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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, September 12th at 8 AM
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Cleveland | -5.5 | 54.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Dallas | -8.5 | 51.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Tennessee | Arizona | -3 | 53.5 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Buffalo | Pittsburgh | -6.5 | 48.5 | 27.5 | «« | «« | |
Baltimore | Las Vegas | -4 | 50.5 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
LA Rams | Chicago | -7.5 | 46.5 | 27 | «« | ««« | « |
San Francisco | Detroit | -8.5 | 45.5 | 27 | «« | ««« | « |
Green Bay | New Orleans | -3.5 | 49.5 | 26.5 | «« | «« | |
Seattle | Indianapolis | -3 | 48.5 | 25.75 | « | « | |
Atlanta | Philadelphia | -3 | 48.5 | 25.75 | « | « | |
Minnesota | Cincinnati | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Arizona | Tennessee | 3 | 53.5 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Cleveland | Kansas City | 5.5 | 54.5 | 24.5 | « | « | |
Carolina | NY Jets | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Jacksonville | Houston | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | « | « | |
New England | Miami | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | « | ||
Las Vegas | Baltimore | 4 | 50.5 | 23.25 | |||
Washington | LA Chargers | -1.5 | 45 | 23.25 | |||
New Orleans | Green Bay | 3.5 | 49.5 | 23 | |||
Indianapolis | Seattle | 3 | 48.5 | 22.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Atlanta | 3 | 48.5 | 22.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Minnesota | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Denver | NY Giants | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | « | ||
LA Chargers | Washington | 1.5 | 45 | 21.75 | |||
Dallas | Tampa Bay | 8.5 | 51.5 | 21.5 | |||
Houston | Jacksonville | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||
Pittsburgh | Buffalo | 6.5 | 48.5 | 21 | |||
NY Jets | Carolina | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
Miami | New England | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
Chicago | LA Rams | 7.5 | 46.5 | 19.5 | |||
NY Giants | Denver | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
Detroit | San Francisco | 8.5 | 45.5 | 18.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon (49ers), Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel (Rams)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Josh Allen (Bills), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Derrick Henry (Titans), Gus Edwards (Ravens), Zack Moss/Devin Singletary (Bills), Aaron Jones (Packers), Chris Carson (Seahawks)
- Receivers: A.J. Brown/Julio Jones/Josh Reynolds/Anthony Firkser (Titans), Marquise Brown/Sammy Watkins/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Stefon Diggs/Cole Beasley/Emmanuel Sanders (Bills), Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel/George Kittle (49ers), Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Dee Eskridge/Gerald Everett (Seahawks)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Sam Darnold (Panthers)
- Running Back: Mike Davis (Falcons), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Chase Edmonds/James Conner (Cardinals), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Calvin Ridley/Russell Gage/Kyle Pitts (Falcons), Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson/Tyler Conklin (Vikings), DeAndre Hopkins/A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), D.J. Moore/Robby Anderson/Terrace Marshall/Dan Arnold (Panthers)
- Defense: 49ers, Broncos, Rams, Patriots