Prop Talk Week 16

Below are some props that you should keep your eye on as you head into Week 16.

All props are coming from DraftKings Sportsbook lines and be sure to keep checking back throughout the weekend as props are added over the course of the 24 hours prior to the game. The number of props will largely depend on the recommended plays, but typically we stay around 5. We will not be forcing the number of props just to meet a number as if it is on here, it is deemed a good play

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Apologies for the delay this week, DraftKings has been very slow on getting some of their props out due to Covid related issues. This is going to go live around 6AM Sunday December 26^th.

Week 15 Recap

We bounced back a little bit last week going 3-2, but time is not on our side. Essentially have to have a 5-0 week here over the next 3 weeks. While we could increase the number of plays to more than 5, we are not advocating for chasing losses and trying to do this article responsibly. We will always do at least 5 plays on this article, but if there are more that we love, we will give it to you regardless of how the season record is going.

Trevor Lawrence Over 211.5- Loss
Aaron Rodgers Over 264.5- Win
Tom Brady Under 300.5- Win
Deebo Samuel Under 42.5 Receiving Yards- Loss
James Robinson Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts- Win

Week 16 Plays- 5 Plays this week

Devin Singletary Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

The Bills have consolidated their rushing attack into Devin Singletary as he has topped 80% of the snaps over the last two games including a 93% snap share last week which led to a 22 carry outburst. The way to beat the Patriots is on the ground as they boast one of the league’s best pass defenses, and Josh Allen has struggled against this defense throughout his career. New England has allowed three 100-yard running backs over the last three games, and the Bills ran the ball 19 times in their last meeting earlier this season. This number really should be higher as Footballguys has Singletary projected at 63 yards this week.

Alexander Mattison Over 67.5 Rushing Yards

Mattison will fill in for Dalvin Cook this week against the Rams. The drop off from Cook to Mattison has not been severe as in his three games this season, Mattison has topped 90 yards in all three games while having 22 or more carries in each of those games. The Rams have faced one of the weakest running back schedules in the NFL this season, but they have struggled at times this season allowing 108 yards to David Montgomery, 120 yards to Chase Edmonds, 91 yards to Eli Mitchell, and 69 yards to AJ Dillon. The Rams have issues at the linebacker position which should bode well for Mattison this week as Troy Reeder and Ernest Jones both have struggled at the position this season.

Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

This is the biggest disparity between Footballguys projections and DraftKings props as Footballguys has Sanders accumulating 75 yards in this game. Sanders has been dominant over the last two weeks as he has topped 120 yards in each of his last two games. Sanders torched Washington which previously had been one of the best rushing defense in the NFL. The Giants are allowing 109 yards rushing per game, while allowing 126 last week against the Cowboys last week, 135 against the Chargers two weeks ago, and 128 against Philadelphia three weeks ago which Sanders had 64 yards. The Giants have the worst linebacking group in the NFL as Tae Crowder and Benardrick McKinney are two of the worst run-stoppers this season.

Matthew Stafford Over 286.5 Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford over the second half of the season has been great as he has topped 286.5 yards in five of his last seven games with the only two games being a blowout loss to the 49ers and a weird game last week against the Seahawks in which both team struggled, but the Rams were ravaged with Covid related issues which somewhat excuses the offensive struggles that the team had during this game. This week, the Rams get to face the Vikings who are allowing 272 passing yards per game which is the third-most in the NFL this season. Over the last three weeks, the Vikings have allowed 285 yards to Justin Fields, 308 to Ben Roethlisberger, and 296 to Jared Goff. Matthew Stafford is significantly better than those three quarterbacks and should have tremendous upside this week.

Dak Prescott Under 280.5 Passing Yards

This number seems a little bit absurd. Dak has topped 280.5, just once in his last five games, and just two weeks ago threw for only 211 yards against this same Washington team. The only way to explain this is that the number is taking into effect that at home, Dak recently has been a much better quarterback than on the road as he threw for 375 yards against the Raiders, and 296 against the Falcons. However, on the season, he is only averaging 271 yards even with those big performances at home. Washington’s secondary has been much improved over the second half of the year, with the one exception being last week in a performance that was on a weird week with the Tuesday start due to Covid issues and missing a large number of players. Outside of that game, over the second half of the season they’ve held Dak to 211, Derek Carr to 249, Russell Wilson to 247, Cam Newton to 189, Tom Brady to 220, and Teddy Bridgewater to 214. This is a unit that should be able to hold the Cowboys in check like we saw earlier this season, and allow somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 yards this week.