Prop Talk Week 10

Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 10.

All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play

See something else you like? Send me a note on Twitter

Week 9 Recap 3-2

3-2 is never something to complain about, but frustrating as we should have been 4-1 as Baker Mayfield should have easily had over 232.5, but Cincinnati had the ball for nearly the entire first quarter due to a 101 yard Browns pick 6 last week. The game script got us in that one.

Baker Mayfield Over 232.5 Passing Yards- Loss
Mac Jones Under 233.5 Passing Yards- Win
A.J. Dillon Over 37.5 Rushing Yards- Win
David Johnson Under 37.5 Rushing+Passing Yards- Win
Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions- Loss

Week 10 Plays

Dalvin Cook Over 91.5 Rushing Yards

Let me just preface this by saying this is probably a “rat-line”. For those of you who don’t know, a rat-line is a game in which seems far too good to be true. Dalvin Cook is coming off of a 110 yard performance last week against a very good Baltimore defense and this week gets the worst run defense in the NFL. The Chargers are allowing the most rushing yards to opposing running backs (130) this season, allowing the most rushing attempts, and the highest yards-per-carry. For context, they’re allowing 130 yards rushing to running backs, while the next closest team (New York Jets), is allowing just 120 yards. This is a team that has allowed 71 yards to Jordan Howard and 80 yards to Damien Harris over the last two weeks neither of which are even close to the caliber of Dalvin Cook. Cook should be in line for 18-20 carries this week, which should be enough to break 100 yards against this defense. Footballguys has Cook projected at 104 yards rushing this week.

Najee Harris Under 93.5 Rushing Yards

Najee Harris is a fantasy monster which has everyone overrating him a little bit in terms of his actual running abilities. On the season, Harris is averaging just 3.6 yards-per-carry and has topped 93.5 rushing yards just once this year. Complicating matters is that Harris was a late add to the injury report as he was limited with a foot injury. What’s concerning is that if the game script has the Steelers out in front early, do they continue to give Harris the volume that he has seen the past four weeks (averaging 23.8 carries), or does it dip down into the 16-18 range as we saw in the first four weeks of the year. The matchup is a good one, but it’s hard to trust Harris will top this number this week.

Matt Ryan Over 291.5 Passing Yards

With no Calvin Ridley, the Falcons passing game has thrown for 330 yards or more in 2 of their last 3 games against the Saints and Dolphins. This week, the Falcons take on a Dallas team that is allowing the 5^th-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks and has faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL since Week 3. Over the last six games, Dallas has faced Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones/Mike Glennon, Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Teddy Bridgewater. They have allowed more than 291.5 passing yards in five of their eight games. The Falcons are also 9 point underdogs in this game which should lead to many throwing opportunities for Ryan to be forced to throw the ball.

Ryan Tannehill Over 247.5 Passing Yards

We didn’t get to see the full Titans offense without Derrick Henry as the Titans got out early last week as two turnovers by Matthew Stafford gave the Titans easy touchdowns last week. The takeaway from last week was that the Titans are not going to be able to run the ball against the Saints as they averaged just 2.7 yards-per-carry against the Rams while the Saints have the best run defense in the NFL. While the Saints run defense is elite, their pass defense has shown significant cracks as they’re now allowing 289 passing yards per game. The Saints have allowed four quarterbacks to throw for 300+ yards this season and have allowed 247.5 passing yards in 6 of their 8 games this season.

Mark Ingram Under 85.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards

Everything points towards Mark Ingram having a big week this week as the Saints only other running back is Dwayne Washington who has a total of 64 carries over his last five seasons in the NFL. Ingram should be in line for a significant workload hence the 85.5 number this week. However, the number is simply too high. If we just look at Alvin Kamara’s workload the last four weeks, he is averaging 17 carries-per-game which is not enough for Ingram to get to 85.5 yards this week. The matchup is a difficult one as the Titans run defense is much improved this year and has turned into one of the better units in the NFL as they have allowed only one running back to top 70 yards this season.