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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, September 19th @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -12.5 | 51.5 | 32 | ««« | ««« | « |
Cleveland | Houston | -13 | 48 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Seattle | Tennessee | -6.5 | 53.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Green Bay | Detroit | -11.5 | 48.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | « |
Kansas City | Baltimore | -4 | 54 | 29 | «« | «« | |
LA Chargers | Dallas | -3 | 55 | 29 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | Minnesota | -3.5 | 50.5 | 27 | « | « | |
Pittsburgh | Las Vegas | -6 | 47 | 26.5 | « | « | |
San Francisco | Philadelphia | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | « | « | |
Dallas | LA Chargers | 3 | 55 | 26 | « | « | |
LA Rams | Indianapolis | -3.5 | 48 | 25.75 | |||
Denver | Jacksonville | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | « | ||
Buffalo | Miami | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | |||
Baltimore | Kansas City | 4 | 54 | 25 | |||
New England | NY Jets | -6 | 43 | 24.5 | « | ||
New Orleans | Carolina | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Tennessee | Seattle | 6.5 | 53.5 | 23.5 | |||
Minnesota | Arizona | 3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 | |||
Philadelphia | San Francisco | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
Chicago | Cincinnati | -1.5 | 44.5 | 23 | |||
Indianapolis | LA Rams | 3.5 | 48 | 22.25 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Washington | NY Giants | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | « | ||
Cincinnati | Chicago | 1.5 | 44.5 | 21.5 | |||
Carolina | New Orleans | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Las Vegas | Pittsburgh | 6 | 47 | 20.5 | |||
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 12.5 | 51.5 | 19.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Denver | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 11.5 | 48.5 | 18.5 | « | ||
NY Giants | Washington | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 6 | 43 | 18.5 | |||
Houston | Cleveland | 13 | 48 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Aaron Jones (Packers)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Jarvis Landry/Odell Beckham/David Njoku (Browns), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Dee Eskridge/Gerald Everett (Seahawks), Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Justin Herbert (Chargers)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Jared Cook (Chargers)
- Defense: Browns
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Chase Edmonds/James Conner (Cardinals), Najee Harris (Steelers), Elijah Mitchell/Trey Sermon (49ers), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/A.J. Green/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), Diontae Johnson/Chase Claypool/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Eric Ebron (Steelers), Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle (49ers), Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz/Blake Jarwin (Cowboys)
- Defense: Patriots, Packers, Football Team, Broncos, Buccaneers