Thursday Showdown Week 6

Photo: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

Of all of the slates that we have covered so far this year, the Buccaneers and Eagles might be the most difficult slate in that there are essentially no low-end players that you can consider taking. Even the players under $3,000 are tough to stomach this week as a vast majority of the Buccaneers offense roles through their top wide receivers, while Philadelphia mixes the ball around a little bit better

Captain Consideration:

1. Zach Ertz
2. Leonard Fournette
3. Jalen Hurts
4. Antonio Brown
5. Chris Godwin
6. Mike Evans
7. Tom Brady

Buccaneers Offense

Quarterback

Tom Brady- Great Flex, difficult to fit as captain

Starting Brady is an obvious play in any small slate format, but the question is whether to start him as a captain or as a flex play this week. As the most expensive player on the slate, in a week that is difficult to find savings, it is tough to justify Brady in the Captain position. Take last week for example, where Brady had 411 yards and 5 touchdowns which is about his ceiling in any game. Brady in that game had 40.7 DraftKings points. As good as that was, Antonio Brown had 34.4 DraftKings points, and could be had at a $6,300 price difference at the captain position. The matchup is a tough one for the Buccaneers as the Eagles rebuilt secondary so far has been solid, allowing just 195 yards passing per game. This is not a stat that has been propped up by weak competition as they have had to face the Cowboys and Chiefs already this season, holding both Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes II to under 300 yards.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette- Captain or Flex

Leonard Fournette will likely be the most popular play on this slate due to the combination of recent performance, price, and matchup. The price is extremely attractive at just $7,800 as a flex play this week, while the matchup could not be better as the Eagles have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opponents this season. The Eagles boast one of the worst linebacking groups in football as Eric Wilson and Alex Singleton both have struggled mightily this year.

Other Running Backs

There is not much to like at the other running back positions for the Buccaneers in this one. The only player who could be somewhat intriguing is Gio Bernard as if there is a chance that the Buccaneers fall behind early, he could be somewhat intriguing based on his nine reception game back in Week 3. The problem is he is priced up due to scoring a touchdown in each of his last two games, so at $5,200 he’s a tough play this week.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown- Captain/Flex Play

Antonio Brown has been on fire the last two games as he has 7 receptions in each of the last two games since returning from Covid. Brown was dominant last week against the Dolphins as he had 124 yards and 2 touchdowns, which was his second 100-yard game of the season. The best part about Brown this week is the price. At just $8,200 for a flex, he is the cheapest of the Buccaneers three receivers and picking the right one is splitting hairs as they are all in somewhat difficult matchups without a corner to truly pick on for this week. The only issue for Brown is that he has been the least utilized wide receiver in the Red Zone

Chris Godwin- Captain or Flex

Positive regression should be coming for Godwin this year. On the season, Chris Godwin is second in the NFL in terms of Red Zone targets with 11, but only has 2 touchdowns on the season. With no Rob Gronkowski to steal red zone targets, Godwin has a very good chance to score a touchdown this week

Mike Evans- Captain Play

The problem with Mike Evans is the price. On any given week, Mike Evans is a great option, but at $10,200 for a Flex and $15,300 for a captain spot, you really need to decide whether he is going to outperform either Brady or Hurts, as it is impossible to fit all three into your lineup this week. If you’re going to play Evans, play him as a captain with Brady as the flex without Hurts in the hope that the Buccaneers win big with Evans catching multiple touchdowns.

Other Targets-

Tyler Johnson- Great Flex- Low-end player who caught three passes last week and played 51% of the snaps last week.

Cameron Brate- Low-End Flex- This is what we will call “touchdown-chasing”. Brady threw for 411 yards last week and Brate had one catch for 12 yards. It’s a cheap price, but most likely will result in a low result.

Eagles Overview

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts- Captain or Flex

This offense runs through Jalen Hurts, and this one is a bit tricky as he is in an outstanding passing matchup, but is facing the best run defense in football which is where he gets a lot of his upside from. Looking at 2021, the Buccaneers have allowed a total of 13 rushing yards in the first five games. Hurts is a better flex play as taking a lower end player could allow you to fit some of the more expensive options on this slate. With how bad the Buccaneers’ passing offense has been (allowing 314 yards per game), the Eagles receivers should have some upside and a path to paying off as the captain this week.

Running Back

This position is largely an avoid this week as taking a running back against the Buccaneers who are allowing 45 rushing yards per game. You’re essentially hoping that Miles Sanders can catch 5+ passes. If he fits into your lineup as a last player, he’s not a terrible play, but not someone who you should actively target.

Kenneth Gainwell- Flex

Kenneth Gainwell at $2,400 will receive some level of popularity this week due to the upside that he has shown particularly in games that have got out of hand such as the Chiefs game earlier this season. The problem is relying on him heavily at just a 24% snap share last week, makes it difficult to trust as the consistency may not be there for him. All he likely needs is a few catches, and he does have as many red zone targets as Miles Sanders as they both lead the team with 8, so he is a very strong salary relief player, just know that he could also get you sub-5 points this week.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Zach Ertz- Great Captain/Flex

With no Dallas Goedert this week, Zach Ertz is in an outstanding position to play a significant role in this offense. Ertz struggled last week as he only had one reception for seven yards, but did have six targets in the game. He has now been targeted 21 times over the last three weeks, and the Eagles have targeted tight ends 33 times between Ertz and Goedert over that timeframe. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, while not facing an elite tight end (Waller, Kelce) which often skew the stats upwards.

Devonta Smith- Captain or Flex in Eagles Stacks Only

Devonta Smith is in a tricky spot here as the issue comes down to his price. The matchup is certainly a good one, but Smith has been a bit of a yo-yo this year in terms of production as he has three games over 70 yards and two games under 30 yards. The problem is for $8,800, having a receiver who has more touchdown upside is imperative. Devonta Smith only has two red zone targets all season. At his price, you’re really relying on the passing game of Philadelphia to dominate, so build a correlated lineup around that.

Other Targets-

Quez Watkins- Flex Play- 10 targets over his last two weeks, but has topped 50 yards just once this year. Does have big play ability in a good matchup this week.
Jalen Reagor- Low End Flex Play- Likely sees more playing time with Dallas Goedert out, but at $5,000 for a receiver who is averaging just 28 yards per game is a tough sell this week.
Jake Elliott- Flex Play- With how good the Buccaneers run defense is, there could be a scenario where they allow a lot of yards through the air between the 20’s but the Eagles are not able to capitalize in the Red Zone.
Greg Ward- Bottom of the Barrel Play- This is entirely speculation, but Ward could be in line for an increase in work load with no Goedert. If you need to build a stars/scrubs lineup, he’s probably the only sub-1k player who could be considered.