The New Reality No.166: Running Back Trading

Photo: Jake Roth, USA Today Sports

Three weeks does not a strong sample size make. However, over the next 2-4 weeks, consider if contending or not in a majority of your dynasty leagues. Here are ideal players and dynasty trade strategies heading into Week 4:

INJURY-AWAY RUNNING BACK ADD-ON

A dynasty trade strategy is adding on a lower level primary backup running back to an essentially complete deal. The 'one injury away' running back is the highest leverage player asset outside of quarterbacks (Superflex) and tight ends in leagues that start two. Seek out the low-level backups who have no (or little) stand-alone impact or value but would be the unquestioned starter with an injury in front of them. Also, the key is adding a player the other GM will not quibble with as a part of the trade. Here are a few examples:

• Jeremy McNichols
• Darrel Williams
• Damien Williams

ROOKIE PICK ADD-ON

A similar strategy to adding on a primary backup running back to an existing deal is shifting to rookie picks. There is a myriad of ways to include picks in a near-final trade including (examples):

• Straight rookie pick request: Adding a future third or fourth-round pick to the deal
• Rookie pick round upgrade: Including your fourth-round pick for their third (or third to second upgrade)
• Upgrade within the round: If there is clarity on where in the round the picks project, move up from later to earlier
• Upgrade with a future year: Move a fourth in Y+1 for a third in Y+2 as an example

THE REDIRECT

When a dynasty trade is received there are multiple potential paths to venture down with a counter offer. A GM can be selling a particular asset, buying a particular asset, or targeting a specific position as general examples. Even if a GM does not like the specific offer sent, counter-offers including the same buying or selling asset use the information to create acceptable deals. So if an example offer sent is Running Back X for Running Back Y and a future pick there are three typical counter-offer ideas:

• First, send an offer for Running Back X including Running Back Y, but a lesser pick or different asset included.
• Second, send an offer for Running Back X without using Running Back Y.
• Third, send an offer giving Running Back Y but without Running Back X.

Regardless of which of the above you choose, this alerts the other GM on the difference in cost of the assets and promotes the continuation of negotiation. A straight declination halts a potential trade without any information on what your buy-sell lines are for assets and players.

RUNNING BACKS

James Robinson

Robinson is a top-20 running back through three weeks and for the second straight season enjoys a depth chart sans a high-pedigree option - Leonard Fournette in 2020 and Travis Etienne in 2021. The good news about this year is Robinson's dynasty cost is less than a year ago, yet a similar situation - a year-long window as the clear lead back with a murky upcoming offseason. Robinson has run double the routes of Carlos Hyde, collected more than triple the target share, and has been the decisive leading rusher since Week 1. The lone concern with Robinson is Jacksonville's lack of red zone opportunities to date, where Robinson is outside the top-30 in red zone rushing attempts.

Ideal trade constructions based on recent executed deals involving Robinson:

• Robinson for Larry Rountree III, 22 2nd
• Robinson for 22 2nd, 3rd
• Robinson for Darnell Mooney

Najee Harris

Currently a top-10 PPR back by way of an ugly Steelers offense and passing game. The offensive line has stunk and Harris has yet to log a rushing touchdown and is barely averaging 3.0 yards per rush. The appeal with Harris is his NFL-leading targets and receptions from the running back position. Passing game usage is king when shooting for a top-12 running back and Harris has benefited greatly from Ben Roethlisberger's eroding arm strength and a withering Steelers offense (plus JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with injuries). While Harris is a rookie, he fits with contenders and building rosters alike. While some may be put off by the Steelers stink and the 'ugly' yards Harris is accruing, he fits the DNA for a sturdy dynasty asset as a big back who can move and catch, possessing Round 1 pedigree, and on his way to a Year 1 fantasy hit.

• Harris for Javonte Williams, Damien Harris, O.J. Howard
• Harris for J.K. Dobbins, Jerry Jeudy
• Harris for Travis Etienne, Dyami Brown

Austin Ekeler

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL