after the Le'Veon Bell saga, but has committed to getting on track. Harris was a big piece of the solution, as was elevating Matt Canada to offensive coordinator. While there are risks, including Ben Roethlisberger's arm strength and a depleted offensive line, those risks are already full embedded in Harris' draft day price tag.