The Cautionary Tale of Cam Akers

Photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea, USA Today Sports

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Let's start this story with a look back. In late November 2021, rumors began to swirl regarding Cam Akers. After tearing his Achilles in July, the stories were that he was ready to start practicing and could play again by the end of the season.

When this news dropped, most fantasy managers fell into two camps:

• They didn't believe it was possible OR
• They immediately put in a waiver claim

However, as the season neared its close, the rumors soon became fact, and Akers was ready to return to the Rams.

By all medical accounts, it was an incredibly fast recovery from a severe injury. It was also Week 18 when Akers took the field; the fantasy season was over for most.

Heading in the 2022 season, Akers is being drafted as a top-25 running back, and expectations are high that he can outperform that draft price. Unfortunately, looking at the situation in its totality, Akers is more likely to disappoint fantasy managers and leave you wondering what might have been, both with his career and your fantasy season.

Akers Pre-Injury

Before we even get into the injury, let's look back at Akers' rookie year. The Rams drafted him in the 2nd Round of 2020, the same year they let Todd Gurley walk in free agency. At that time, the team had Akers, Darrell Henderson, and Malcolm Brown at the position.

Henderson hurt his hamstring in the preseason but would return by the season's start. However, the time he missed cost him playing time, so Akers and Brown were going to lead the charge heading into Week 1.

After splitting time 50/50 with Brown in Week 1, Akers sustained a rib injury in Week 2 and would miss the next three games. Even upon his return, he didn't touch the ball again until Week 8. All in all, the rib injury spoiled the first two months of his rookie season.

Akers finished his first year with 145 carries for 625 yards and two touchdowns. Looking at those numbers, it isn't immediately evident where the hype started, but it becomes clearer looking at his last five games and the playoffs.

Cam Akers' Last Seven Games of 2020

Over the last six weeks of the regular season, a crucial part of the fantasy season, Akers ranked RB18 despite only playing five games. He missed the Week 16 game with an ankle sprain. When you take those games and add the two playoff games that year, Akers had 141 carries for 645 yards and four touchdowns. He also added 11 receptions for 147 yards. For fantasy, that would get you just over 16 points per game, which would have put him in the Top 10 of running backs in 2020.

He performed well during the fantasy playoffs, and managers were ready for a better second season. But, the train got derailed before it left the station. He tore his Achilles in July and was thought to be done for the year. Instead, Akers defied reality and was able to play just five months later.

Of course, some would say he came back too soon. You might feel the same when looking at other running backs with this injury and Akers' stats upon his return.

The Achilles Case Studies

When he sustained his injury, Akers was tied to two names: fellow running backs DOnta Foreman and Marlon Mack. Foreman tore his Achilles in November 2017, and Mack tore his in September 2020. This is where the cautionary tale begins.

Starting with Foreman, a third-round pick back in 2017. He appeared in 10 games for Houston before the Achilles tear. After missing the rest of 2017, he attempted to return for the team's Week 16 game in 2018. He carried the ball seven times for a one-yard loss.

After that, he sat out all of the 2019 season. Then, in 2020, he joined the Tennessee Titans as a backup to Derrick Henry. Foreman put up respectable stats lines in his two seasons with Tennessee and returned to his 4.3 career yards per carry. It took him almost three seasons to get back to any semblance of his old form.

DOnta Foreman Career Stats

We still haven't seen that progress from Marlon Mack. He was injured early in 2020 and made no miraculous recovery, so we didn't see him again until last season.

In 2021, Mack was a healthy scratch in more than half of the Colts' games. Over the six games he played, he ran 28 times for 101 yards (3.6 yards per carry).

Pre-Achilles injury, Mack was a 4.6 yards-per-carry back. He is now in Houston and allegedly healthy. But until we see it on the field, no one is drafting Marlon Mack before the 10th round of 12-team redraft leagues.

Marlon Mack Career Stats

Akers did make a superhuman recovery and returned just months, not years, after his injury. But, like Foreman and Mack, he was a shadow of his former self. Between the last regular season game and playoffs, Akers turned 72 carries into 175 yards (2.4 yards per rush), zero touchdowns, and two lost fumbles.

Akers is just now one year removed from the Achilles injury, expecting 2022 to be a total return to form belies history. More importantly, there are better options available at his current ADP.

Look AT Who You Are Ignoring

The calculus would be more favorable if Cam Akers were a seventh or eighth-round fantasy pick. But fantasy managers are treating him like an early-round cornerstone. Akers has the 18th highest ADP of any running back. At that cost, Akers has to start for you in Week 1 and anchor your roster. More importantly, you're leaving better players in the pool.

At running back, Antonio Gibson, last year's No. 10 running back, and Josh Jacobs, No. 12 last year, are still available when you take Akers. Looking further down, you can take a wide receiver or tight end here, and land Damien Harris, the 14th best running back last year, three rounds later.

Speaking of wide receivers, remember Cooper Kupp was a fourth- or fifth-round pick last year. Players with league-winning potential are available at the same point you’re gambling on an Achille recovery. Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, and Courtland Sutton are all going in this range this season. Each of them is the No. 1 receiver on their teams with improving offensive outlooks.

Cam Akers can be a special player. When it comes to injury recovery, he is already a superstar. But, for fantasy drafts, the risk that he is 3-yard-per-carry back, unable to handle a full workload again looms large.

If you draft Cam Akers, you must invest in your third and fourth back early as insurance. Better yet, leave him to be another manager's headache and focus on safer players, like those mentioned above. They all have a similar upside to Akers, but the risk is far minimized.

Footballguys 2022 Projections

Final Thoughts

Cam Akers' return from a torn Achilles is heroic and unprecedented. But there's a difference between returning to the field and returning to form. Fantasy managers are paying a top-20 price for a guy who, even when he was healthy, hadn't proven capable of shouldering a heavy load for long stretches. When you consider the opportunity cost of who you're passing up in the same round, whether it be a more proven running back in a lead role like Antonio Gibson or Josh Jacobs, or an alpha receiver like Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore, and Terry McLaurin, it's even harder to justify the selection.