DraftKings GPP Domination Week 13

Important Article Announcement

I can’t apologize enough for this article coming out as late as it has this season. When I took over this article mid-season it was adding to an already full schedule. What I’ve come to realize is that trying to release this article on Saturday with the most updated information is not possible. This article takes about 6-8 hours to write in combination of our Cracking FanDuel article which is the most read article on the site.

Going forward, this article will be released on Friday Nights. I will still be writing this article going forward, however it will have more speculation plays and will not be able to address every injury news that comes out on Saturday. Hopefully this is received positively as I’m trying to get this article out to as many of you as possible.

If you have any concerns or feedback about this article in general please reach out to me via email at Knotts@footballguys.com

Know Your Opposition

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

Slate Overview- Great GPP Week

This is shaping up to be one of the best GPP weeks of the season. As we are writing this on Saturday December 3^rd, there are very little injury situations we need to worry about, and while that could all change as there are a number of questionable situations as it stands right now there are going to be plenty of options without any must-play type situations.

There are a number of games this week that all have shootout potential, and while everyone is going to be targeting the Kansas City vs Cincinnati game, here are some other games that have shootout potential:

• Jacksonville at Detroit O/U 51
• LA Chargers at Las Vegas O/U 49.5
• NY Jets at Minnesota O/U 44.5
• Miami at San Francisco O/U 45.5

Stacks

Top Stack

Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler

Josh Jacobs is going to be extremely popular this week (25%+) which means that the pivot should ultimately go to Davante Adams and Derek Carr through the passing game as there is a scenario in which this game shoots out, and both Adams and Carr have a massive performance. Carr and Adams are both projecting to be around 7-10% rostered in most GPP’s, which is likely due to Adams’ price at $8,700 which is a tough price to pay this week.

The thinking behind stacking them with Austin Ekeler instead of a player like a Keenan Allen is really for a few different reasons. If the Chargers get out to an early lead, Ekeler has the most touchdowns on the team and could very easily be rushing those in, but if the Chargers fall behind, we’ve seen games where Ekeler has 10+ receptions which is something that he has done three times over the last six games. The Raiders secondary is among the worst in the NFL this season, but they are the worst in terms of receiving yards allowed to running backs as they’re allowing 54 yards receiving per game. It’s not typical to stack a running back with an opposing quarterback and a wide receiver, but this may be a lone case where this pays off.

Under the Radar Stacks

Mike White, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson

This one is a bit weird. Mike White is currently projected to be rostered on just 2% of lineups, but in 2 of his 3 starts in the NFL he has topped 300-yards. This is a Jets team that looked reinvigorated with the team having benched Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson is going to be popular, however you can be different by stacking with White as most will use Wilson as a complimentary piece rather than a primary stacking piece in their lineup. The way to compete against the Vikings is through the air as they boast one of the league’s best run defenses yet one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season. The Vikings are allowing 293 yards passing per game which is the most in the NFL this season and with the Jets being shorthanded missing Michael Carter expect them to throw early and often this week.

Justin Jefferson is going to be rostered at around 5% of lineups, which to get Justin Jefferson at 5% regardless of matchups is too low regardless of the matchup. The matchup is a neutral one, but the Jets have allowed 5 receivers to top 90 yards this season.

Fade Stacks

Trevor Lawrence, Zay Jones, Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Detroit vs Jacksonville game is going to one of the most stacked games on this slate. The reasoning is the high O/U total, and both offenses being in the top-10 of total yards. However, from a passing perspective, these are two teams that are league average when it comes to passing yards per game as the Lions are averaging 233.5 passing which is 12^th while the Jaguars are averaging 229.1 which is 13^th. Both Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff have thrown for 300-yards just twice this season, and Lawrence was last week which is why there is so much excitement as he’s taking on a team that is now facing the team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

While this game certainly could be a back and forth high-scoring game, it does seem a little bit like point chasing given the Jaguars win against the Ravens last week. If it is a close game, we could very easily see both team’s rushing attacks dominate in what could be a close game. At 11% rostered for Trevor Lawrence, and potentially 20%+ for both Jones and St. Brown, the percentages are simply too high, and you can differentiate yourself by not stacking this game. If you want to take one of St. Brown or Jones on a stand alone basis because of the value, that’s more than fine, but with all of the high scoring potential games on this slate, taking the one that people are most attracted to does not seem to be the right move.

Position Breakdown

The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Often times, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. A player who is representative of this is Justin Jefferson. While not on this slate, he always has upside to be included in a lineup. Please refer to the chart at the end of this article for full thoughts on player pool.

QUARTERBACK

High-End Play

Patrick Mahomes II- $8,300 7%

Patrick Mahomes II is a great GPP play just about any time that he is sub-10%. The reasoning here is that this is a player who is simply on fire when it comes to throwing the ball. Mahomes has topped 300-yards in six straight games, while now throwing for over 300-yards in more than 50% of his career. Mahomes this week is taking on a Bengals team that knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs in the AFC Conference Championship last season. While the Bengals overall numbers are solid this season as they are allowing the 5^th-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, that is largely fools gold. This is a Bengals defense that has faced arguably one of the easiest schedules when it comes to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve even started to struggle against them as Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, and Jacoby Brissett all threw for over 250 yards in three of the last four games. This is a defense that has faced one offense that is near the caliber of Kansas City which is Miami and the Dolphins threw for a combined 303 yards against them with Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater.

One of the best parts about Mahomes is the ability to stack him with anyone you want, often finding value in some of his third or fourth wide receivers such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce is the obvious one, and is certainly an option, but you can even stack him with both Kelce and a receiving option which all should be sub-5% rostered.

Justin Herbert- $7,200 4.5%

This one is a bit confusing as the Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Herbert is just $7,200 and only projected to be rostered by 5% of teams this week. Stacking drives roster percentages, and one of the knocks on Herbert is that it is somewhat difficult to find a true stacking pairing as you will have to go with an unnatural running back pairing such as Austin Ekeler or go with the oft-injured Keenan Allen. To be fair, both of these are great options this week even though they’re not something you want to target, but we already talked about Ekeler and his 10+ catch upside, but Allen is going to have a breakout game at some point this season. While Allen only has 7.5 targets per game over his last two games, he is a player who had 10 or more targets in 9 games last season.

Value Plays

Mike White- $5,400- 2%

I can’t get over how I’m seeing things just completely differently than the rest of the DFS industry. Mike White dating back to last season has looked great in his three starts and even in mid-game relief as he filled in for an injured Zach Wilson last season. This is a player who in his three games as a starter has thrown for over 300-yards, in two of them, Joe Flacco earlier this season threw for 280+ yards in every game and 300+ yards in two of his three games. Yet no one wants to play the Jets because they’re the Jets and they look at Zach Wilson’s stats and just want to avoid. Maybe, just maybe Zach Wilson is that bad and both Mike White and Joe Flacco are significantly better than him. The matchup is a great one as they’re taking on the Vikings who have a bottom 5 pass defense and a top 5 run defense. With the Jets being without Michael Carter expect a significant amount of attempts from the Jets this week.

Running Back

At the running back position this week, a lot of the roster percentage is going to focused in on the cheap backup running backs simply because of the lack of depth at the wide receiver position. This potentially opens up an opportunity to spend up on one of the better running backs on this slate as they will be lower rostered than they otherwise should be.

High-End Play-

Austin Ekeler- $8,600- 15%

We’ve already spoken about Ekeler and his potential upside numerous times already throughout this article. He is a fantastic play, and at 15% rostered is likely should be higher based on his upside.

Nick Chubb- $8,000- 9.0%

The Browns are in a bit of a unique spot this week as they technically are not out of the playoff race, but will need to just about win out to make a difference. The reason there is still hope is that they get Deshaun Watson back this week and are now facing the lowly Texans defense that has allowed a staggering 145 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs which is the worst in the NFL while also allowing the most fantasy points to the position. Chubb is a game script dependent running back, as in games that the Browns have won, he is averaging 118 yards rushing per game, while in losses he is averaging just 81 yards rushing per game.

Value Plays

Zonovan Knight- $4,600- 7%

I’m truly stunned that Zonovan Knight is only going to be 7% and if that is the case he is a fantastic play simply because of the value that is created in getting a low-rostered player at a fantastic price. While the 14 carries for Knight was nice, the reason that you should be interested in him this week is that he caught three passes and was on the field for 48% of the snaps in his first game as a rookie as he previously did not have a snap in the NFL. This is a player who the Jets could utilize to give them a spark and based on Mike White’s propensity to throw the ball to running backs, Knight could very easily catch 5 or more passes this week which if that happens he’s going to hit value at $4,600.

David Montgomery- $6,200 11%

Consistent volume was always the issue for David Montgomery as throughout his career when he is getting consistent volume more times than not he is able to be useful as both a runner and as a receiver. With Khalil Herbert going out, over the last two weeks Montgomery has averaged 17.5 touches per game which includes a game he very easily could have been game scripted out of as the Bears lost 31-10 to the Jets last week. This week, Montgomery gets to face a Packers team that we have to question where they are at as they are approaching a bye week on a season that has not gone to expectations. The Packers are 4-8, their run defense is allowing 127 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs which is the third-highest in the NFL, and they’re coming off of a game in which Philadelphia ran for 340 yards last week. Montgomery has already had success against this Packers team back when they had something to play for as he ran for 122 yards while adding an additional 14 through the air.

Fade

Dameon Pierce- $5,900- 20%

Dameon Pierce is a weird case, where seemingly everyone is ignoring the past two weeks, and just assuming that Pierce will get back to the workhorse that he was prior to the last two games. While the volume should go up as he had 10 carries and then 5 carries over the last two weeks, the production is the cause for concern. In the last two weeks, Pierce had 10 carries for 8 yards, and 5 carries for 8 yards as the rookie may be hitting the rookie wall as the 1-11-1 Texans need to figure out whether it is worth continuing to give big volumes to a player who will almost assuredly be in the mix for the starting position next season. The matchup is a good one as the Browns are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and their linebackers are some of the worst in the NFL, so if the Texans can keep this game close, they Pierce has the upside to get back to his 90+ yard performances, but there is definitely a floor where at 20% rostered he’s probably not worth it.

Wide Receiver

High-End Plays-

Already Discussed:

Justin Jefferson/Davante Adams are great high-end plays this week.

AJ Brown- $7,800- 4.4%

AJ Brown is being completely overlooked this week. While many are looking at the Eagles team total and immediately being drawn to Jalen Hurts based on his rushing upside that we saw last week where he ran for 157 yards, you need to be careful in thinking that Hurts will repeat that this week. The Titans have possibly the best run defense in the NFL this season as they have completely shut down the rushing ability of Josh Allen (10 yards), and Daniel Jones (25) yards. However, where this team falls apart is against the pass as they are allowing the second-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. This very easily could be a game in which Jalen Hurts becomes more of a passing threat which we have seen him do against teams that are able to take the running attack away. Hurts has two 300+ yard performances on the season and with no Dallas Goedert, it will be up to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith to do most of work here. At $7,800 the price is prohibitive, but that is what is driving the roster percentage as low as it is.

Mid-Range

Amari Cooper- $6,400 12%

The Browns are an interesting team this week. They’re projected to score the most points on this slate, but are not really being targeted in GPP’s as much as they should be. Amari Cooper is interesting simply because of Deshaun Watson’s history of locking on to number one receivers. Watson has had a 1,000 receiver in every one of his seasons as a starter in the NFL dating back to 2017, and with Cooper being the clear number one receiver in Cleveland, look for the two to synch up quickly. One thing to note here is that Watson has only been in the building for two weeks since the preseason as part of his suspension he was not allowed to practice with the team. The team could use this game as a preseason game where even if they’re up by a certain amount they’re going to try to build chemistry throughout the game in a number of different formations just to get reps in.

Brandon Aiyuk- $6,100- 4%

Brandon Aiyuk is in an interesting spot this week, as this game has the potential to be a shootout as the 49ers face the high-powered Dolphins defense. The 49ers are without Eli Mitchell, and both Christian McCaffrey/Deebo Samuel are questionable heading into this game. Aiyuk has been consistent over the last six games as he’s averaging 17.5 DraftKings points with a ceiling of 28 points. If Deebo is less than 100%, the 49ers are going to need to look towards Aiyuk especially if the Dolphins are able to get out to an early lead with their offense that is seemingly matchup proof.

Bottom of the Barrel-

You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary

Donovan Peoples-Jones
Van Jefferson
Chris Moore
Nico Collins
Kendall Hinton
Drake London

Tight End

High-End Play

Travis Kelce- $7,900 9.5%

There’s not much more that needs to be said about Travis Kelce other than he should be in play almost every week. Almost every week he is going under-rostered compared to where he should be simply based on it being difficult to find a path to afford him. However, this week in what should be the highest scoring game of the week, Kelce gets to face a Bengals defense that has struggled at stopping tight ends as Pat Freiermuth just two weeks ago had 8 receptions for 79 yards while also going for 75 yards earlier in the season, Mark Andrews had 8 for 89 and a touchdown, while Tyler Conklin also had 8 for 79. The Bengals have not shut down a single quality tight end that they have faced.

Value Plays

There’s really not much of a difference between the value tight ends this week. Some potential targets are below if you’re looking to punt the position.

• Cole Kmet $3,800- 3.2%
• Tyler Conklin $3,100- 5.5%
• Hayden Hurst $3,500- 9.4%

Player Pool