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Week 16 gives us a 10-game Christmas Eve slate that is heavily impacted by weather. It is always difficult to find the right balance when adjusting expectations based upon conditions and matchups. There is danger both in going too far (ignoring good players in bad spots) and not going far enough (discounting the impact of weather/matchup). Nailing this balance will be the key to success in Week 16.
One way to visualize expected Week 16 scoring versus what each team has done all season is to compare the Vegas Implied team totals to each team’s average points scored on the season (hat tip to Jason Wood for the idea). In the table below, you can see each team’s implied team total compared to their average scoring this season and the percent difference:
As you can see, 80% of the teams on the slate are expected to score less than usual. 55% of the teams have implied team totals at least 10% lower than their season average. It could be an ugly week.
In terms of bright spots, the team totals are not high for either the Giants or Titans but neither team has been an offensive juggernaut this season, so it is par for the course. All things considered, it looks like an above average spot for both star running backs Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Both will be understandably popular. We can also see expectations for Minnesota and Kansas City are right in line with season totals, which means we should expect typically stellar results for players like Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes II.
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