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The Spotlight Series
A Footballguys Spotlight is an in-depth look at a player. His plusses and minuses are examined, and we give you our bottom-line stance on his 2022 prospects. If a player listed below doesn't yet have a link, don't worry. It's coming soon.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
Kirk Cousins
Justin Fields
Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson
Tight Ends
Don't Believe the Hype?
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most divisive players in the player pool this year, and his performance in 2022 will be a fascinating test case of pedigree versus performance. Those who believe in historical analogs will undoubtedly avoid Lawrence because his rookie season wasn’t just bad; it was one of the worst campaigns in modern NFL history. On the other hand, some will be inclined to discount last year’s disastrous showing and fall back on Lawrence’s pristine pedigree. It’s not very often we see a quarterback so widely assigned a “can’t miss” label perform as poorly as Lawrence did in 2021. Is he worth taking the leap this year? Probably not, even though you’ll try hard to talk yourselves into it.
The Pedigree
Most NFL players were elite at lower levels, but rarely has someone been as well-regarded as Lawrence. In terms of pre-NFL bonafides, he’s unimpeachable. He became a starter as a freshman at Cartersville High School in Georgia, and led the team to a 52-2 record, including 41-0 in his final three years. He led the team to four divisional titles and two state championships. Lawrence threw for 13,902 yards and 161 passing touchdowns, breaking the Georgia records previously held by Deshaun Watson. Not only did he have gaudy numbers and a nearly perfect record, but he also had prototypical size and perfect mechanics. Lawrence was not only a coveted recruit; he stands to this day as one of the highest-rated prospects, clocking in with a 99.99 rating in the 247Sports Composite.
We all know Lawrence chose to play at Clemson (following Watson’s footsteps), and he took over as the starter just five games into his true freshman season. The Tigers won the National Championship, making Lawrence the first true freshman to ever start and win the title. In three years, Watson led the Tigers to a 34-2 record, two National Championship appearances, and put up elite numbers while comporting himself on and off the field in a mature, compelling manner.
There haven’t been many quarterbacks who were this heralded early on and never faltered in living up to expectations. Lawrence becoming the first-overall pick to the Jaguars a year ago was a foregone conclusion.
The Performance
The Jaguars have been a franchise without an identity for most of Shad Khan’s tenure as the team owner. Last year, the excitement for a breakthrough was palpable. Khan has lured Hall of Fame college super coach Urban Meyer to the NFL. Then they added Lawrence first overall and paired him with Clemson teammate and offensive engine Travis Etienne. The Jaguars weren’t going to win a Super Bowl in 2021, but surely it was the start of something great, right?
WRONG.
Few hires have gone as badly as quickly as Urban Meyer’s did in Jacksonville. He was ill-prepared for the NFL rigors, and his “my way or the highway” approach, which worked well in college when the kids had no agency in their own lives, was ineffective when dealing with professional adults making millions of dollars.
The team finished with a league-worst 3-14 record, and the ineptitude spanned every facet of the game.
- Record – 3-14 (32nd)
- Points Scored – 253 (32nd)
- Points Allowed – 457 (28th)
- Turnover Percentage – 15.7% (31st)
- Scoring Drive Conversion Rate – 26.4% (32nd)
- Turnovers Created Rate – 5.2% (32nd)
- Turnovers Forced – 9 (32nd)
Unfortunately, nothing went right for the team, including Lawrence’s performance. Even if you account for Lawrence being forced into the starting lineup as a rookie with an understaffed roster, you still can’t look at his 2021 season and find any statistical silver lining.
Lawrence was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season:
- QBR (33.5) – 28th out of 31 qualifiers
- Passer Rating (71.9) – 30th out of 31
- Completion Rate (59.6%) – 29th out of 31
- Yards per Attempt (6.0) – 31st out of 31
- Touchdown Rate (2.0%) – 31st out of 31
- Interception Rate (2.4%) – 24th out of 31
Fantasy managers understand Lawrence was bad, but they’re seemingly willing to give him a pass on the season because of the dysfunctional environment Meyer fostered. But I would argue optimistic fantasy managers don’t fully grasp the magnitude of Lawrence’s struggles, historically speaking.
A Study of Rookie Starters
Since 1992 (30 Years), there have been 76 rookie quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.
TABLE: Rookie Quarterbacks with 200+ Pass Attempts, Sorted by Passing Yards (1992-2021)
| Rank | Player | Year | Team | Gms | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TDs | Ints | TD% | Int% | NetTD-Int | Rate | Sk% | Yds/Att | ANY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Luck | 2012 | IND | 16 | 339 | 627 | 54.1% | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.80% | 76.5 | 6.1% | 6.976 | 5.656 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 2020 | LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 66.6% | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 5.2% | 1.7% | 3.53% | 98.3 | 5.1% | 7.287 | 6.839 |
| 3 | Cam Newton | 2011 | CAR | 16 | 310 | 517 | 60.0% | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 4.1% | 3.3% | 0.77% | 84.5 | 6.3% | 7.836 | 6.243 |
| 4 | Jameis Winston | 2015 | TAM | 16 | 312 | 535 | 58.3% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.31% | 84.2 | 4.8% | 7.555 | 6.436 |
| 5 | Mac Jones | 2021 | NWE | 17 | 352 | 521 | 67.6% | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.73% | 92.5 | 5.1% | 7.296 | 6.220 |
| 6 | Carson Wentz | 2016 | PHI | 16 | 379 | 607 | 62.4% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.33% | 79.3 | 5.2% | 6.231 | 5.092 |
| 7 | Peyton Manning | 1998 | IND | 16 | 326 | 575 | 56.7% | 3,739 | 26 | 28 | 4.5% | 4.9% | -0.35% | 71.2 | 3.7% | 6.503 | 4.841 |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | 2018 | CLE | 14 | 310 | 486 | 63.8% | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.67% | 93.7 | 4.9% | 7.665 | 6.775 |
| 9 | Kyler Murray | 2019 | ARI | 16 | 349 | 542 | 64.4% | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.48% | 87.4 | 8.1% | 6.867 | 5.547 |
| 10 | Dak Prescott | 2016 | DAL | 16 | 311 | 459 | 67.8% | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 5.0% | 0.9% | 4.14% | 104.9 | 5.2% | 7.989 | 7.860 |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | JAX | 17 | 359 | 602 | 59.6% | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 2.0% | 2.8% | -0.83% | 71.9 | 5.0% | 6.048 | 4.539 |
| 12 | Sam Bradford | 2010 | STL | 16 | 354 | 590 | 60.0% | 3,512 | 18 | 15 | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.51% | 76.5 | 5.4% | 5.953 | 4.732 |
| 13 | Matt Ryan | 2008 | ATL | 16 | 265 | 434 | 61.1% | 3,440 | 16 | 11 | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.15% | 87.7 | 3.8% | 7.926 | 7.009 |
| 14 | Andy Dalton | 2011 | CIN | 16 | 300 | 516 | 58.1% | 3,398 | 20 | 13 | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.36% | 80.4 | 4.4% | 6.585 | 5.654 |
| 15 | Brandon Weeden | 2012 | CLE | 15 | 297 | 517 | 57.4% | 3,385 | 14 | 17 | 2.7% | 3.3% | -0.58% | 72.6 | 5.1% | 6.547 | 4.980 |
| 16 | Ryan Tannehill | 2012 | MIA | 16 | 282 | 484 | 58.3% | 3,294 | 12 | 13 | 2.5% | 2.7% | -0.21% | 76.1 | 6.7% | 6.806 | 5.231 |
| 17 | Gardner Minshew II | 2019 | JAX | 14 | 285 | 470 | 60.6% | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 4.5% | 1.3% | 3.19% | 91.2 | 6.6% | 6.960 | 6.435 |
| 18 | Derek Carr | 2014 | OAK | 16 | 348 | 599 | 58.1% | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.50% | 76.6 | 3.9% | 5.459 | 4.817 |
| 19 | Robert Griffin III | 2012 | WAS | 15 | 258 | 393 | 65.6% | 3,200 | 20 | 5 | 5.1% | 1.3% | 3.82% | 102.4 | 7.1% | 8.142 | 7.466 |
| 20 | Russell Wilson | 2012 | SEA | 16 | 252 | 393 | 64.1% | 3,118 | 26 | 10 | 6.6% | 2.5% | 4.07% | 100.0 | 7.7% | 7.934 | 7.007 |
| 21 | Geno Smith | 2013 | NYJ | 16 | 247 | 443 | 55.8% | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 2.7% | 4.7% | -2.03% | 66.5 | 8.8% | 6.876 | 4.169 |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | 2019 | NYG | 13 | 284 | 459 | 61.9% | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.61% | 87.7 | 7.6% | 6.595 | 5.376 |
| 23 | Joe Flacco | 2008 | BAL | 16 | 257 | 428 | 60.0% | 2,971 | 14 | 12 | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.47% | 80.3 | 7.0% | 6.942 | 5.293 |
| 24 | Chris Weinke | 2001 | CAR | 15 | 293 | 540 | 54.3% | 2,931 | 11 | 19 | 2.0% | 3.5% | -1.48% | 62.0 | 4.6% | 5.428 | 3.744 |
| 25 | Teddy Bridgewater | 2014 | MIN | 13 | 259 | 402 | 64.4% | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.50% | 85.2 | 8.8% | 7.261 | 5.465 |
| 26 | Blake Bortles | 2014 | JAX | 14 | 280 | 475 | 58.9% | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 2.3% | 3.6% | -1.26% | 69.5 | 10.4% | 6.122 | 3.808 |
| 27 | DeShone Kizer | 2017 | CLE | 15 | 255 | 476 | 53.6% | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 2.3% | 4.6% | -2.31% | 60.5 | 7.4% | 6.080 | 3.693 |
| 28 | Sam Darnold | 2018 | NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 57.7% | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.48% | 77.6 | 6.8% | 6.920 | 5.239 |
| 29 | Rick Mirer | 1993 | SEA | 16 | 274 | 486 | 56.4% | 2,833 | 12 | 17 | 2.5% | 3.5% | -1.03% | 67.0 | 8.8% | 5.829 | 3.889 |
| 30 | Byron Leftwich | 2003 | JAX | 15 | 239 | 418 | 57.2% | 2,819 | 14 | 16 | 3.3% | 3.8% | -0.48% | 73.0 | 4.3% | 6.744 | 5.238 |
| 31 | Marcus Mariota | 2015 | TEN | 12 | 230 | 370 | 62.2% | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.43% | 91.5 | 9.3% | 7.616 | 6.103 |
| 32 | Kerry Collins | 1995 | CAR | 15 | 214 | 433 | 49.4% | 2,717 | 14 | 19 | 3.2% | 4.4% | -1.15% | 61.9 | 5.3% | 6.275 | 4.359 |
| 33 | Joe Burrow | 2020 | CIN | 10 | 264 | 404 | 65.3% | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.98% | 89.8 | 7.3% | 6.653 | 5.716 |
| 34 | Davis Mills | 2021 | HOU | 13 | 263 | 394 | 66.8% | 2,664 | 16 | 10 | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.52% | 88.8 | 7.3% | 6.761 | 5.478 |
| 35 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | PIT | 14 | 196 | 295 | 66.4% | 2,621 | 17 | 11 | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.03% | 98.1 | 9.2% | 8.885 | 6.932 |
| 36 | Mike Glennon | 2013 | TAM | 13 | 247 | 416 | 59.4% | 2,608 | 19 | 9 | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.40% | 83.9 | 8.8% | 6.269 | 4.976 |
| 37 | David Carr | 2002 | HOU | 16 | 233 | 444 | 52.5% | 2,592 | 9 | 15 | 2.0% | 3.4% | -1.35% | 62.8 | 14.6% | 5.838 | 3.242 |
| 38 | Matt Leinart | 2006 | ARI | 12 | 214 | 377 | 56.8% | 2,547 | 11 | 12 | 2.9% | 3.2% | -0.27% | 74.0 | 5.3% | 6.756 | 5.198 |
| 39 | Tony Banks | 1996 | STL | 14 | 192 | 368 | 52.2% | 2,544 | 15 | 15 | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.00% | 71.0 | 11.5% | 6.913 | 4.478 |
| 40 | Drew Bledsoe | 1993 | NWE | 13 | 214 | 429 | 49.9% | 2,494 | 15 | 15 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.00% | 65.0 | 3.6% | 5.814 | 4.539 |
| 41 | Tim Couch | 1999 | CLE | 15 | 223 | 399 | 55.9% | 2,447 | 15 | 13 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 0.50% | 73.2 | 12.3% | 6.133 | 3.963 |
| 42 | Mark Sanchez | 2009 | NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 53.8% | 2,444 | 12 | 20 | 3.3% | 5.5% | -2.20% | 63.0 | 6.7% | 6.714 | 4.074 |
| 43 | Zach Wilson | 2021 | NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 55.6% | 2,334 | 9 | 11 | 2.3% | 2.9% | -0.52% | 69.7 | 10.3% | 6.094 | 3.862 |
| 44 | Joey Harrington | 2002 | DET | 14 | 215 | 429 | 50.1% | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 2.8% | 3.7% | -0.93% | 59.9 | 1.8% | 5.347 | 3.979 |
| 45 | Josh Rosen | 2018 | ARI | 14 | 217 | 393 | 55.2% | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 2.8% | 3.6% | -0.76% | 66.7 | 10.3% | 5.796 | 3.534 |
| 46 | Matthew Stafford | 2009 | DET | 10 | 201 | 377 | 53.3% | 2,267 | 13 | 20 | 3.4% | 5.3% | -1.86% | 61.0 | 6.0% | 6.013 | 3.636 |
| 47 | Blaine Gabbert | 2011 | JAX | 15 | 210 | 413 | 50.8% | 2,214 | 12 | 11 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.24% | 65.4 | 8.8% | 5.361 | 3.678 |
| 48 | Jake Plummer | 1997 | ARI | 10 | 157 | 296 | 53.0% | 2,203 | 15 | 15 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 14.9% | 7.443 | 4.417 |
| 49 | Vince Young | 2006 | TEN | 15 | 184 | 357 | 51.5% | 2,199 | 12 | 13 | 3.4% | 3.6% | -0.28% | 66.7 | 6.5% | 6.160 | 4.516 |
| 50 | Mitchell Trubisky | 2017 | CHI | 12 | 196 | 330 | 59.4% | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.00% | 77.5 | 8.6% | 6.645 | 5.047 |
| 51 | Charlie Batch | 1998 | DET | 12 | 173 | 303 | 57.1% | 2,178 | 11 | 6 | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.65% | 83.5 | 10.9% | 7.188 | 5.606 |
| 52 | Josh Allen | 2018 | BUF | 12 | 169 | 320 | 52.8% | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 3.1% | 3.8% | -0.63% | 67.9 | 8.0% | 6.481 | 4.371 |
| 53 | EJ Manuel | 2013 | BUF | 10 | 180 | 306 | 58.8% | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.65% | 77.7 | 8.4% | 6.444 | 4.874 |
| 54 | Justin Fields | 2021 | CHI | 12 | 159 | 270 | 58.9% | 1,870 | 7 | 10 | 2.6% | 3.7% | -1.11% | 73.2 | 11.8% | 6.926 | 4.235 |
| 55 | Kyle Orton | 2005 | CHI | 15 | 190 | 368 | 51.6% | 1,869 | 9 | 13 | 2.4% | 3.5% | -1.09% | 59.7 | 7.5% | 5.079 | 3.201 |
| 56 | Josh Freeman | 2009 | TAM | 10 | 158 | 290 | 54.5% | 1,855 | 10 | 18 | 3.4% | 6.2% | -2.76% | 59.8 | 6.5% | 6.397 | 3.687 |
| 57 | Christian Ponder | 2011 | MIN | 11 | 158 | 291 | 54.3% | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.00% | 70.1 | 9.3% | 6.368 | 4.249 |
| 58 | Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | MIA | 10 | 186 | 290 | 64.1% | 1,814 | 11 | 5 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.07% | 87.1 | 6.5% | 6.255 | 5.397 |
| 59 | Deshaun Watson | 2017 | HOU | 7 | 126 | 204 | 61.8% | 1,699 | 19 | 8 | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.39% | 103.0 | 8.5% | 8.328 | 7.188 |
| 60 | Nick Foles | 2012 | PHI | 7 | 161 | 265 | 60.8% | 1,699 | 6 | 5 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.38% | 79.1 | 7.0% | 6.411 | 5.133 |
| 61 | Bruce Gradkowski | 2006 | TAM | 13 | 177 | 328 | 54.0% | 1,661 | 9 | 9 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 7.1% | 5.064 | 3.654 |
| 62 | Heath Shuler | 1994 | WAS | 11 | 120 | 265 | 45.3% | 1,658 | 10 | 12 | 3.8% | 4.5% | -0.75% | 59.6 | 4.3% | 6.257 | 4.458 |
| 63 | Trent Edwards | 2007 | BUF | 10 | 151 | 269 | 56.1% | 1,630 | 7 | 8 | 2.6% | 3.0% | -0.37% | 70.4 | 4.3% | 6.059 | 4.644 |
| 64 | Colt McCoy | 2010 | CLE | 8 | 135 | 222 | 60.8% | 1,576 | 6 | 9 | 2.7% | 4.1% | -1.35% | 74.5 | 9.4% | 7.099 | 4.731 |
| 65 | Jimmy Clausen | 2010 | CAR | 13 | 157 | 299 | 52.5% | 1,558 | 3 | 9 | 1.0% | 3.0% | -2.01% | 58.4 | 9.9% | 5.211 | 2.982 |
| 66 | Chad Hutchinson | 2002 | DAL | 9 | 127 | 250 | 50.8% | 1,555 | 7 | 8 | 2.8% | 3.2% | -0.40% | 66.3 | 12.0% | 6.220 | 3.768 |
| 67 | Matt McGloin | 2013 | OAK | 7 | 118 | 211 | 55.9% | 1,547 | 8 | 8 | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.00% | 76.1 | 2.8% | 7.332 | 5.963 |
| 68 | Patrick Ramsey | 2002 | WAS | 9 | 117 | 227 | 51.5% | 1,539 | 9 | 8 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.44% | 71.8 | 7.3% | 6.780 | 5.008 |
| 69 | Cade McNown | 1999 | CHI | 15 | 127 | 235 | 54.0% | 1,465 | 8 | 10 | 3.4% | 4.3% | -0.85% | 66.7 | 7.1% | 6.234 | 4.273 |
| 70 | C.J. Beathard | 2017 | SFO | 7 | 123 | 224 | 54.9% | 1,430 | 4 | 6 | 1.8% | 2.7% | -0.89% | 69.2 | 7.8% | 6.384 | 4.523 |
| 71 | Dwayne Haskins | 2019 | WAS | 9 | 119 | 203 | 58.6% | 1,365 | 7 | 7 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.00% | 76.1 | 12.5% | 6.724 | 4.250 |
| 72 | Ryan Leaf | 1998 | SDG | 10 | 111 | 245 | 45.3% | 1,289 | 2 | 15 | 0.8% | 6.1% | -5.31% | 39.0 | 8.2% | 5.261 | 1.925 |
| 73 | Kyle Boller | 2003 | BAL | 11 | 116 | 224 | 51.8% | 1,260 | 7 | 9 | 3.1% | 4.0% | -0.89% | 62.4 | 7.1% | 5.625 | 3.747 |
| 74 | Ken Dorsey | 2004 | SFO | 8 | 123 | 226 | 54.4% | 1,231 | 6 | 9 | 2.7% | 4.0% | -1.33% | 62.4 | 5.4% | 5.447 | 3.565 |
| 75 | Jared Goff | 2016 | LAR | 7 | 112 | 205 | 54.6% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 2.4% | 3.4% | -0.98% | 63.6 | 11.3% | 5.312 | 2.823 |
| 76 | Donovan McNabb | 1999 | PHI | 12 | 106 | 216 | 49.1% | 948 | 8 | 7 | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.46% | 60.1 | 11.5% | 4.389 | 2.414 |
| TOTAL | 13 | 224 | 387 | 57.7% | 2,537 | 14 | 12 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.35% | 7.2% | 6.552 | 4.934 |
There’s a lot of data to parse, so let’s synthesize how Lawrence compares:
- Touchdown Rate (2.0%) – 73rd out of 76, and more than 40% less effective than the rookie average TD rate of 3.5%
- Yards per Attempt (6.0) – 8% worse than the average (6.6)
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (4.5) – 22% worse than the average (5.8)
- TD-INT Differential (-0.83%) – Well below the rookie average of (+0.35%)
Lawrence wasn’t Ryan Leaf, but he was significantly worse than the AVERAGE rookie starter.
But we must dig deeper, particularly as we look for some predictive indication of what Lawrence’s career could be. We need to whittle the list of 76 rookie starters down to those who more tightly fit what Lawrence did. So we pared the grouping using the following criteria:
- Touchdown Rate Below 3.0% (Lawrence was 2.0%)
- Interceptions > Touchdowns (Lawrence had 12 TDs vs. 17 INTs)
- Yards per Attempt Below Rookie Average 6.55% (Lawrence was 6.0%)
We’re left with 18 rookie starting quarterbacks who struggled as Lawrence did. Of note, Lawrence is joined by Zach Wilson on the list.
TABLE: Bad Rookie QB Seasons (1992-2021)
| Player | Season | Team | Gms | Cmp% | Net TD-Int | Yds/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 2014 | JAX | 14 | 58.9% | -1.26% | 6.122 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2012 | CLE | 15 | 57.4% | -0.58% | 6.547 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2017 | SFO | 7 | 54.9% | -0.89% | 6.384 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 2002 | DAL | 9 | 50.8% | -0.40% | 6.220 |
| Chris Weinke | 2001 | CAR | 15 | 54.3% | -1.48% | 5.428 |
| David Carr | 2002 | HOU | 16 | 52.5% | -1.35% | 5.838 |
| DeShone Kizer | 2017 | CLE | 15 | 53.6% | -2.31% | 6.080 |
| Jared Goff | 2016 | LAR | 7 | 54.6% | -0.98% | 5.312 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 2010 | CAR | 13 | 52.5% | -2.01% | 5.211 |
| Joey Harrington | 2002 | DET | 14 | 50.1% | -0.93% | 5.347 |
| Josh Rosen | 2018 | ARI | 14 | 55.2% | -0.76% | 5.796 |
| Ken Dorsey | 2004 | SFO | 8 | 54.4% | -1.33% | 5.447 |
| Kyle Orton | 2005 | CHI | 15 | 51.6% | -1.09% | 5.079 |
| Rick Mirer | 1993 | SEA | 16 | 56.4% | -1.03% | 5.829 |
| Ryan Leaf | 1998 | SDG | 10 | 45.3% | -5.31% | 5.261 |
| Trent Edwards | 2007 | BUF | 10 | 56.1% | -0.37% | 6.059 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | JAX | 17 | 59.6% | -0.83% | 6.048 |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | NYJ | 13 | 55.6% | -0.52% | 6.094 |
If you weren’t scared about Lawrence’s future before seeing this list, you should be now. These 18 quarterbacks with similar rookie seasons are a who’s who of NFL cautionary tales. When Jared Goff is your best comparable, that’s problematic. How many of these quarterbacks had a single fantasy-relevant season in their careers?
- Blake Bortles – Two (2) top-10 fantasy seasons
- Jared Goff – One (1) top-10 season
That’s it. That’s the list. Out of 16 veteran quarterbacks (remember, Fields and Lawrence are two of the 18), there have only been three top-10 fantasy seasons. 14 of 16 (87.5%) of these players were never relevant, even for a single season. That’s terrifying.
"Sure, but these guys didn’t have Lawrence’s pedigree!"
Are you sure about that?
- Blake Bortles – 3rd overall pick, 1st quarterback drafted
- David Carr – 1st overall pick, 1st quarterback drafted
- Jared Goff – 1st overall pick, 1st quarterback drafted
- Joey Harrington – 3rd overall pick, 2nd quarterback drafted
- Josh Rosen – 10th overall pick, 4th quarterback drafted
- Rick Mirer – 2nd overall pick, 2nd quarterback drafted
- Ryan Leaf – 2nd overall pick, 2nd quarterback drafted
Seven of these comparables were high-end draft picks and considered franchise cornerstones. And two of them – Carr and Goff – were first overall selections, just like Lawrence.
Ch..ch..ch..changes
When a franchise struggles as mightily as the Jaguars have, massive changes welcome. But are they enough to offset how poorly Lawrence played?
Doug Pederson is an improvement, but…
Betting on Doug Pederson improving the offense is a smart play. But how much improvement should we expect, particularly in Year One? Pederson spent three seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator from 2013 through 2015. While that experience was invaluable in preparing for his head coaching career, let’s not forget Andy Reid was the architect of the offense and the Chiefs' play-caller. He then became the Philadelphia Eagles head coach in 2016 and spent five seasons at the helm. Eagles fans will forever love Pederson because he led the team to its first Super Bowl victory in the 2017 season – against the New England Patriots, no less.
While Pederson’s time in Philadelphia was an unqualified success, it’s important to note how much the 2017 season was an outlier.
TABLE: Eagles Offensive League Rankings under Doug Pederson, with and without Frank Reich
| Year | Tot Yds | Pts | RuSH AttS | RuSH YdS | RuSH TDS | Pa AttS | Pa YdS | Pa TDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 24 | 28 |
| 2017 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 1 |
| 2018 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 2019 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 12 |
| 2020 | 24 | 26 | 23 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 24 |
| Avg | 16.2 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 16.4 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 15.2 |
| with Reich | 14.5 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 9.5 | 18.5 | 14.5 |
| without Reich | 17.3 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 15.7 |
The Pederson-led Eagles ranked 16th and 15th in yards and points scored, respectively. A vast improvement from Jacksonville’s 27th and 32nd rankings, but hardly the stuff of fantasy greatness. More ominously, the Eagles' offense took a big step backward once offensive coordinator Frank Reich left for the Indianapolis Colts.
Offensive line still offensive?
The Jaguars had the league’s worst offensive line last season, and Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti ranks them 27th this year. That 27th-place ranking accounts for the addition of All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff. Things are bleak and without a good offensive line, expecting meaningful fantasy improvement is illogical.
Projected Starting Offensive Line
- Left Tackle – Cam Robinson (48th-ranked tackle in 2021, per Pro Football Focus)
- Left Guard – Ben Bartch (52nd-ranked guard)
- Center – Tyler Shatley (27th-ranked center)
- Right Guard – Brandon Scherff (13th-ranked guard)
- Right Tackle – Jawaan Taylor (67th-ranked tackle)
Rookie Luke Fortner could win the center job quickly, allowing Shatley to push Bartch at guard. If those dominoes fall, the offensive line has a chance to go from bleak to just below average. But there’s no path to elite performance this season.
The Supporting Cast has Improved
The good news is Lawrence's supporting cast has improved regardless of whether the offensive line is better.
- Christian Kirk signed as the new No. 1 receiver
- Zay Jones added for receiver depth
- Evan Engram signed as the new No. 1 tight end
- Travis Etienne is healthy after a lost rookie season and ready to be the No. 1 tailback
PROJECTIONS AND STATS
| Season | Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | TuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | JAX | 17 | 359 | 602 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 73 | 334 | 2 | 5 |
| Season | Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | TuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Footballguys Consensus | 16.7 | 386.8 | 602.5 | 4149 | 23.3 | 15.5 | 77.2 | 356 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | Anthony Amico | 17.0 | 425.0 | 650.6 | 4681 | 27.9 | 17.5 | 77.3 | 354 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | Sigmund Bloom | 17.0 | 355.0 | 578.0 | 3769 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 75.0 | 331 | 2.0 | 6.0 |
| 2022 | Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 373.5 | 550.8 | 3989 | 23.5 | 14.8 | 72.1 | 349 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| 2022 | Bob Henry | 16.5 | 402.0 | 630.0 | 4320 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 84.0 | 390 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | Maurile Tremblay | 16.7 | 367.0 | 593.0 | 3849 | 21.8 | 18.3 | 69.0 | 333 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 2022 | Jason Wood | 17.0 | 373.0 | 580.0 | 3965 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 75.0 | 340 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
Final Thoughts
Trevor Lawrence is among the trendiest quarterbacks in the analyst community. Our staff named him one of the best values at the position. While his pedigree is undeniable, and the surrounding environment improved from last year’s disaster, history overwhelmingly supports a disappointing career trajectory. If you’re drafting Lawrence as a clear-cut No. 2 and treating him as a lottery ticket – by all means. Unfortunately, too many of you think you’re securing your starter and a massive value play. Caveat Emptor. Nothing is more predictive than what we’ve seen a player do on an NFL field. To be as excited about Lawrence as many appear to be, you’re choosing to ignore the most predictive factors in favor of a narrative. Could it work out? Absolutely. But the odds are against you and Lawrence.
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