Redraft content is part of the PRO package for Footballguys Premium Subscriptions. We're making this preview available so you can see the edge these subscribers are getting. Sign up here.
The Spotlight Series
A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson
Tight Ends
Don't Believe the Hype?
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most divisive players in the player pool this year, and his performance in 2022 will be a fascinating test case of pedigree versus performance. Those who believe in historical analogs will undoubtedly avoid Lawrence because his rookie season wasn’t just bad; it was one of the worst campaigns in modern NFL history. On the other hand, some will be inclined to discount last year’s disastrous showing and fall back on Lawrence’s pristine pedigree. It’s not very often we see a quarterback so widely assigned a “can’t miss” label perform as poorly as Lawrence did in 2021. Is he worth taking the leap this year? Probably not, even though you’ll try hard to talk yourselves into it.
The Pedigree
Most NFL players were elite at lower levels, but rarely has someone been as well-regarded as Lawrence. In terms of pre-NFL bonafides, he’s unimpeachable. He became a starter as a freshman at Cartersville High School in Georgia, and led the team to a 52-2 record, including 41-0 in his final three years. He led the team to four divisional titles and two state championships. Lawrence threw for 13,902 yards and 161 passing touchdowns, breaking the Georgia records previously held by Deshaun Watson. Not only did he have gaudy numbers and a nearly perfect record, but he also had prototypical size and perfect mechanics. Lawrence was not only a coveted recruit; he stands to this day as one of the highest-rated prospects, clocking in with a 99.99 rating in the 247Sports Composite.
We all know Lawrence chose to play at Clemson (following Watson’s footsteps), and he took over as the starter just five games into his true freshman season. The Tigers won the National Championship, making Lawrence the first true freshman to ever start and win the title. In three years, Watson led the Tigers to a 34-2 record, two National Championship appearances, and put up elite numbers while comporting himself on and off the field in a mature, compelling manner.
There haven’t been many quarterbacks who were this heralded early on and never faltered in living up to expectations. Lawrence becoming the first-overall pick to the Jaguars a year ago was a foregone conclusion.
The Performance
The Jaguars have been a franchise without an identity for most of Shad Khan’s tenure as the team owner. Last year, the excitement for a breakthrough was palpable. Khan has lured Hall of Fame college super coach Urban Meyer to the NFL. Then they added Lawrence first overall and paired him with Clemson teammate and offensive engine Travis Etienne. The Jaguars weren’t going to win a Super Bowl in 2021, but surely it was the start of something great, right?
WRONG.
Few hires have gone as badly as quickly as Urban Meyer’s did in Jacksonville. He was ill-prepared for the NFL rigors, and his “my way or the highway” approach, which worked well in college when the kids had no agency in their own lives, was ineffective when dealing with professional adults making millions of dollars.
The team finished with a league-worst 3-14 record, and the ineptitude spanned every facet of the game.
- Record – 3-14 (32nd)
- Points Scored – 253 (32nd)
- Points Allowed – 457 (28th)
- Turnover Percentage – 15.7% (31st)
- Scoring Drive Conversion Rate – 26.4% (32nd)
- Turnovers Created Rate – 5.2% (32nd)
- Turnovers Forced – 9 (32nd)
Unfortunately, nothing went right for the team, including Lawrence’s performance. Even if you account for Lawrence being forced into the starting lineup as a rookie with an understaffed roster, you still can’t look at his 2021 season and find any statistical silver lining.
Lawrence was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season:
- QBR (33.5) – 28th out of 31 qualifiers
- Passer Rating (71.9) – 30th out of 31
- Completion Rate (59.6%) – 29th out of 31
- Yards per Attempt (6.0) – 31st out of 31
- Touchdown Rate (2.0%) – 31st out of 31
- Interception Rate (2.4%) – 24th out of 31
Fantasy managers understand Lawrence was bad, but they’re seemingly willing to give him a pass on the season because of the dysfunctional environment Meyer fostered. But I would argue optimistic fantasy managers don’t fully grasp the magnitude of Lawrence’s struggles, historically speaking.
A Study of Rookie Starters
Since 1992 (30 Years), there have been 76 rookie quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.
TABLE: Rookie Quarterbacks with 200+ Pass Attempts, Sorted by Passing Yards (1992-2021)
| Rank | Player | Year | Team | Gms | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TDs | Ints | TD% | Int% | NetTD-Int | Rate | Sk% | Yds/Att | ANY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Luck | 2012 | IND | 16 | 339 | 627 | 54.1% | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.80% | 76.5 | 6.1% | 6.976 | 5.656 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 2020 | LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 66.6% | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 5.2% | 1.7% | 3.53% | 98.3 | 5.1% | 7.287 | 6.839 |
| 3 | Cam Newton | 2011 | CAR | 16 | 310 | 517 | 60.0% | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 4.1% | 3.3% | 0.77% | 84.5 | 6.3% | 7.836 | 6.243 |
| 4 | Jameis Winston | 2015 | TAM | 16 | 312 | 535 | 58.3% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.31% | 84.2 | 4.8% | 7.555 | 6.436 |
| 5 | Mac Jones | 2021 | NWE | 17 | 352 | 521 | 67.6% | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.73% | 92.5 | 5.1% | 7.296 | 6.220 |
| 6 | Carson Wentz | 2016 | PHI | 16 | 379 | 607 | 62.4% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.33% | 79.3 | 5.2% | 6.231 | 5.092 |
| 7 | Peyton Manning | 1998 | IND | 16 | 326 | 575 | 56.7% | 3,739 | 26 | 28 | 4.5% | 4.9% | -0.35% | 71.2 | 3.7% | 6.503 | 4.841 |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | 2018 | CLE | 14 | 310 | 486 | 63.8% | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.67% | 93.7 | 4.9% | 7.665 | 6.775 |
| 9 | Kyler Murray | 2019 | ARI | 16 | 349 | 542 | 64.4% | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.48% | 87.4 | 8.1% | 6.867 | 5.547 |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | 2016 | DAL | 16 | 311 | 459 | 67.8% | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 5.0% | 0.9% | 4.14% | 104.9 | 5.2% | 7.989 | 7.860 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | JAX | 17 | 359 | 602 | 59.6% | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 2.0% | 2.8% | -0.83% | 71.9 | 5.0% | 6.048 | 4.539 |
| 12 | Sam Bradford | 2010 | STL | 16 | 354 | 590 | 60.0% | 3,512 | 18 | 15 | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.51% | 76.5 | 5.4% | 5.953 | 4.732 |
| 13 | Matt Ryan | 2008 | ATL | 16 | 265 | 434 | 61.1% | 3,440 | 16 | 11 | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.15% | 87.7 | 3.8% | 7.926 | 7.009 |
| 14 | Andy Dalton | 2011 | CIN | 16 | 300 | 516 | 58.1% | 3,398 | 20 | 13 | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.36% | 80.4 | 4.4% | 6.585 | 5.654 |
| 15 | Brandon Weeden | 2012 | CLE | 15 | 297 | 517 | 57.4% | 3,385 | 14 | 17 | 2.7% | 3.3% | -0.58% | 72.6 | 5.1% | 6.547 | 4.980 |
| 16 | Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | MIA | 16 | 282 | 484 | 58.3% | 3,294 | 12 | 13 | 2.5% | 2.7% | -0.21% | 76.1 | 6.7% | 6.806 | 5.231 |
| 17 | Gardner Minshew II | 2019 | JAX | 14 | 285 | 470 | 60.6% | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 4.5% | 1.3% | 3.19% | 91.2 | 6.6% | 6.960 | 6.435 |
| 18 | Derek Carr | 2014 | OAK | 16 | 348 | 599 | 58.1% | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.50% | 76.6 | 3.9% | 5.459 | 4.817 |
| 19 | Robert Griffin III | 2012 | WAS | 15 | 258 | 393 | 65.6% | 3,200 | 20 | 5 | 5.1% | 1.3% | 3.82% | 102.4 | 7.1% | 8.142 | 7.466 |
| 20 | Russell Wilson | 2012 | SEA | 16 | 252 | 393 | 64.1% | 3,118 | 26 | 10 | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.07% | 100.0 | 7.7% | 7.934 | 7.007 |
| 21 | Geno Smith | 2013 | NYJ | 16 | 247 | 443 | 55.8% | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 2.7% | 4.7% | -2.03% | 66.5 | 8.8% | 6.876 | 4.169 |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | 2019 | NYG | 13 | 284 | 459 | 61.9% | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.61% | 87.7 | 7.6% | 6.595 | 5.376 |
| 23 | Joe Flacco | 2008 | BAL | 16 | 257 | 428 | 60.0% | 2,971 | 14 | 12 | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.47% | 80.3 | 7.0% | 6.942 | 5.293 |
| 24 | Chris Weinke | 2001 | CAR | 15 | 293 | 540 | 54.3% | 2,931 | 11 | 19 | 2.0% | 3.5% | -1.48% | 62.0 | 4.6% | 5.428 | 3.744 |
| 25 | Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | MIN | 13 | 259 | 402 | 64.4% | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.50% | 85.2 | 8.8% | 7.261 | 5.465 |
| 26 | Blake Bortles | 2014 | JAX | 14 | 280 | 475 | 58.9% | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 2.3% | 3.6% | -1.26% | 69.5 | 10.4% | 6.122 | 3.808 |
| 27 | DeShone Kizer | 2017 | CLE | 15 | 255 | 476 | 53.6% | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 2.3% | 4.6% | -2.31% | 60.5 | 7.4% | 6.080 | 3.693 |
| 28 | Sam Darnold | 2018 | NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 57.7% | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.48% | 77.6 | 6.8% | 6.920 | 5.239 |
| 29 | Rick Mirer | 1993 | SEA | 16 | 274 | 486 | 56.4% | 2,833 | 12 | 17 | 2.5% | 3.5% | -1.03% | 67.0 | 8.8% | 5.829 | 3.889 |
| 30 | Byron Leftwich | 2003 | JAX | 15 | 239 | 418 | 57.2% | 2,819 | 14 | 16 | 3.3% | 3.8% | -0.48% | 73.0 | 4.3% | 6.744 | 5.238 |
| 31 | Marcus Mariota | 2015 | TEN | 12 | 230 | 370 | 62.2% | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.43% | 91.5 | 9.3% | 7.616 | 6.103 |
| 32 | Kerry Collins | 1995 | CAR | 15 | 214 | 433 | 49.4% | 2,717 | 14 | 19 | 3.2% | 4.4% | -1.15% | 61.9 | 5.3% | 6.275 | 4.359 |
| 33 | Joe Burrow | 2020 | CIN | 10 | 264 | 404 | 65.3% | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.98% | 89.8 | 7.3% | 6.653 | 5.716 |
| 34 | Davis Mills | 2021 | HOU | 13 | 263 | 394 | 66.8% | 2,664 | 16 | 10 | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.52% | 88.8 | 7.3% | 6.761 | 5.478 |
| 35 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | PIT | 14 | 196 | 295 | 66.4% | 2,621 | 17 | 11 | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.03% | 98.1 | 9.2% | 8.885 | 6.932 |
| 36 | Mike Glennon | 2013 | TAM | 13 | 247 | 416 | 59.4% | 2,608 | 19 | 9 | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.40% | 83.9 | 8.8% | 6.269 | 4.976 |
| 37 | David Carr | 2002 | HOU | 16 | 233 | 444 | 52.5% | 2,592 | 9 | 15 | 2.0% | 3.4% | -1.35% | 62.8 | 14.6% | 5.838 | 3.242 |
| 38 | Matt Leinart | 2006 | ARI | 12 | 214 | 377 | 56.8% | 2,547 | 11 | 12 | 2.9% | 3.2% | -0.27% | 74.0 | 5.3% | 6.756 | 5.198 |
| 39 | Tony Banks | 1996 | STL | 14 | 192 | 368 | 52.2% | 2,544 | 15 | 15 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.00% | 71.0 | 11.5% | 6.913 | 4.478 |
| 40 | Drew Bledsoe | 1993 | NWE | 13 | 214 | 429 | 49.9% | 2,494 | 15 | 15 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.00% | 65.0 | 3.6% | 5.814 | 4.539 |
| 41 | Tim Couch | 1999 | CLE | 15 | 223 | 399 | 55.9% | 2,447 | 15 | 13 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.50% | 73.2 | 12.3% | 6.133 | 3.963 |
| 42 | Mark Sanchez | 2009 | NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 53.8% | 2,444 | 12 | 20 | 3.3% | 5.5% | -2.20% | 63.0 | 6.7% | 6.714 | 4.074 |
| 43 | Zach Wilson | 2021 | NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 55.6% | 2,334 | 9 | 11 | 2.3% | 2.9% | -0.52% | 69.7 | 10.3% | 6.094 | 3.862 |
| 44 | Joey Harrington | 2002 | DET | 14 | 215 | 429 | 50.1% | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 2.8% | 3.7% | -0.93% | 59.9 | 1.8% | 5.347 | 3.979 |
| 45 | Josh Rosen | 2018 | ARI | 14 | 217 | 393 | 55.2% | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 2.8% | 3.6% | -0.76% | 66.7 | 10.3% | 5.796 | 3.534 |
| 46 | Matthew Stafford | 2009 | DET | 10 | 201 | 377 | 53.3% | 2,267 | 13 | 20 | 3.4% | 5.3% | -1.86% | 61.0 | 6.0% | 6.013 | 3.636 |
| 47 | Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | JAX | 15 | 210 | 413 | 50.8% | 2,214 | 12 | 11 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.24% | 65.4 | 8.8% | 5.361 | 3.678 |
| 48 | Jake Plummer | 1997 | ARI | 10 | 157 | 296 | 53.0% | 2,203 | 15 | 15 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 14.9% | 7.443 | 4.417 |
| 49 | Vince Young | 2006 | TEN | 15 | 184 | 357 | 51.5% | 2,199 | 12 | 13 | 3.4% | 3.6% | -0.28% | 66.7 | 6.5% | 6.160 | 4.516 |
| 50 | Mitchell Trubisky | 2017 | CHI | 12 | 196 | 330 | 59.4% | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.00% | 77.5 | 8.6% | 6.645 | 5.047 |
| 51 | Charlie Batch | 1998 | DET | 12 | 173 | 303 | 57.1% | 2,178 | 11 | 6 | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.65% | 83.5 | 10.9% | 7.188 | 5.606 |
| 52 | Josh Allen | 2018 | BUF | 12 | 169 | 320 | 52.8% | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 3.1% | 3.8% | -0.63% | 67.9 | 8.0% | 6.481 | 4.371 |
| 53 | EJ Manuel | 2013 | BUF | 10 | 180 | 306 | 58.8% | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.65% | 77.7 | 8.4% | 6.444 | 4.874 |
| 54 | Justin Fields | 2021 | CHI | 12 | 159 | 270 | 58.9% | 1,870 | 7 | 10 | 2.6% | 3.7% | -1.11% | 73.2 | 11.8% | 6.926 | 4.235 |
| 55 | Kyle Orton | 2005 | CHI | 15 | 190 | 368 | 51.6% | 1,869 | 9 | 13 | 2.4% | 3.5% | -1.09% | 59.7 | 7.5% | 5.079 | 3.201 |
| 56 | Josh Freeman | 2009 | TAM | 10 | 158 | 290 | 54.5% | 1,855 | 10 | 18 | 3.4% | 6.2% | -2.76% | 59.8 | 6.5% | 6.397 | 3.687 |
| 57 | Christian Ponder | 2011 | MIN | 11 | 158 | 291 | 54.3% | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.00% | 70.1 | 9.3% | 6.368 | 4.249 |
| 58 | Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | MIA | 10 | 186 | 290 | 64.1% | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.07% | 87.1 | 6.5% | 6.255 | 5.397 |
| 59 | Deshaun Watson | 2017 | HOU | 7 | 126 | 204 | 61.8% | 1,699 | 19 | 8 | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.39% | 103.0 | 8.5% | 8.328 | 7.188 |
| 60 | Nick Foles | 2012 | PHI | 7 | 161 | 265 | 60.8% | 1,699 | 6 | 5 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.38% | 79.1 | 7.0% | 6.411 | 5.133 |
| 61 | Bruce Gradkowski | 2006 | TAM | 13 | 177 | 328 | 54.0% | 1,661 | 9 | 9 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 7.1% | 5.064 | 3.654 |
| 62 | Heath Shuler | 1994 | WAS | 11 | <
