Leonard Fournette is Grossly Underpriced

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Last year, Leonard Fournette slid into the eighth round of fantasy football drafts. It made sense at the time. His fantastic playoff sample was small enough to ignore. Ronald Jones II remained a frustrating thorn in his side. And the acquisition of Giovani Bernard appeared to cap his upside as a pass-catcher.

Fournette finished as the RB4 in per-game PPR scoring despite all those concerns. He led all running backs in targets per game. He was third in red-zone opportunities. He played a three-down role on one of the league's most explosive offenses. Surely, fantasy managers have adjusted, and Fournette is getting drafted as a consensus first-rounder now, right?

WRONG!

Fournette is coming off the board in the early-third round (according to Underdog Fantasy ADP), setting him up as one of fantasy's best bargains again.

Leonard Fournette:
• Led RBs in targets per game
• Top-10 in carries from red-zone and 10-yard line
• 2nd-most red-zone targets among RBs
• 4th in PPR scoring per game (behind Henry, Taylor, Ekeler)
• Tampa Bay was 3rd in plays per game
• No mo' RoJo

Current ADP: RB13? pic.twitter.com/zg9hUfGcV4

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) May 24, 2022

Why Isn't Fournette a Consensus First-Rounder?

For whatever reason, Fournette's name causes a visceral reaction among fantasy managers. Let's address those issues and misconceptions head-on.

"He's old."

Fournette will be 27 this year, which is the age we typically see running backs dip in production. Here are a few other backs that will be above age 26 this year: Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Derrick Henry. A group of elite running backs came into the league between 2016 and 2018. While it's quickly approaching, it's foolish to think that all of these backs suddenly fall off the age cliff. Next to Elliott, Fournette has the best pedigree of the bunch. After a stellar career at LSU, Fournette was selected fourth overall in his class. There's a direct correlation between draft capital and longevity, and Fournette probably has a few high-level seasons in him.

"He's injury-prone."

He seeks contact and thrives between the tackles. Despite his penchant for big hits, he's been more reliable than people realize. Since missing half of his Year 2 campaign, he's played a minimum of 13 games in every season since. Let's look at the durability of comparable backs drafted between 2016 and 2018.

While it's true that he's missed more games than average, his 85.7-percent availability since his injury-plagued 2018 campaign is very impressive. Only Dalvin Cook has shown more significant durability growth over the last three seasons. Since 2019, Fournette suited up for as many games as Kamara and Chubb, with only Elliott and Jones playing in more. With all running banks having an available 49 games since the start of 2019, here are their rates since then.

"He's a bad pass-catcher."

This point shouldn't need to be addressed, but it's a common misconception. His receiving numbers in 2021 were fantastic! Whether looking at volume, efficiency, or productivity, Fournette put up career-best receiving numbers in 2021.

Here is how he ranked among qualifying running backs:

• 6.0 targets per game (1st)
• 69 receptions (3rd)
• 454 receiving yards (4th)
• 449 yards after catch (4th)
• 323 routes run (4th)
• 14.0% target share (6th)
• 6.0% drop rate (8th)
• 1.41 yards per route run (18th)
• 11.4 receptions per broken tackle (20th)

And while catching feather-soft check-down passes from Tom Brady makes life easy, Fournette hauled in 76-of-100 targets from Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles during his final year in Jacksonville. Since college, he's been a solid pass-catcher and finally has a quarterback that allows him to excel in that role.

Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette

When Leonard Fournette was inexplicably released less than two weeks before the 2020 season, plenty of pundits deemed it the nail in the coffin. It took less than a week for the Buccaneers to swoop in and sign him. Later that day, Fournette tweeted a picture of him and Tom Brady together, and they've been seemingly great friends ever since.

Me & @TomBrady like Ace and Mitch pic.twitter.com/6OBrx2JCRr

— 7⃣ Leonard Fournette (@_fournette) September 7, 2020

There is plenty of unwarranted judgment surrounding Fournette. But even his harshest critics concede he's well-rounded. Yes, he's a hard-nosed downhill runner. But he does all the little things well, too. In three seasons in Jacksonville, he allowed four sacks on 149 pass-blocking snaps. His blocking effectiveness has only increased since becoming a Buccaneer. That advantage keeps Brady upright and Fournette in the backfield.

Leonard Fournette allowed zero sacks on 39 pass-blocking opportunities last year.

Giovani Bernard allowed two sacks on 25.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn allowed one sack on 15.

Ronald Jones II allowed one sack on 10.

Fournette knows how to secure a job. Protect Tom Brady at all costs.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) June 2, 2022

In addition to plucking blitzing defenders, Fournette protects the ball exceptionally well. After Ronald Jones II' well-documented struggles with fumbles and drops, Fournette's signing felt very intentional. He joined Tampa Bay with just three fumbles in three years with Jacksonville. After two years and 408 touches with the Buccaneers, he has coughed up the ball just once. As we noted earlier, his drop rate and catch rank within the Top 10 for running backs.

Fournette is a phenomenal athlete. At 6-foot-0 and 228 pounds, he fits the prototypical mold for a workhorse running back. His size-adjusted speed score ranks in the 92nd-percentile. Despite his thick stature, he possesses eye-popping quickness and burst. But his sharpest skill is arguably between the ears. The Buccaneers' run-blocking has been above average the last two seasons, and Fournette's patience and feel for the game leads to chunk plays. Fournette regularly dances behind the line waiting for his blockers to seal a block before exploding through a crease.

These things matter when playing with Brady. In New England, Bill Belichick rotated through running backs on rookie deals, giving each player a hyper-specialized and situational role. This offseason, Tampa Bay committed $21 million to Fournette, which is massive money for a running back in today's NFL. The differences in front office philosophies are evident, but Brady maintains the same high expectations for his running backs. Fournette checks all the boxes.

Offseason Changes

Although Bruce Arians stepped down as head coach, he will remain with the organization as "Senior Football Consultant." Byron Leftwich remains offensive coordinator and won't change much, considering the offense has been elite with Brady for two seasons.

Following the front office shuffle, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport confirmed little change in game-planning and philosophy.

From NFL Now: #Bucs OC Byron Leftwich said the offense won't change with Bruce Arians no longer in charge. He's 100% right. Here is why... pic.twitter.com/m7uMlQHgbu

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) May 10, 2022

Once again, the Buccaneers will focus on an up-tempo pace and pass-happy attack. Brady's short and high-percentage throws work as an extension of the run game and subsequently pull defenses forward, which allows for deep shots downfield. The Buccaneers were first in pass rate and third in pace of play last year. Unsurprisingly that translated to career-high pass attempts (719) and passing yards (5,316) for Brady.

More departures than arrivals

Kansas City signed Ronald Jones II. Antonio Brown's career likely ended with his shirtless stunt in Week 17. O.J. Howard went to Buffalo. Chris Godwin will miss camp and possibly some early-season games as he recovers from an ACL tear. Rob Gronkowski has yet to decide his future. Russell Gage was the only offensive skill player signed in free agency despite all of the departures. Running back Rachaad White and tight end Cade Otton were drafted as well. Looking at who left and joined the team in recent months, it certainly appears to be a less-talented group. Fournette, Mike Evans, Scott Miller, Cyril Grayson, Tyler Johnson, and Cameron Brate are the only remaining pass-catchers from the 2020 Super Bowl-winning roster. Brady will rely on veterans he trusts at this stage of his career, setting the table for another heavy-usage season from Fournette.

Rookie White is an excellent pass-catcher. But his pass protection is problematic and will limit his time on the field, at least early in the season.

The offensive line may take a step back. The team lost both Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet. Veteran Shaq Mason was brought in to compete, but he's not at their level. As camp develops, we'll get more clarity. But having Donovan Smith at left tackle, Ryan Jensen at center, Shaq Mason at right guard, and Tristan Wirfs at right tackle should keep them towards the top of the league.

Donovan Smith might have had the best block of the entire week yesterday to help spring Fournette for the game-winner. pic.twitter.com/oKkr1xV949

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) November 29, 2021

Stats and Projections

So, where should Leonard Fournette be drafted?

I have Fournette ranked right below Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. He's in a tier with Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and DAndre Swift. Pass-catching backs give you a considerable advantage in PPR leagues and are worth aggressively targeting. According to our own Dan Hindery, a target last year was worth over 2.5 times more than a rushing attempt. In addition to voluminous pass-catching, Fournette should retain his work near the end zone. The Buccaneers' scheme and tempo should offer plenty of opportunities to catch passes and score touchdowns. There are reasonable concerns about the offensive line and a longer-term threat for snaps from Rachaad White. But expect Fournette to pick up where he left off last season as an elite fantasy asset.

Luckily, Fournette can be had in the second or third round right now, which is a tremendous value. Expect his ADP to climb in the coming months, but don't be afraid to target him unless he creeps into the top of the first round.

Follow @DaveKluge