All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week.
SLATE LANDSCAPE
To finish in the top 1% of the field, your lineup must be a unique paring of correlation, quality one-offs, and low ownership. We'd all be millionaires if it were as simple as playing the highest projected lineup with the lowest projected ownership.
The first step in the process is identifying the roster construction the field will likely land on so you know where you need to pivot.
QUARTERBACK LANDSCAPE
This week’s slate is a two-man race between Jalen Hurts ($7,600/17.7%) and Josh Allen ($8,200/15.4%). Both Hurts and Allen are projected to double the next highest roster percentage at quarterback. We have Hurts projected to outscore Allen by .2 points while Hurts offers $600 in salary relief.
Through two weeks Allen looks to be leading one of the most prolific offenses in recent history. His start has been reminiscent of Dak Prescott’s two seasons ago. The Bills are first in the league in pass rate over expectation, facing off against another top-5 passing offense in the Dolphins. The pace should be slightly above average with the chance to have the top blown off if Tua Tagovailoa can click with his top targets once again. Allen seems unstoppable, but his roster percentage has us taking a hard look at other options.
Hurts has failed to match Allen’s productivity as a passer, but he has made up for the difference in rushing upside. He is 11th overall in rushing on 28 attempts through two games. Hurts has the exact same number of rushing attempts as Justin Fields has passing attempts on the season. The Commanders have given up some huge rushing performances and we expect week three to be no different. If we’re going to pay top dollar for a quarterback with a projected roster percentage of 15%, we may as well save $600 with Hurts over Allen.
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