Week 16 gives us a 10-game Christmas Eve slate that is heavily impacted by weather. It is always difficult to find the right balance when adjusting expectations based upon conditions and matchups. There is danger both in going too far (ignoring good players in bad spots) and not going far enough (discounting the impact of weather/matchup). Nailing this balance will be the key to success in Week 16.
One way to visualize expected Week 16 scoring versus what each team has done all season is to compare the Vegas Implied team totals to each team’s average points scored on the season (hat tip to Jason Wood for the idea). In the table below, you can see each team’s implied team total compared to their average scoring this season and the percent difference:
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