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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 12th @ 8 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Las Vegas | -9.5 | 48 | 28.75 | «« | ««« | « |
Tampa Bay | Buffalo | -3.5 | 54 | 28.75 | «« | «« | |
Green Bay | Chicago | -12 | 43 | 27.5 | « | «« | ««« |
Arizona | LA Rams | -2.5 | 51.5 | 27 | « | « | |
Denver | Detroit | -11.5 | 42 | 26.75 | « | «« | ««« |
Dallas | Washington | -4.5 | 48 | 26.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | NY Giants | -9 | 43 | 26 | « | «« | «« |
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -8.5 | 43.5 | 26 | « | «« | «« |
Buffalo | Tampa Bay | 3.5 | 54 | 25.25 | |||
San Francisco | Cincinnati | -1.5 | 49 | 25.25 | |||
Seattle | Houston | -8.5 | 41 | 24.75 | «« | ||
LA Rams | Arizona | 2.5 | 51.5 | 24.5 | |||
New Orleans | NY Jets | -5.5 | 42.5 | 24 | « | ||
Minnesota | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||
Cincinnati | San Francisco | 1.5 | 49 | 23.75 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
Carolina | Atlanta | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | « | ||
Washington | Dallas | 4.5 | 48 | 21.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | Minnesota | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
Baltimore | Cleveland | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
Atlanta | Carolina | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
Las Vegas | Kansas City | 9.5 | 48 | 19.25 | |||
NY Jets | New Orleans | 5.5 | 42.5 | 18.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 8.5 | 43.5 | 17.5 | |||
NY Giants | LA Chargers | 9 | 43 | 17 | |||
Houston | Seattle | 8.5 | 41 | 16.25 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | 12 | 43 | 15.5 | |||
Detroit | Denver | 11.5 | 42 | 15.25 |
Bye Weeks: Indianapolis, Miami, New England, Philadelphia
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams (Chiefs)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Packers, Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon (Packers), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Dontrelle Hilliard/DOnta Foreman (Titans), Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon (Broncos)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers),
- Defense: Seahawks, Chargers, Titans
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Teddy Bridgewater (Broncos)
- Running Back: James Conner (Cardinals), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Randall Cobb (Packers), Mike Williams/Jalen Guyton/Jared Cook (Chargers), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/A.J. Green/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), Julio Jones/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine/Anthony Firkser (Titans), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Jerry Jeudy/Courtland Sutton/Noah Fant (Broncos)
- Defense: Saints, Chiefs, Panthers