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The wide receiver position requires two different approaches with projections and draft cost. One lens to look is through rookies, and another is through veterans. As you will see, rookies are priced higher than production projections because they are bets on the future. With the significant factor production has on cost, veterans should not have the same forgiveness. Below are veteran wide receivers who fail to meet their cost.
Veterans Who Miss Dynasty Draft Cost
Michael Thomas (Dynasty ADP: WR22, Our 2021 Projection: WR57)
Thomas is an outlier on this list because of injury. Our projections are bearish, projecting only 10 games, but with 15 points per game, a solid shot in the arm for a contending team making a stretch run. If you have the stomach and patience for him, Thomas can be useful down the stretch of the season and a good long-term investment.
Michael Pittman Jr (Dynasty ADP: WR41.50, Our 2021 Projection: WR49)
The most dangerous profile at the wide receiver position is the wide receiver who has yet to break out who is projected worse than his cost. This is the equivalent of trying to catch a just sharpened falling knife: it is going to hurt and still probably hit the floor. Pittman is a classic pivot player to move up the board at other positions.
Jerry Jeudy (Dynasty ADP: WR23, Our 2021 Projection: WR30)
Like Pittman, Jeudy is a young wide receiver who has yet to break out but is projected to finish worse than his cost. Jeudy has optimistic signs, including an above-average yards per route run production as a rookie, but the volume (1008 yards on 74 catches) is not enough to move the needle at the position. He is very likely to fall in cost if he produces a WR30 finish outside of intervening events (like an Aaron Rodgers trade), so there is still a window to cash out.
Chase Claypool (Dynasty ADP: WR21, Our 2021 Projection: WR28)
Chase Claypool may be the exception to the rule on dangerous profiles. Claypool’s WR22 finish gets him on the career trajectory of a hit, and his 2021 projection could be a consequence of a crowded offense with a declining quarterback. The 2022 season could look better with both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ben Roethlisberger free agents, so he is unlikely to be a value risk at his present cost.
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