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The Spotlight Series

A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.

Fantasy managers love predictability and tend to underestimate year-to-year volatility grossly. We tend to believe a player’s most recent output is their most likely future output, even if surrounding conditions have changed materially. For those reasons, Deebo Samuel is a divisive player entering the 2022 draft season. On the one hand, Samuel delivered an elite fantasy season a year ago in part by becoming a hybrid running back. On the other hand, he reportedly disliked his usage last year and wants to return to a more traditional receiving role. Will head coach Kyle Shanahan acquiesce to Samuel’s wishes? And how will the transition to Trey Lance at quarterback change the calculus?

• Samuel delivered a top-3 fantasy season last year and is in his prime
• His evolution into a hybrid running back has few historical comparables
• His usage as a running back didn’t change his fantasy value
• His rushing touchdown production Is unquestionably unsustainable
• A revamped coaching staff and Trey Lance’s ascension add uncertainty

A Top-3 Fantasy Receiver

Tyshun Raequan “Deebo” Samuel didn’t profile as a league-winning WR1 entering last season. After a promising rookie year in 2019 (961 yards and six touchdowns), Samuel regressed in 2020. He missed nine games, including an early-season stint on injured reserve, dealing with a broken foot, followed by two hamstring absences and a bout of COVID-19. His 33 catches for 391 yards and one touchdown over seven games pro-rated to an equally uninspiring 75 receptions for 894 yards and 2.3 touchdowns.

Fantasy managers who focused on Samuel’s talent and opportunity and looked past his 2020 injury luck were handsomely rewarded.

• 121 targets
• 77 receptions
• 63.6% catch rate
• 1,405 receiving yards
• 18.2 yards per reception
• 6 receiving touchdowns
• 59 rushes
• 365 rushing yards
• 8 rushing touchdowns
• WR3 (PPR)

An Unusual Hybrid Role

After a litany of injuries left the 49ers' running back corps barren, head coach Kyle Shanahan did something unexpected. He took his No. 1 receiver, who was second in the league (behind Cooper Kupp) in receiving yards, and converted him into a hybrid player who frequently lined up at tailback. Samuel rushed the ball 59 times for 365 yards and 8 touchdowns. It’s exceedingly rare for a receiver to carry the ball 50 times in a season. In fact, it’s only happened six times in the last 20 years.

Wide Receivers with 50+ Carries in a Season (2002-2021)

The only modern player remotely comparable to Samuel was Percy Harvin. He also rushed 50+ times while catching 70+ receptions. The difference is Harvin wasn’t an explosive receiver, averaging approximately 11 yards per catch, whereas Samuel averaged a league-leading 18.2 yards.

Disdain for the Role

Although Samuel thrived as a ball carrier, he wasn’t happy with the role. He publicly requested a trade and reiterated his desire to be moved multiple times leading up to the NFL draft. The 49ers organization paid lip service to exploring a potential move but ultimately kept Samuel on the roster. Barring a sudden change of plans, Samuel will play in San Francisco again this season. But was Samuel placated by the coaches? Was he promised a return to a more conventional receiving role? We won’t know that until it’s directly addressed in training camp or on the field.

The Myth of His Fantasy Evolution

It’s frustrating when narrative overtakes reality. Too many fantasy managers reading this think Samuel’s fantasy stardom directly coincided with his morphing into a hybrid running back. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

Deebo Samuel 1st and 2nd Half Season Splits, 2021

In eight games as a conventional receiver, Samuel averaged 21.2 PPR fantasy points. In eight games as a hybrid runner, he averaged 21.1 PPR fantasy points. He was the identical fantasy player, at least in PPR formats (in non-PPR Samuel’s value did increase as a ball carrier).

Samuel’s equivalent fantasy value before and after his transformation is a vital piece of the puzzle, particularly if the 49ers return him to a conventional receiving role in 2022. If you’re avoiding Samuel at his ADP because you think he will lose the rushing stats, you’re worrying about the wrong thing.

Samuel was still the 11th-best fantasy receiver, even if you remove rushing statistics from the equation altogether.

Top 25 Fantasy Receivers, 2021 -- Based Solely on Receiving Statistics

Beware of Touchdown Regression

Fantasy managers hoping Samuel continues running the ball should reconsider. Not only does it increase the risk of injury (one of the reasons Samuel wants to return to a conventional role), but his rushing touchdown rate was unquestionably unsustainable. Samuel scored eight times on 59 attempts, a 13.6% touchdown rate. That’s the best touchdown rate at any position over the last 20 years.

Best Single-Season Rushing TD Conversion Rates (2002-2021, Minimum: 50 Attempts)

Samuel scored more frequently than any goal-line tailback, mobile quarterback, or workhorse runner in two decades. Even if Samuel gets 50+ carries again this season, we should project for a significant reduction in scoring, 50% or less, to be intellectually honest.

The league-wide touchdown rate over the last 20 years is just 3.1%. Even if you think Samuel’s role lends itself to an unusually high conversion rate, doubling the league average (6.2%) would still yield half the rushing scores from a season ago.

Coaching and Quarterbacking Uncertainty

Many wonder what we mean by coaching uncertainty, considering Kyle Shanahan remains the head coach and play-caller. While San Francisco doesn’t face the same questions teams as the Bears or Jaguars do, it’s important to acknowledge the 49ers' massive coaching turnover this offseason.

• Offensive Coordinator – Mike McDaniel OUT, now Vacant
• Passing Game Coordinator – Bobby Slowik (promoted)
• Running Game Coordinator – Chris Foerster (promoted)
• Quarterbacks Coach – Rich Scangarello OUT, Brian Griese IN
• Running Backs Coach – Bobby Turner OUT, Anthony Lynn IN
• Wide Receivers Coach – Wes Welker OUT, Leonard Hankerson (promoted) IN
• Tight Ends Coach – Jon Embree OUT, Brian Fleury (promoted) IN

It’s exceedingly rare for an entire offensive coaching staff to turn over without the head coach. Maybe it won’t matter since Shanahan remains the architect. But don’t assume the 49ers will execute as well – particularly early in the season – as they did last year.

The bigger question is whether Trey Lance will be an upgrade at quarterback. The organization expects as much. Why else would they tell Jimmy Garappolo to avoid mini-camp practices? Unless the 49ers change course and retain Garappolo, Lance will have an unfettered hold on the starting job. Nothing is guaranteed, but Shanahan handpicked Lance to move the 49ers' offense from very good to elite, much like Patrick Mahomes took Andy Reid’s offense from good to excellent a few seasons ago.

We cannot be sure Lance will provide Samuel with the same opportunities, but it’s a leap of faith worth taking when you consider Shanahan knows Lance’s capabilities far better than any of us.

PROJECTIONS AND STATS

Final Thoughts

Deebo Samuel had an astoundingly good season in 2021, and it was arguably the most unusual season for a star receiver in modern history. Midway through the year, he morphed from a conventional No. 1 target into a playmaker who ran the ball 50+ times and scored eight rushing touchdowns. He was a defensive matchup nightmare. But Samuel has battled plenty of injuries in his young career and appears worried about how his hybrid role will impact his longevity and long-term earnings potential. Although his trade request appears to have fallen on deaf ears, one has to think the coaches will reconsider their usage. The great news is Samuel's fantasy value isn't contingent on sustaining a hybrid workload. He had identical fantasy splits last year, before and after his conversion. He was on his way to a 98-reception, 1,764-yard, 8-touchdown season as a "conventional" receiver. As long as he's made peace with the organization, and Trey Lance is as good as advertised, Samuel remains solidly in the top-10 conversation. Don't expect a repeat of last season's top-3 value, because his touchdown conversion rates are impossible to maintain, but don't shy away from making him your No. 1 receiver on draft day as long as the preseason and training camp point to a successful quarterback transition.